March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Monday closed up +0.06 (+0.41%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -4.70 (-1.12%).
NY sugar prices closed higher on Monday due to the weak dollar, but London sugar closed lower.
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Higher global sugar production is weighing on sugar prices. Unica reported last Wednesday that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through December rose by +0.9% y/y to 40.222 MMT. Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.82% in 2025/36 from 48.16% in 2024/25.
The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported last Monday that India’s 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 is up +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT. The ISMA on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
Sugar prices have been under pressure amid prospects of higher sugar exports from India, after India’s food secretary said the government may permit additional sugar exports to reduce a domestic supply glut. In November, India’s food ministry said it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.
The outlook for a global sugar surplus is weighing on prices. Covrig Analytics on December 12 raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT in October. However, Covrig projects that the 2026/27 global sugar surplus will fall to 1.4 MMT, as weak prices discourage production.
The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT.
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