The Seattle Mariners made a pre-trade deadline move as they try to end the longest active playoff drought among the North American “Big Four” sports.
The Mariners acquired two-time All-Star pitcher Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds for four prospects on Friday night.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Mariners’ postseason odds, with odds via FOX Bet. For more baseball content, check out the MLB page at FOX Sports.
“He’s a stud that will help the Mariners in a big way down the stretch,” FOX Sports MLB betting analyst Edward Egros said. “The market does not have many starting arms available, and Seattle needed one, so this seems like a win for both teams.
“And given the Mariners’ playoff drought has lasted longer than any North American team in the men’s four major sports, it’s a move they had to make with a high likelihood of success.”
SEATTLE MARINERS POSTSEASON ODDS *
Mariners win American League West Division: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Mariners win AL pennant: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Mariners win World Series: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
= as of 7/30/2022
RELATED: Trade deadline tracker
BetMGM data specialist Drew O’Dell said the Mariners’ odds to win the American League pennant or World Series dropped following the trade. Seattle last made the postseason in 2001.
O’Dell said Seattle’s AL pennant odds dropped from +1800 to +1500 (+1400 at FOX Bet) and the Mariners’ chances to win it all went from +3500 to +3000. At FOX Bet, the M’s odds to win it all shortened from +4000 to +3000 after the Castillo acquisition.
O’Dell and FOX Bet sports trader Steven Hemke said the trade did not impact Seattle’s chances to win the AL West Division as the Houston Astros entered play Saturday with a 12-game lead. The Mariners entered Saturday in the second wild-card spot.
What the Seattle Mariners will be getting with Luis Castillo joining the team via trade
Check out some season highlights from Luis Castillo after he was acquired by the Seattle Mariners.
“During the Mariners 14-game win streak, I gave them a 40% chance to make the postseason,” Hemke said. “With this trade, I give the Mariners a 77% chance to make the postseason. The Blue Jays and Mariners have separated themselves from the Red Sox and Rays.”
Seattle is second in the AL in quality starts (48) and fourth in team ERA (3.65). Castillo is 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 90 strikeouts. Castillo’s salary is $7.35 million, and he’s under team control through the 2023 season.
“This strengthens their rotation down the stretch,” said Ryan Divish, who covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times. “They’ve been unbelievably lucky when it comes to the health of their starting pitchers. They’ve yet to have a pitcher miss a start due to injury or spend any time on the injured list.
“There was also the issue of George Kirby’s overall workload. The rookie right-hander has thrown just 69 1/3 innings, and they won’t push him over 120-130 innings this season.”
The prospects the Mariners gave up are shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo and right-handers Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore. Marte was the Mariners’ top-rated prospect, Arroyo was third and Stoudt fifth.
“You have to give up talent to get talent,” Divish said. “The two top prospects – Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo – have never played above the Class-A level.
“Marte is a physical specimen – 6-foot-3, 200-plus pounds at age 21 – with power potential, but he likely won’t remain at shortstop. Most scouts believe that his poor fielding fundamentals and lack of arm strength will force him to left field.
“Arroyo might end up being the best player of the group. He’s a plus defensive shortstop with speed and athleticism. There were questions about his hitting. He’s had a breakout this season at the Low-A level, surprising the Mariners with his bat-to-ball skills.”
Castillo joins 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and All-Star Home Run Derby sensation Julio Rodriguez in Seattle.
“I still only give the Mariners a 3.5% chance to win the World Series but at least they should get the chance come October for the first time in years,” Hemke said. “Any time you have Julio Rodriguez, three top-end starters and a solid bullpen, you can make some noise come playoff time.”
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