© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The outside of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14,2022 REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo
(Reuters) – The last month of 2023 included a rush of information about the health of the U.S. economy and the state of rate increases that a number of Federal Reserve authorities saw as assuring indications that their long battle versus inflation was on track to end with a “soft landing.”
The year started with prevalent expectations amongst economicexperts, and numerous Fed authorities themselves, that a economiccrisis would unfold under the weight of aggressive main bank interest rate boosts. It came to an end with lotsof positive that result might be prevented.
Moreover, Fed authorities in their last conference of the year indicated that the rate-increase cycle wasn’t simply over – a brand-new cycle of rate decreases was mostlikely in the cards for 2024.
The reasonably benign run of figures that set the phase for that is, of course, now history, and simply how quickly authorities can turn to that policy pivot rests on what the information in 2024 brings.
That rush starts in the veryfirst 2 weeks of the year with significant readings of the task market, customer costs and inflation due as the year kicks off.
Here is a guide to some of the numbers shaping the policy dispute:
INFLATION (PCE launched Dec. 22; next release CPI, Jan. 11):
Annual inflation by the Fed’s chosen Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index fell to 2.6% in November and on a month-to-month basis rates decreased for the veryfirst ti