Let’s begin with the simplest and most obvious observation: A majority of Americans prefer what Donald Trump has been selling over Kamala Harris. It’s hard to stomach, because this election offered a pretty clear choice between a cheerful and humane future and a rapturously brutish one. But the latter won out. More Americans wanted the 1939 German-American Bund–style hate rally at Madison Square Garden than the big-tent party with high ideals about the American constitutional order. And we can no longer reassure ourselves, as we did in 2016, that Trump voters didn’t precisely know what they were getting or that much of what he promised to do was not to be taken seriously. We know what he’s about now, and a majority of voters clearly want it.
The country is set to change in stark ways, as Project 2025 jumps from the pages of a far-right dream journal into our lives. There will be big rollbacks in the civil rights many of us have come to enjoy, causing disproportionate pain to women and members of the LGBTQ community. I feel terribly for all the people who voted to protect reproductive freedoms in their states because the effort may be all for naught. As we have relentlessly explained on TNR’s pages, Trump’s Department of Justice can create a national abortion ban by enforcing the Comstock Act, thus bypassing the legislative process and the will of voters entirely. Wherever reproductive rights have managed to secure a haven in a state constitution, those rights will be fought over in inhospitable venues, like the Supreme Court.
Trump’s signature policy proposal is a mass deportation scheme that will target legal citizens for “remigration” alongside the undocumented. The regulatory state will be transformed into something that serves corporations instead of the public. The civil service, as I have mentioned before, will be reconfigured into something that, at best, may look like the “spoils system” of yesteryear; more likely it will exist to dole out punishments to Trump’s political opponents. Imagine a world in which blue states don’t receive disaster relief; where Democrats don’t get their Social Security checks.
Part of Trump’s second-term agenda includes a plan to crush left-liberal organizing. The movement to end the war in Gaza, which was highly effective in shifting public opinion on Israel’s ongoing military assault, will feel this hammer blow first. Trump has been lately dogged by generals who opposed his fascist inclinations; his future generals will be much less reluctant. Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito will retire and be replaced by younger versions of themselves. Probably worst of all, the timeline on permanent climate catastrophe has moved up—it’s not unfair to say that we may soon arrive at a point of no return (though my strong suspicion is that we have reached it already).
At the moment, I can’t exactly figure out what kind of Democratic Party emerges from the wreckage of this election. Harris ran a distinctly centrist style of politics, for which influential members of the punditocracy and the party’s most entrenched elites had long agitated. This approach flopped, badly. This brand of politics makes complete sense on paper to a lot of people who now need to contend with the fact that the voters that Democrats need the most to win presidential elections are rejecting it in substantial numbers.
But these failures are not the biggest problem Democrats face. The real crisis is that all the roads ahead are fraught with peril. The country has clearly tacked to the right in substantial ways. It’s going to make sense to a lot of Democrats to keep chasing the electorate in that direction. But a party that, in 2024, was only really defending a narrow portfolio of traditionally Democratic principles ceases to be the Democratic Party in any meaningful sense if they abandon those few battlements which they’ve retained the courage to defend. Tacking right might be a path to power, but we should dispense with the delusion that a Democratic Party choosing this path would continue to be a liberal party. Rather, it would come to reside in the same ideological province of the pre-Trump Republican Party—and remember, that’s a movement that Trumpism dispatched far more rapidly and soundly than the Democrats.
At the same time, organizing the party around a bolder, leftward direction is difficult to fathom. A more leftist set of domestic policy prescriptions requires its proponents to run the sort of piping-hot, high-spending economy that Biden attempted—and probably to a greater extent than Biden was willing to go. The failure of Bidenomics to impress the very voters it strove so mightily to help will make politicians extremely skittish about taking that approach again anytime soon. But even if Democrats were brave enough to let it rip, bolder policies also require a functioning administrative state to administer them. Right now, the Supreme Court is not committed to the administrative state’s survival and is more likely to keep dismantling it. So a Democratic Party that shifts in this direction is destined to make a ton of near-term promises that it can’t fulfill and risk making voters more cynical about government, which helps strongmen like Trump stay in power.
All that said, Trump might very well run up against the problem of unfulfillable promises a lot sooner than the Democrats. Trumpism has always been a slow march into the thickets of its own policy paradoxes, and this will only grow more pronounced as all the reins and fetters that impeded Trump’s first-term ambitions come off in the second. Here, the laws of gravity snap back with a vengeance. Trump cannot deport millions of people without sending the economy into a doom spiral. He can’t create a more efficient government by asking a noodlehead failure like Elon Musk to manage it. He can’t put a quack like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in charge of public health without people getting a lot sicker. You can’t make America great again while destroying the regulatory regime that keeps a staggering range of everyday harms at bay: coal ash spills and E. coli and shoddy building construction and, lest we forget, pandemics. And, no, you can’t arrest climate change by pretending it’s not happening.
The problem, of course, is that the rug-pull always arrives too late for the conned to prevent. While we are waiting for these bills to come due, however, Trump will probably manage to keep two of his promises: He will duck accountability for the malfeasances for which he’s already facing judgment in various legal fora (and likely extend this privilege to a grip of bad actors, beginning with the January 6 rioters), and he will hurt the people he deems to be his enemy. Those supporters who are inclined to dole out punishments of their own will feel a freer hand to do so. This is going to be an immediately more dangerous country to reside in for lots of Americans.
This has, unfortunately, been the cauldron in which recent Democratic electoral successes have been conjured: The collapsed reality and widespread destruction wrought from GOP misrule provokes a backlash that drives up enough public support for a change. This is how we got Barack Obama and Joe Biden to the White House. This is also the widening gyre in which we’re now trapped: Republican failures, and the intense period of crisis management that follows, have made it harder for Democrats to build anything of their own that’s truly enduring, which in turn gives them little to run on. I’m left with the strong impression that the only thing most people know about Democrats is that they didn’t want Trump to be president.
As Talking Points Memo’s Josh Marshall noted on election night, “Incumbent parties have been losing in basically every industrial democracy since the pandemic.” Perhaps this outcome was predetermined. But it wasn’t our fate to end up with, as Marshall described, “Trump, with his degenerate, autocratic ways” as the alternative. That a cruel president is returning to office on the promise of doubling down on the cruelty speaks to something really unpleasant about ourselves. There was a notion, once, that Obama’s election indicated that the United States was closer than ever to becoming the nation we were always destined to be. With Trump’s reelection, we should reckon with the dreadful possibility that New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie is correct when he says, “Most of us will probably die living in the political order that will emerge out of this election.”
This article first appeared in Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here.
Our exhausting permanent presidential campaigns eventually lead us to this point: less than one month to go, the home stretch, the closing argument. It’s taken a lot for Democrats to reach this point with a real shot at actually winning the presidency, but it will still be a white-knuckle affair. For Kamala Harris, the polling is good, and rather steady, but not great. Donald Trump, despite having spent the past few weeks defaming innocent Haitian Americans and spreading untold lies about hurricane recovery efforts, is still very close to winning himself.
Is Harris doing enough to beat him at the finish line? I’m not so sure. As The New Republic’s Alex Shephard wrote this week, Harris is making something of a too-close-for-comfort retread of her first, failed presidential run. Harris has arrived at this point too guarded and overcautious, he argues, with too many edges sanded off and what seems like a different policy walk-back every day. “With Election Day fast approaching,” Alex writes, “there’s a growing sense that she could—and should—be doing more.”
But what “more” should she be doing? My two cents: Harris needs to drill down on specific matters that help define her candidacy, contrast it with the corrupt impunity that a second Trump term will bring, and cast the widest possible net to woo any or all voters who might join her coalition. Specifically, here are three matters critical enough to be part of any closing argument that Harris and her Democratic allies make in these final days:
1. I know that I’m a broken record on this, but Democrats really need to raise the salience of the Supreme Court. Everyone committed to a Harris victory should make it clear that there are two Supreme Court vacancies at stake: Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito may not be signaling a desire to retire from the bench, but a Trump win gives them the option to escape, knowing that like-minded replacements will be on their way. And while it might be difficult to find juridical minds more troglodytic than the two most venerable members of the conservative majority, you can definitely find younger bodies into which their ideas might be stuffed.
This is honestly the alpha and omega of anything Democrats might otherwise argue. Right now, with the current majority having gutted Chevron deference, anything that might be considered a “Democratic policy” is subject to the review of a hostile court that’s making up the rules as they go along. It’s possible that Democrats don’t really understand how bad a position they’re in now that Loper Bright is the law of the land. They should listen to the judicial experts in their corner—or get some new ones. Regardless, “Two Supreme Court vacancies are at stake in this election” needs to become a mantra.
2. As I predicted some months ago, 2024 has become a year defined by Republicans largely lying about their unpopular positions on abortion rights. They will, of course, seek to ban nationally as soon as the opportunity presents itself (before moving on to other retrograde policies from Project 2025’s pages). Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have in recent weeks gone all in on the centerpiece of their deception, constantly reiterating that Trump will veto any abortion ban that crosses his desk. While it’s ordinarily sufficient to point out that Trump cannot be trusted and that Harris and her fellow Democrats have more convincingly committed themselves to safeguarding reproductive rights, Harris and her allies must do a better job explaining how Republicans actually plan to bring about a national abortion ban if Trump is elected.
As The New Republic’s Melissa Gira Grant points out, such a ban is not going to arrive in the form of a bill landing on Trump’s desk; Congress need not be involved at all.
What Trump might do—what his allies want him to do—is enact a ban by enforcing the 1873 Comstock Act, which can’t be vetoed since it’s already on the books. Trump’s misdirection distracts from his consistent anti-abortion record while in office, what the Republican Party platform states, and the very public plans of his former staffers detailed in Project 2025, which Trump also pretends he has nothing to do with. That is part of the Trump-Vance campaign’s plan on abortion: to do whatever they can not to talk about that plan, or at least to confuse the public about what that plan is.
This is a strong issue for Harris, which is all the more reason not to fight this battle on Trump’s terms but to actually level with people about what he intends to do. In their two debate performances, the Harris-Walz ticket failed to make mention of Comstock, despite the fact that Vance actually asked the DOJ to enforce it in a January 2023 letter. This needs to change: Democrats have the truth on their side, and it’s stupid to not use it against an inveterate liar, dissembling on an issue of paramount importance.
3. If abortion is one of the Democratic Party’s best issues, then immigration has to be one of their worst. As I noted a few weeks ago, any hope that we might return to sane comprehensive immigration reform policies has been scotched after the Biden administration entered into a race to the bottom with the GOP’s nativist cranks. The biggest overhang of Trump’s first term is that he managed to set the terms on immigration and yank Democrats to the right. He’s also managed to drag public opinion in his direction. A September 18 Ipsos poll found that there is majority support for some form of mass deportation—a policy Trump plans to deliver.
Democrats haven’t exactly met Trump’s demonization of Haitian Americans with a full-throated defense of these citizens, and it’s not clear that Harris has the stomach for that sort of entanglement. There’s too little daylight between Trump and Harris on immigration, but his plan to exile tens of millions of Americans is the centerpiece of his campaign, so Democrats should attack it with gusto. Fortunately they have another angle to wage war: Correctly depict Trump’s plan as a neutron bomb on the American economy.
As The New Republic contributor Nicholas Slayton reported this week, a recent report from the American Immigration Council found that Trump’s plan would unleash a parade of economic horrors, including estimated GDP losses between 4.2 and 6.8 percent, a $46.8 billion hole in federal coffers, corresponding state and local revenue losses in excess of $29 billion, and “significant labor shocks across multiple key industries, with especially acute impacts on construction, agriculture, and the hospitality sector.” These aftershocks would all create an environment in which “hundreds of thousands of U.S.-born workers could lose their jobs.”
Plus, the total cost to taxpayers just to implement this plan to destroy the U.S. economy would be in the vicinity of $315 billion (a figure the AIC says is “highly conservative”), which would give Democrats the chance to ask Trump the question so often chucked in their direction: “But how will you pay for it?”
It’s not ideal that Harris has been a risk-averse politician—and I personally wish she was more like Biden on economic matters. But these faults are things we can all fight about later down the line. Harris needs to end this election making the arguments necessary to put the Trump epoch behind us. These three areas give Harris broadly appealing arguments to make and clear contrasts to raise, forcing Trump to defend the MAGA extremism that now dictates much of our everyday lives.
Best of all, these aren’t the kind of risky stances from which Harris has heretofore shied away. This is normie bait: good for the broad Democratic coalition, salient to swayable Republican voters, and relevant to habitual nonvoters that both campaigns hope to get off the fence. Winning in November may boil down to a few big contrasts that will define the future—and whether or not Democrats can speak with one voice about why their version of the future is preferable.
This article first appeared in Power Mad, a weekly TNR newsletter authored by deputy editor Jason Linkins. Sign up here.
If Donald Trump has a singular policy proposal that he’s planning on implementing upon his return to Washington, it’s probably his bruising and “bloody” mass deportation of tens of millions of people from the United States. Kamala Harris understands that what Trump is proposing is frightening, darkly warning on Wednesday that the plan could herald massive raids and deportation camps. But even as she takes this message to voters, her own position on immigration is, as The New York Times characterizes it, “a balancing act.” It’s important to identify what, precisely, she’s trying to balance, though: on the one hand a desire to appeal to immigration restrictionists and on the other a moral imperative to treat migrants fairly and humanely.
It’s an odd situation for Democrats to be in, considering that draconian immigration policies are Trump’s bread and butter—to say nothing of his habitual demonization of migrants and immigrants. If something in the Democratic response seems to be sputtering, however, that’s probably indicative of a sad reality: One of Trump’s big political successes was his dismantling of the polite Beltway consensus on immigration reform and taking public opinion with him.
If Trump implements his mass deportation scheme, it would be perilous for just about everyone. As the Washington Monthly’s Robert Shapiro reported last May, the proposal would be economically calamitous—damaging to key industries and certain to “bring on a recession while reigniting inflation.” But Shapiro points to something else beyond the economy that seems like it might leave a deeper wound: “MAGA attacks on immigration also draw on common fallacies and reckless misrepresentations. For example, the vast majority of unauthorized immigrants have deep ties to their communities and the country.”
This is the heart of the matter: a plan to harm both immigrants and the communities that have taken them in. If you’d like to get a feel for what it looks like when Trump is carving up the U.S. population, one need only look to Springfield, Ohio, which has become a microcosmic