2024 NBA Mock Draft 2.0 : Projecting the first round before the season, with Alex Sarr rising

TEAM: Kentucky

POSITION: Wing

CLASS: Freshman

HEIGHT: 6-7

DRAFT AGE: 20.5

According to Sam Vecenie, most NBA scouts and executives did not feel like they saw “a sure-fire top-3 guy in a normal draft class” when they attended the scrimmages between the NBL’s Perth Wildcats and the G League Ignite.

Perhaps that means the top pick comes from the college ranks and one serious candidate, if he shoots the ball well, is Kentucky slasher Justin Edwards.

“He is the safest,” one NBA scout told For The Win. “I know what I’m getting: Good positional size, can make open 3-pointers, aggressive downhill attacker and he is athletic above the rim.”

Edwards would benefit from improving his defensive consistency but was named Defensive MVP at the 2022 Nike EYBL Indy circuit. He led all players in defensive statistical impact (DSI) and, per Cerebro, averaged 3.0 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. Edwards also averaged 3.0 steals per game at the 2022 Nike EYBL Peach Jam tournament.

He is tough to stop in transition and already showcased impressive athletic flashes during GLOBL Jam for Kentucky. Unfortunately, however, he struggled with efficiency on his jump shot.

“If he can shoot around 40 percent on 3-pointers, he’s the No. 1 pick,” added the scout.

Perhaps the biggest roadblock for Edwards, though, is his age. Edwards is older than several non-freshmen including Tyrese Proctor and Donovan Clingan. He is also older than 16 players selected in the 2023 NBA Draft, including Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.

But advanced stats tend to like his productivity and, per Evan Miya, his projected Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) ranks second-highest among all freshmen next season.

TEAM: Ignite

CLASS: G League

POSITION: Forward

HEIGHT: 6-8

DRAFT AGE: 18.9

Ronald Holland III is getting plenty of opportunities to showcase his talent for the G League Ignite. He is averaging 20.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game so far. According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, additionally, his confidence in shooting the ball is a “welcome sign” for scouts.

“You don’t have to run plays for him,” an NBA scout told For The Win. “He can legitimately guard one through five, for real, and he has the best motor in the class.”

Holland has an impressive resume and played well for Team USA at the 2023 Nike Hoop Summit, scoring 15 points while adding five assists as well as nine rebounds and six (!) steals in just 26 minutes. Holland also led all players with three blocks recorded at the 2023 McDonald’s All-American Game.

This is not unusual for Holland, who was named all-tournament at the 2022 Les Schwab Invitational after averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds with 3.5 assists per game for Duncanville High School.

TEAM: USC

CLASS: Freshman

POSITION: Point

HEIGHT: 6-3

DRAFT AGE: 19.7

Isaiah Collier, who won the Naismith Prep and Morgan Wootten National Player of the Year, was named co-MVP of the McDonald’s All-American Game.

“He is the best facilitator in the class,” an NBA scout told For The Win.

Very efficient as the ball handler in pick and roll sets, he was one of the best players at the 2022 Nike EYBL Indy circuit. He averaged 19.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists while shooting 11-of-24 (45.8 percent) on his 3-pointers for The Skill Factory (TSF). He also added 1.8 steals per game.

Collier is projected to lead all freshmen in scoring and assists next year, per Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, his projected Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) is the highest among all freshmen next season, per Evan Miya.

TEAM: Perth (Australia)

CLASS: International

POSITION: Big

HEIGHT: 7-1

DRAFT AGE: 19.2

No player has improved their draft stock recently as much as Alexandre Sarr. According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, the big man has “created significant buzz” with his play thus far.

Sam Vecenie added that Sarr is “further ahead than anyone expected” for the Perth Wildcats.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be so surprised, though. Sarr averaged 26 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.2 steals and 3.1 blocks per 40 minutes for France during the U17 FIBA World Cup in 2022.

He also played well on the defensive end of the floor during his time with Overtime Elite. Opponents shot 18-of-58 (31.0 percent) when he was the nearest defender, via Stats Perform, which ranked as the best (minimum: 30 attempts) among our projected first-rounders.

Opponents shot 3-of-23 (13.0 percent) when he contested their jumper, which was also the best among all players included in this mock draft.

TEAM: Connecticut

CLASS: Freshman

POSITION: Wing

HEIGHT: 6-6

DRAFT AGE: 19.7

UConn’s Stephon Castle is a 6-foot-6 guard and on-ball creator who was named a McDonald’s All-American during his senior year.

“If I’m swinging for the fences, I think he has a case for No. 1 overall,” an NBA scout told For The Win.

The incoming freshman showcased his versatility for Newton High School during the 2022 City of Palms tournament. He averaged 15.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.5 steals per game across those four appearances.

Those stat-sheet stuffers who can finish at the basket like this tend to have value in the pre-draft process.

TEAM: Baylor

CLASS: Freshman

POSITION: Wing

HEIGHT: 6-5

DRAFT AGE: 19.8

Ja’Kobe Walter is a strong defender who led Link Academy to win the GEICO Nationals tournament for the first time in program history. Walter averaged 21.3 points per game and shot 8-of-15 (53.3 percent) during the tournament.

Here is what one scout told Michael Scotto (via HoopsHype):

“Walter is athletic, talented, and skilled… He has the ability to take over games and can get after it on the defensive end. I think he could have a pretty good year.”

He has good athleticism and burst, his fadeaway jumper off the dribble has impressed scouts and he should be a tremendous fit for Baylor next season.

TEAM: Ignite

CLASS: G League

POSITION: Wing

HEIGHT: 6-11

DRAFT AGE: 19.7

Matas Buzelis missed time during the FIBA Intercontinental Cup with an ankle injury but is still vying for one of the top spots in the draft with his skill set at his size.

Here is what one scout, however, recently told Raphael Barlowe (via NBA Big Board):

“He’s been super up and down. That’s kind of been his thing to be up and down. The shooting has been up and down and inconsistent.”

Buzelis looked good for Expressions Elite at 2022 Nike EYBL Kansas City averaging 17.3 points and 6.2 rebounds with 1.8 assists per game. He shot 5-for-10 (50.0 percent) from beyond the arc for Sunrise Christian Academy in two games at the 2023 GEICO Nationals.

He is skilled and his draft stock can improve if he plays with more face as the season continues in the G League.

TEAM: Kentucky

CLASS: Freshman

POSITION: Point

HEIGHT: 6-3

DRAFT AGE: 19.1

DJ Wagner is a three-time New Jersey Gatorade Player of the Year who was named co-MVP during the 2023 McDonald’s All-American Game, recording 19 points as well as two rebounds, three assists, two blocks and two steals.

He was also named MVP of the 2022 Nike EYBL Orlando circuit, averaging 23.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.8 steals per game for NJ Scholars. Here is what one scout told Michael Scotto (via HoopsHype):

“He’s more of a scorer right now than someone who’s reliable on the ball as a point guard. At the end of the day, you’re looking at a volume scorer who can, hopefully, learn to run some offense and make others better.

Due to his size, he will need to lean into his role as a playmaker at the next level.

There are flashes, though, that keep evaluators intrigued in his future as an NBA-caliber point guard. Wagner led all players at the 2022 Nike EYBL Indy circuit in floor general skills (FGS), per Cerebro, averaging 8.3 assists per game.

He averaged 4.3 assists per game for Kentucky during GLOBL Jam.

TEAM: Duke

CLASS: Sophomore

POSITION: Point

HEIGHT: 6-5

DRAFT AGE: 20.2

Scouts were reportedly “enamored” with Duke’s Tyrese Proctor before his freshman season, per Sam Vecenie.

Expect a leap from Proctor next season. Here is more from Duke head coach Jon Scheyer (via CBB Almanac):

“I think he’s going to take a big jump from his freshman to his sophomore year,” Scheyer said. “There’s a different confidence he has right now and a different swagger. He makes others better, and I think we’ll see his creativity as a player more and more.”

The ACC All-Freshman has good positional size and he averaged 0.21 ball screens per touch, via Stats Perform, which was the most among all of our projected first-rounders. The guard also averaged 0.79 passes per touch as a freshman, which ranked as the best among all players included in this mock as well.

While he shot only 32.0 percent on 3-pointers last season, expect that to rise as a sophomore. He connected on 26-of-64 (40.6 percent) for his 3-pointers taken from NBA distance last season, via Stats Perform.

TEAM: Connecticut

CLASS: Sophomore

POSITION: Big

HEIGHT: 7-2

DRAFT AGE: 20.3

Despite winning a national championship, UConn’s Donovan Clingan was one of the best NBA prospects who did not declare for the 2023 NBA Draft. Although he injured his foot in September, any team looking for help in the frontcourt would love to have someone like him on their roster.

Clingan had a slightly limited role last season, via Stats Perform, averaging just 0.49 touches per offensive chance. That was the lowest among all of our projected first-rounders. But the Big East All-Freshman did well when he was given an opportunity and averaged 0.41 points per offensive touch, which was the highest among all players included in our mock draft.

The big man did the little things well for UConn. Clingan set 0.12 dribble handoffs and 0.22 off-ball screens per offensive touch and both were the most among our projected first-rounders, via Stats Perform.

He also allowed just 0.62 points per defensive chance, via Stats Perform, which was second-best among all players included in this mock draft. Meanwhile, his adjusted rebound percentage (85.6 percent) was the highest among our projected first-rounders (minimum: 75 rebound chances) as well.

His projected Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DPBR) is the highest among all Division I players next season, per Evan Miya.

Clingan should have a bigger role now that Adama Sonogo turned pro, but he has already proven his efficiency and utility at a lower usage. Now, via Evan Miya, he now has the second-highest indispensability score of any Division I player.

TEAM: UCLA

CLASS: Freshman

POSITION: Big

HEIGHT: 7-3

DRAFT AGE: 19.2

Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman believes that 7-foot-3 big man Aday Mara will inspire “constant scouting debate” due to his polarizing size and skill set.

Mara averaged 27 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.8 steals and 4.9 blocks per 40 minutes for Spain during the U17 FIBA World Cup in 2022. His rating around the rim (ATR) was the best at the tournament, per Cerebro, and his pure scoring prowess (PSP) ranked second-best.

The big man has excellent scoring touch and feel for the game and we can expect some stellar passes from the post whenever he is on the court. The question is if he is ready to contribute at a high level during his first year in the NCAA.

TEAM: Ignite

CLASS: G League

POSITION: Forward

HEIGHT: 6-9

DRAFT AGE: 19.0

Spanish big man Izan Almansa is already one of the most accomplished prospects in this class.

Almansa was named Most Valuable Player at the 2022 FIBA U17 World Cup, averaging 27.0 points, 16.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 2.2 blocks per 40 minutes for Spain. He was also named MVP at the FIBA U18 European Championships in 2022.

This summer, he once again impressed for Spain, winning MVP and a gold medal during the FIBA U19 World Cup in Hungary.

He is currently averaging 11.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes with the G League Ignite. If his outside shooting continues to develop, he should rise on these rankings.

TEAM: Syracuse

CLASS: Sophomore

POSITION: Point

HEIGHT: 6-3

DRAFT AGE: 20.9

Syracuse’s Judah Mintz is another player who could have a breakout campaign next season. Head coach Adrian Autry has high hopes for Mintz (via CBB Almanac):

“As crazy as it sounds, I want him to be more aggressive on both ends,” Autry said. “I want him to put more pressure on the defense and set the tone for us defensively. He’s so fast, but I don’t think people realize how fast he really is.”

More aggression would put him on another level of success considering Mintz averaged 0.39 closeouts per defensive chance, via Stats Perform, which was by far the most among any prospect on our watch list in the 2023 NBA Draft. He allowed just 0.16 points per touch on these closeouts, which was the best among our projected first-rounders as well.

The ACC All-Freshman allowed only 0.25 points per touch on opposing drives, which ranked as the best among all projected first-rounders.

Opponents shot 45-of-136 (33.1 percent) overall when he was credited as the nearest defender, via Stats Perform, which ranked second-best (minimum: 30 attempts) among all projected first-rounders as well.

On the other end of the floor, meanwhile, Mintz forced contact often and he was one of the overall leaders in converting and-1 opportunities. Mintz is a fantastic scorer from the midrange, especially for a freshman, and he was one of the leaders in fastbreak scoring as well.

TEAM: Cairns (Australia)

CLASS: International

POSITION: Wing

HEIGHT: 6-10

DRAFT AGE: 21.3

Bobi Klintman was considered the “mystery man” of the 2023 NBA Draft before he decided to withdraw and sign overseas with Australia’s NBL. Here is the latest from Sam Vecenie (via The Athletic):

“Some scouts like Klintman’s potential and upside as a big wing who can dribble, pass and shoot. Others are more skeptical about his overall athleticism and defensive awareness, and will nitpick some of the skill-based parts of his game.”

ESPN’s Jonathan Givony added that Klintman is a “jack of all trades” who still needs to improve his consistency.

He recently had his best game in the NBL, recording 19 points with six rebounds, one steal and one block against Brisbane on Oct. 7. Klintman then had his worst performance of the season thus far, shooting 1-for-12 (.083) with two turnovers and three personal fouls in an exhibition game against the Washington Wizards.

TEAM: Creighton

CLASS: Junior

POSITION: Combo

HEIGHT: 6-4

DRAFT AGE: 21.1

There is typically an unexpected upperclassman who finds his way into the draft lottery and this year, Creighton’s Trey Alexander is as good of a bet as anyone.

Alexander, who tested the waters during the 2023 NBA Draft but opted to return to school, appears ready for a breakout campaign. He averaged 0.85 points per offensive chance, via Stats Perform, which was the most among any player we have projected in the first round.

He was 42-of-86 (48.8 percent) on uncontested 3-pointers and 50-of-101 (49.5 percent) on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, via Stats Perform, both the highest among anyone included in our mock draft as well.

Alexander needs to shoot the ball at least about as well as he did last season, but there is reason for optimism that he can do as much.

He is an above-average perimeter defender with a 6-foot-10 wingspan despite standing just above 6-foot-3 barefoot. He still needs to work on developing his tertiary skills, including playmaking. But his secondary assist rate (also known as a hockey assist) was the best among anyone we have projected in the first round of this mock as well, via Stats Perform.

TEAM: Kansas

CLASS: Freshman

POSITION: Combo

HEIGHT: 6-3

DRAFT AGE: 19.2

Elmarko Jackson is a potential day-one starter for the Kansas Jayhawks.

“[He has a] well-built, mature body,” an NBA scout told For The Win. “[He is] athletic and gets downhill quickly to set up kick-outs and dump-offs. [He is] physical enough to play through contact. [He] changes speeds [and] picks his spots.”

Jackson averaged 16.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game during the 2023 National Prep Championship for South Kent School. Shooting will be the key to his success and head coach Bill Self has said that Jackson is a jumper away from being an “elite” guard, per the CBB Almanac.

Fortunately, per Cerebro, Jackson has shot 41-of-97 (42.2 percent) on 3-pointers across all Cerebro-certified events.

TEAM: UCLA

CLASS: Sophomore

POSITION: Big

HEIGHT: 6-10

DRAFT AGE: 21.2

UCLA freshman Adem Bona was named Pac-12 Rookie of the Year and made Pac-12 All-Defense. Bruins head coach Mick Cronin has very high expectations for Bona (via CBB Almanac):

“We’ve had a lot of turnover, but having Adem [Bona] back is a huge advantage. He’s going to be one of the best players in the country.”

While he got hurt down the stretch last season, he was a highly impactful player for the Bruins.

UCLA outscored opponents by 31.3 points per 100 possessions when Bona was on the court, per CBB Analytics, the most among all Division I men’s college basketball players.

Bona recorded the second-most dunks among all freshmen, per Bart Torvik. He also had the highest percentage of shots that were layups (35.7 percent) among projected first-rounders, via Stats Perform.

TEAM: KK Mega Basket (Serbia)

CLASS: International

POSITION: Guard

HEIGHT: 6-7

DRAFT AGE: 18.9

Serbia’s Nikola Topic was named MVP of the FIBA Under-18 European Championships earlier this summer.

At 18 years old with a 7-foot wingspan, the 6-foot-7 point guard is a starting point guard in the Adriatic League for KK Mega Basket. According to Jonathan Givony, the guard “shows rare and coveted vision and creativity” in pick-and-roll sets.

He is scoring and distributing with ease, but he is still too turnover-prone and needs to improve his jump shot and his defense to make a case as a starter in the NBA.

TEAM: Houston

CLASS: Sophomore

POSITION: Wing

HEIGHT: 6-5

DRAFT AGE: 19.5

Terrance Arceneaux, who reportedly received “positive reports” before his freshman campaign at Houston, appears primed for a breakout campaign as a sophomore. Here is more from Rob Dauster (via CBB Almanac):

“Terrance Arceneaux who is arguably the most talented player on the Houston roster. If someone from this program is going to hear their name called in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft, it’ll be Arceneaux — assuming he can put it all together.

In an ideal world, Arceneaux is the kind of positionless wing that can play and guard anyone from the 2 through the 4. He arrived at Houston at just 183 pounds, and he’s creeping his way up towards 210 now. With the added size, the hope is that Arceneaux will better be able to handle the contact and physicality that comes with playing at this level.”

Arceneaux allowed just 0.58 points per defensive chance when he was the nearest defender, via Stats Perform, which was the best among our projected first-rounders.

Houston allowed just 84.4 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor, per CBB Analytics, which ranked second-best among all Division I men’s college basketball players.

Meanwhile, his offensive rebound percentage (7.4 percent) ranked in the 95th percentile among all players at his position, per CBB Analytics.

TEAM: JL Bourg (France)

CLASS: International

POSITION: Wing

HEIGHT: 6-8

DRAFT AGE: 19.2

France’s Zaccharie Risacher is getting some attention for JL Bourg in France. He recently recorded 24 points (9-of-13 FG, 2-of-5 3P) with five rebounds and zero turnovers against Nanterre on Oct. 7. But the following game, he had just 5 points (2-of-7 FG) with two turnovers and four fouls.

It’s worth noting that he played well for France during the 2022 FIBA World Cup (U17) and averaged 20 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.2 blocks per 40 minutes during the tournament.

Risacher is a great passer and excellent playmaker with above-average fluidity for his size. He is one of the most intriguing international prospects in this draft class.

According to Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman, however, scouts aren’t sure what Risacher’s “bankable skill” is in the NBA.

TEAM: Adelaide (Australia)

CLASS: International

POSITION: Guard

HEIGHT: 6-8

DRAFT AGE: 19.3

Originally committed to Louisville as a freshman, Trentyn Flowers instead took his talents overseas to play in Australia’s NBL24 Next Stars program.

Flowers was originally tasked as playing point guard for his team but he was moved off the ball shortly after he was given the assignment. However, if he plays point or wing, there is a lot of intrigue about his game.

“His versatility is there,” an NBA scout told For The Win. “He can facilitate and initiate offense as a secondary playmaker. He can score at every level and play above the rim.”

Despite a role change, Flowers had his best game yet on Oct. 14. Flowers had 20 points (7-10 FG, 4-5 3P) with three rebounds, one assist, one steal and no turnovers in his first victory of the season.

TEAM: Florida

CLASS: Sophomore

POSITION: Wing

HEIGHT: 6-5

DRAFT AGE: 20.6

Florida’s Riley Kugel is another player to watch as a potential breakout candidate. Here is more from Rob Dauster (via CBB Almanac):

“Kugel has terrific positional size, he is a floor-spacer, and he spent the offseason improving his body and his conditioning. The hype around him is real, and there’s a real chance he could end up being the SEC Player of the Year when it’s all said and done.”

Kugel averaged 0.41 points per touch on ball screens, via Stats Perform, which ranked as the best among projected first-rounders. He was also 14-of-33 (43.4 percent) on 3-pointers from NBA range, which was the best among all players included in our mock draft, too.

He is a legitimate shot-creator who shoots well off the dribble and will be an important player for the Gators.

TEAM: Kentucky

CLASS: Freshman

POSITION: Combo

HEIGHT: 6-2

DRAFT AGE