April 23, 2022 10: 40 am ET
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 205.
UFC Fight Night 205 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 35-13
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Matchup: Charles Jourdain (-114) vs. Lando Vannata (-110)
Summary: Serving as a classic Joe Silva-era opener for the main card is a potential featherweight war between Charles Jourdain and Lando Vannata.
Despite there being a clear path for Vannata to win this fight on the floor, I’m not sure I can trust the groovy American to apply his wrestling advantages without being sucked into a brawl. Vannata has also struggled with southpaw and switch-stance fighters in the past, as I suspect that Jourdain’s shifting attacks and countering acumen will be enough to edge out wild rounds.
I’ll officially pick Jourdain to win by decision, but not be surprised if Vannata tries to fight smart and wrestle this weekend.
Matchup: Alexander Romanov (-2500) vs. Chase Sherman (+900)
Summary: In what seems like a dedicated effort to force heavyweight fights onto UFC main cards, Alexander Romanov meets short-notice replacement, Chase Sherman.
In the UFC’s defense, Romanov is probably an important fighter to showcase given both his skill set and the general talent pool that resides north of 205 pounds. That said, I’m not sure what Sherman will be able to do on what will be his third tour of duty in the octagon (as he already seemed shell-shocked during his second stint).
Hopefully, Sherman can avoid big slams and embarrassing submissions, but I suspect that a good ole scarf hold is in the American’s future.
Matchup: Maycee Barber (-190) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+145)
Summary: Despite Maycee Barber clearly losing to Miranda Maverick in her last outing, she will have ample opportunity to create some momentum for herself this Saturday when she meets Montana De La Rosa.
Although De La Rosa is the more technically skilled fighter everywhere, she has traditionally struggled when pitted against superior athletes. Unfortunately for De La Rosa, athleticism and big explosive actions (regardless of whether or not they’re effective) also appear to be a dominant theme for determining the outcome of women’s fights that go to decision.
For that reason, I’ll reluctantly side with Barber to, once again, bulldoze her way through some challenging spots and slow starts en route to a win on the scorecards.
Matchup: Clay Guida (-112) vs. Claudio Puelles (-112)
Summary: The co-main event in Las Vegas will feature a fun lightweight pairing between Clay Guida and Claudio Puelles.
Even though the betting spread portends a potential crossroads in careers, I think that Guida can hand out another classic vet lesson. Guida may be no spring chicken at 40-years-old, but his grinding grappling style ages a lot more gracefully than it looks.
More importantly, I have not been sold in the slightest on Puelles’ disjointed style or ceiling, as I believe his opportunistic sensibilities hit a hard wall here.
Matchup: Amanda Lemos (+175) vs. Jessica Andrade (-230)
Summary: As stated in my in-depth breakdown, the main event on ESPN+ features potential fireworks in the strawweight division.
Jessica Andrade is definitely the deserved favorite, but the countering acumen of Amanda Lemos will make her a live underdog early. That said, I suspect that Lemos’ propensity to back herself up to the fence could be a stylistic death sentence against a fighter like Andrade – particularly inside of the small cage in The Apex.
The official pick is for the former strawweight queen to survive a couple of scares en route