WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has strong-armed many of America’s biggest trading partners into pledging trillions of dollars of investment in the United States. But a study out Tuesday raises doubts about whether the money will actually materialize and questions how it would be spent if it did.
“How realistic are these commitments?’’ write Gregory Auclair and Adnan Mazarei of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a nonpartisan think tank that supports free trade. “The short answer is that they are clouded with uncertainty.’’
They looked at more than $5 trillion in investment commitments made last year by the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and the Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
Trump used the threat of punitive tariffs – import taxes – to pry concessions out of those trading partners, including the investment pledges.
The White House has published an even higher investment figure – $9.6 trillion – that includes public and private investment commitments from other countries. Trump himself, never one to undersell his achievements, has put the number far higher — $17 billion or $18 billion — though Auclair and Mazarei note that “the basis for his claim is not clear.’’
All the numbers are huge. Total private investment in the United States was most recently running at a $5.4 trillion annual pace. In 2024, the last year for which figures are available, total foreign direct investment in the United States amounted to $151 billion. Direct investment includes money sunk into such things as factories and offices but not financial investments like stocks and bonds.
“The pledged amounts are large,’’ Auclair and Mazarei write, “but their time horizon varies, and the metrics for measuring and thus verifying the pledges are generally unclear.’’ They note, for example, that the European Union’s pledge to invest $600 billion in the Unite