NBA Roundtable: Making sense of Kevin Durant’s debut, Lakers’ playoff hopes

The NBA playoff push has officially begun. 

This week, our panel of NBA reporters — Ric Bucher, Melissa Rohlin and Yaron Weitzman — take a look at the superstar-laden Suns, who will represent the East in the NBA Finals, and just how far Hollywood’s most-famous team can go without its leader.

1. What are your takeaways from Kevin Durant’s debut with the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday?

Weitzman: Honestly, I don’t think there’s much to take from watching a team with three All-Stars, including an all-time great, defeat the lowly Charlotte Hornets. We don’t need to see the Suns beat a lottery team to know that this is one of the league’s true title contenders. This is the beauty of Kevin Durant: Because of his shooting and size and versatility, he’s the rare superstar who can be dropped into any ecosystem and fit right in. You don’t need to run 40 pick-and-rolls for him. You don’t need to hide him on defense. Just slot into the lineup and — to use one of his favorite words — let him “hoop.” This Suns team is going to be awesome. Its ceiling will be determined by the health of its stars. 

Bucher: Gordon Hayward was guarding KD and Kelly Oubre Jr. was on Devin Booker. The Hornets came into the game with the worst offense in the league and that was with LaMelo Ball back and after a five-game winning streak. This was their first game without Ball (broken ankle) and it showed. It took them nearly five minutes to score their first bucket and the heaves at the rim were not close. The Suns’ ability to defend without Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and Jae Crowder is going to determine just how far they can go and how much better they are with KD. Playing the Hornets could not provide an answer to that question.

Rohlin: Wednesday’s game provided a peek into how devastating the Durant-Booker tandem is going to be for the rest of the league. Durant didn’t look rusty in his first game since Jan. 8. And he and Booker looked effortless together — and this was only their first game. When Durant truly finds his rhythm and learns his teammates, this team is going to be very hard to stop. Expect to see them in the Finals.

2. Who had the more impressive 71-point performance: Damian Lillard or Donovan Mitchell?

Weitzman: Do I have to choose between the two? Can I just say anytime anyone scores 71 points, it’s pretty impressive? Though I guess if I have to choose one, I’ll have to go with Lillard, just because Mitchell’s game went to overtime, meaning he played 50 minutes compared to Lillard’s 39.

Bucher: Lillard’s efficiency scoring 71 was remarkable, and I admire the statement he made on the heels of innuendo that the Blazers were preparing to tank for Victor Wembanyana. All that said, he did it against the Houston Rockets, the second-worst defensive team in the league. Mitchell got his against the Bulls, one of the stingiest defenses in the league. He didn’t just score, either, but collected 11 dimes. Slight edge to Mitchell.

Rohlin: Both were incredible performances. I think my favorite part might’ve been the aftermath of it all, when Mitchell tweeted that his mother texted him, “You gotta get 72 now.” I also love the fact that Mitchell’s performance came following a season in which his star had fallen in Utah, and Lillard had that type of performance following playing only 29 games last season because of an abdominal injury. They’ve both had statement seasons, and those games were both of their magnum opuses. 

3. Milwaukee has overtaken Boston for the best record in the NBA and is riding a 16-game winning streak. Are the Bucks officially your favorite to win the title?

Weitzman: They’re not my favorite, but they’re one of them. The Bucks are a machine. They own the league’s top defense. We know what Giannis can do and does in the playoffs. The only thing that can hold them back is their half court offense. Right now it’s middle-of-the-pack in the league, which could be troublesome in the playoffs. But we know the Bucks are going suffocate opponents, we know they’re going to take and make 3s (fourth in frequency of shots from deep; 13th in 3-point accuracy), and we know that they’re going to crash the offensive glass (ninth in the NBA), all of which helps make up for their sluggish attack and tilts the math in their favor by giving them more points per shot and more shots per possession. Also, here are Giannis’ playoff numbers over the last two seasons (33 games): 30.8 points on 53% shooting, 13.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.2 blocks. So, yeah, the Bucks have as good as a shot as anyone this season.

Bucher: They’ve been my pick to win it all since the start of the season, and I’ve yet to have a reason to change my mind. More than anything, I love how quietly they go about their business and, in the words of Pat Riley, they “keep the main thing the main thing,” a.k.a., winning another championship. They’ve won in every way imaginable during the streak — comebacks, blowouts, last-possession scores, last-possession stops — and with an assortment of players missing at various points. Giannis talks a lot about building good habits and that’s what I see the Bucks doing as a team. That doesn’t always happen when a team goes on a long winning streak. I’m reminded of a conversation with Warriors assistant coach Ron Adams in Boston during the Warriors’ 73-9 season. They were 23-0 at the time and would beat the Celtics in double overtime to push it to 24-0. Adams grumbled that they were not playing fundamentally sound basketball and worried at some point it would come back to bite them. The streak ended in Milwaukee two nights later, and we know how the season ended. I see none of that with Milwaukee.

Rohlin: I think that streak is getting much less attention than it deserves. They’ve clearly hit their stride at the right time, which could be very dangerous for the rest of the league. Antetokounmpo is only going to get better as the playoffs stretch on, as we saw in the team’s championship run in 2021. That being said, I’m not sure if they’re my favorite to win the title. In the East, I also really like Boston and think Jayson Tatum has taken his game to a new level this season. It would also be a mistake to count out Philadelphia, so long as Joel Embiid can manage to remain healthy for his first postseason in four years. Then, in the West, everyone obviously needs to watch out for Phoenix for the reasons we discussed above. 

4. What percentage chance do you give the Lakers of making the playoffs — play-in or top-six seed — with LeBron James sidelined for an extended amount of time? 

Weitzman: Well, as of Thursday morning, the machines over at Five Thirty Eight put the Lakers’ odds of making the playoffs at 55% — and that was before we learned that LeBron’s injured foot wouldn’t be evaluated for around another three weeks. Going by the calendar, that means he’ll miss at a minimum the Lakers’ next 10 games — there are only 19 remaining on the schedule. As of Thursday, the Lakers were a game behind the New Orleans Pelicans for the West’s final play-in spot. Put it all together, and I’d say the Lakers’ season has come to an end. 

Bucher: I’ll give them a 3% chance. A couple of other teams are going to have to collapse in order to create a path. I will be surprised if LeBron plays again this season. Re-evaluation in three weeks doesn’t mean he’s back in three weeks, it just means they’ll then determine when he might be able to return. An upper body injury would allow him to maintain some level of conditioning, but I don’t see how he does that with an ankle issue, so I would expect he’ll need some time to get back in game shape. As for Anthony Davis, don’t get me started after he sat out the OKC game despite being pain-free (Darvin Ham’s words). The only time he’s ever led a team to a playoff spot is in New Orleans when the Pelicans slid into the eighth spot after the Thunder lost both Durant and Russell Westbrook to injury. That was eight years and many important missed games ago.

Rohlin: It really depends on whether Davis can play MVP-caliber basketball once again. During James’ five-game absence in November, Davis went on a tear, averaging 31.8 points and 17.4 rebounds to help the team go on a three-game winning-streak and go 3-2 over that period. The new-look Lakers are much better than they were back then with their trade deadline additions. So, if Davis can take over and the team’s new pieces can star in their roles, the Lakers have a good chance of making the play-in tournament. But that’s a lot of “ifs.” So, all things considered, I’d give the Lakers a 70% chance of making the play-in tournament. 

5. Don’t look now, but the Warriors are up to fifth in the West. Should Golden State once again be considered a title contender this season? 

Weitzman: They’re also just one game ahead of the play-in and three games ahead of the 11th-place Lakers — so let’s not give this team too much credit. The Warriors are still 12th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. They’re still a gross 7-23 on the road. All that said, they still have an upside unlike any team in the Western Conference. Case in point: When their starters have shared the floor in non-garbage-time minutes, they’ve thumped opponents by a ridiculous 22.2 points per 100 possessions, the second-best number in the league among all five-man lineups that have played more than 200 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. So, yeah, there is title potential here. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if they fell into the play-in and flopped in their first game there.

Bucher: As much as seeing Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green make another back-from-the-dead run and having the Chase Center rockin’ through another postseason would be fun, I just don’t see it. They are a brutally bad road team (7-23) and a sub-par defensive team and I don’t see any reason those flaws are going to be erased in the postseason. Their offensive system is hard to prep for during the regular season because it’s so unique, but the postseason provides time for that. We also don’t know what Steph is going to be when he gets back from injury.

Rohlin: I’ve always thought it would be a mistake to count out this team. Many did that last season, and they responded by winning their fourth championship in eight years. Sure, aside from Curry, the Warriors have looked disjointed for much of the season. But while he has been sidelined with a lower leg injury, they’ve seemingly begun to turn things around. They’ve made up a lot of ground in the Western Conference, Thompson has found his groove, and the Warriors are looking a heck-of-a-lot more cohesive. When Curry returns (potentially as soon as next week), they could be a threat. Don’t sleep on the league’s dynasty. In games that count, this team knows how to win.

Yaron Weitzman is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He is the author of “Tanking to the Top: The Philadelphia 76ers and the Most Audacious Process in the History of Professional Sports.” Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman.

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, “Rebound,” on NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and “Yao: A Life In Two Worlds.” He also has a daily podcast, “On The Ball with Ric Bucher.” Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.

Melissa Rohlin is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the league for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Times, the Bay Area News Group and the San Antonio Express-News. Follow her on Twitter @melissarohlin.

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