Women’s World Cup Group scenarios: How each team advances to round of 16

“I love history,” United States midfielder Megan Rapinoe told me at the 2012 Olympics in London. “But that doesn’t stop me from wanting to change it.”

One part of history that the USA women’s team does not want to change, is its record in the group stage of World Cups. In each of the tournament’s eight previous editions the Americans progressed comfortably to the knockout round; in fact, its worst overall finishing position has been a trio of bronze medals.

That puts it in elite company. Germany — which began its 2023 campaign with a resounding 6-0 thumping of Morocco — is the only other program to have safely avoided early elimination every single time.

Even with the event just days old, some nations already look to be in an almost unassailable position in their group. Much like the USA and the Netherlands in Group E, Group C heavyweights Spain and Japan seem to have little to worry about on the path to respective round of 16 spots.

Of the typical favorites Germany and Brazil will be feeling good about their first efforts, and England, despite struggling at times before beating Haiti 1-0, can probably afford to also turn one eye to the future.

Talking of history, no host nation has ever gone out in the group stage, which bodes well for Australia, top of Group B, and New Zealand.

However, some of the hopefuls have left themselves with work to do. Olympic champion Canada did itself no favors by drawing its opener, and the same applies to France, which was held in check by Jamaica.

As always, once we get to the final round of group matches, various permutations and scenarios come into play, and talk can turn to things like goal difference, head-to-head and even disciplinary records as forms of tiebreaker.

[USWNT ‘learned a few lessons’ from clawing back against the Netherlands]

WOMEN’S WORLD CUP SCENARIOS

GROUP A

• New Zealand — advances to the Round of 16 with a win vs. Switzerland, OR draw vs. Switzerland AND Norway win vs. Philippines (and tie-breaker vs. Norway), OR draw vs. Switzerland AND Norway-Philippines draw.
• New Zealand — is eliminated with a loss vs. Switzerland.
• New Zealand — wins Group A with a win vs. Switzerland AND Norway win/draw vs. Philippines, OR a win vs. Switzerland AND Philippines win vs. Norway (and tie-breaker vs. Philippines).
• Philippines — advances to the Round of 16 with a win vs. Norway, OR draw vs. Norway AND Switzerland win vs. New Zealand (by any scoreline).
• Philippines — is eliminated with a loss vs. Norway, OR draw vs. Norway AND Switzerland-New Zealand draw.
• Philippines — wins Group A with win vs. Norway AND Switzerland-New Zealand draw, OR win vs. Norway AND New Zealand win vs. Switzerland (and favorable tie-breaker vs. New Zealand).
• Switzerland — advances to the Round of 16 with a win/draw vs. New Zealand, OR loss vs. New Zealand AND Norway win vs. Philippines (and tie-breaker vs. Norway).
• Switzerland — is eliminated with a loss vs. New Zealand AND Philippines win vs. Norway (by any scoreline), OR a loss vs. New Zealand AND Norway win vs. Philippines (and tie-breaker vs. Norway).
• Switzerland —  wins Group A with a win vs. New Zealand, OR a draw vs. New Zealand AND Norway win/draw vs. Philippines.
• Norway — advances to the Round of 16 with a win vs. Philippines AND Switzerland win vs. New Zealand (by any scoreline), OR win vs. Philippines AND Switzerland-New Zealand draw (and favorable tie-breaker vs. New Zealand), OR win vs. Philippines AND New Zealand win vs. Switzerland.
• Norway — is eliminated with a draw/loss vs. Philippines.
• Norway — cannot win Group A.

GROUP B

• Canada — advances to the Round of 16 with a win/draw vs. Australia.
• Canada — is eliminated with a loss vs. Australia AND Nigeria win/draw vs. Ireland, OR with a loss vs. Australia AND Nigeria win/draw vs. Ireland (and unfavorable tie-breaker vs. Nigeria).
• Canada — wins Group B with a win vs. Australia AND Ireland win/draw vs. Nigeria, OR win vs. Australia AND Nigeria win vs. Ireland (and favorable tie-breaker vs. Nigeria), OR draw vs. Australia AND Nigeria draw vs. Ireland (and favorable tie-breaker vs. Nigeria).
• Australia — advances to the Round of 16 with win vs. Canada, OR draw vs. Canada AND Nigeria loss vs. Ireland (and favorable tie-breaker vs. Nigeria).
• Australia — is eliminated with a loss vs. Canada, OR draw vs. Canada AND Nigeria win/draw vs. Ireland.
• Australia — wins Group B with a win vs. Canada AND Ireland win/draw vs. Nigeria.
• Nigeria — advances to the Round of 16 with a win/draw vs. Ireland, OR loss vs. Ireland AND Canada win vs. Australia.
• Nigeria — is eliminated with a loss vs. Ireland AND Australia win vs. Canada (and unfavorable tie-breaker vs. Canada), OR a loss vs. Ireland AND Australia-Canada draw (and unfavorable tie-breaker vs. Australia).
• Nigeria — wins Group B with a win vs. Ireland AND Canada win vs. Australia (and favorable tie-breaker vs. Canada), OR a draw vs. Ireland AND Canada draw vs. Australia (and favorable tie-breaker vs. Canada).
• Ireland — has been eliminated from advancing.

GROUP C

• Spain — has advanced to the Round of 16, currently ahead of Japan due to better goal differential (+8); will win the group with a win or draw against Japan.
• Japan — has advanced to the Round of 16, currently behind Spain due to goal differential (+7); will win the group if it defeats Spain in final group match; if the two draw, Spain will win the group due to goal differential.
• Costa Rica — has been eliminated from advancing.
• Zambia — has been eliminated from advancing.

GROUP D

• England — advances to the Round of 16 with a win/draw vs. China, OR loss vs. China AND Haiti win/draw vs. Denmark (and favorable tie-breaker vs. China), OR loss vs. China AND Denmark win vs. Haiti (and favorable tie-breakers vs. China & Denmark).
• England — is eliminated with a loss vs. China AND Denmark win vs. Haiti (and favorable tie-breakers vs. China & Denmark).
• England — wins Group D with a win/draw vs. China, OR loss vs. China AND Haiti win/draw vs. Denmark (and favorable tie-breaker vs. China), OR loss vs. China AND Denmark win vs. Haiti (and favorable tie-breakers vs. China & Denmark).
• Denmark — advances to the Round of 16 with a win vs. Haiti AND China loss/draw vs. England, OR win vs. Haiti AND China win vs. England (and favorable tie-breakers vs. China & England), OR draw vs. Haiti AND China loss vs. England, OR draw vs. Haiti AND China draw vs. England (and favorable tie-breaker vs. China), OR loss vs. Haiti AND China loss vs. England (and favorable tie-breakers vs. China & Haiti).
• Denmark — is eliminated with draw vs. Haiti AND China win vs. England, OR with a draw vs. Haiti AND China draw vs. England (and unfavorable tie-breaker vs. China), OR loss vs. Haiti AND China win/draw vs. England, OR loss vs. Haiti AND England win vs. China (and unfavorable tie-breakers vs. China & Haiti).
• Denmark — wins Group D with win vs. Haiti AND China win vs. England (and favorable tie-breakers vs. England & China).
• China — advances to the Round of 16 with a win vs. England, OR draw vs. England AND Denmark draw vs. Haiti (and favorable tie-breaker vs. Denmark), OR draw vs. England AND Denmark loss vs. Haiti, OR loss vs. England AND Denmark loss vs. Haiti (and favorable tie-breakers vs. Denmark & Haiti).
• China — is eliminated with loss vs. England AND Denmark win/draw vs. Haiti, OR draw vs. England AND Denmark win vs. Haiti, OR loss vs. England AND Haiti win vs. Denmark (and unfavorable tie-breakers vs. Denmark & Haiti).
• China — wins Group D with a win vs. England AND Haiti win/draw vs. Denmark, OR win vs. England AND Denmark win (and favorable tie-breakers vs. England & Denmark).
• Haiti — advances to the Round of 16 with a win vs. Denmark AND England win vs. China (and favorable tie-breakers vs. Denmark & China).
• Haiti — is eliminated with a draw/loss vs. Denmark, OR China win/draw vs. England.
• Haiti — cannot win the group.

GROUP E

• USA — advances to the Round of 16 with a win/draw vs. Portugal, OR loss vs. Portugal AND Vietnam win/draw vs. Netherlands (and favorable tie-breaker vs. Netherlands).
• USA — is eliminated with loss vs. Portugal AND Netherlands win/draw vs. Vietnam, OR loss vs. Portugal AND Vietnam win/draw vs. Netherlands (and unfavorable tie-breaker vs. Netherlands).
• USA — wins Group E with win vs. Portugal (and tie-breaker vs. Netherlands, if Netherlands does not win vs. Vietnam by 2 more goals than USA wins vs. Portugal), OR draw vs. Portugal AND Netherlands draw vs. Vietnam (by any scoreline).
• Netherlands — advances to the Round of 16 with a win/draw vs. Vietnam, OR loss vs. Vietnam AND Portugal win/draw vs. USA (and favorable tie-breaker vs. USA).
• Netherlands — is eliminated with loss vs. Vietnam AND Portugal win/draw vs. USA.
• Netherlands — wins Group E with win vs. Vietnam AND Portugal win/draw vs. USA, OR win vs. Vietnam AND USA win vs. Portugal (and favorable tie-breaker vs. USA).
• Portugal — advances to the Round of 16 with a win vs. USA, OR draw vs. USA AND Vietnam win vs. Netherlands.
• Portugal — is eliminated with loss vs. USA, OR draw vs. USA AND Netherlands win/draw vs. Vietnam.
• Portugal — wins Group E with win vs. USA AND Vietnam win/draw vs. Netherlands.
• Vietnam — has been eliminating from advancing.

GROUP F

• France — cannot clinch advancement or be eliminated, regardless of results.
• Brazil — advances to the Round of 16 if it beats France.
• Panama — is eliminated if it loses to Jamaica.
• Jamaica — cannot clinch advancement or be eliminated, regardless of results.

GROUP G

• Sweden — advances to the Round of 16 if it beats Italy (second group match).
• Italy — advances to the Round of 16 if it beats Sweden (second group match).
• South Africa — is eliminated if it loses or draws against Italy (final group match).
• Argentina — is eliminated if it loses or draws against Sweden (final group match).

GROUP H

• Germany — advances to the Round of 16 if it beats Colombia AND Morocco wins/draws vs. South Korea.
• Colombia — advances to the Round of 16 if beats Germany AND South Korea wins/draws vs Morocco.
• South Korea —  is eliminated if it loses to Morocco AND Germany wins/draws vs Colombia.
• Morocco — is eliminated if it loses to South Korea AND Colombia wins/draws vs Germany.