NFL straight-up picks, Week 8: Is Jaguars -best game?

Betting on the Buffalo Bills last week was a mistake, even if wagering against the New England Patriots remains sound logic. Welp, when in doubt, turn to the Chiefs.

Kansas City has already handled the Broncos in a 19-8 home win that wasn’t as close as that score suggests — Patrick Mahomes’ offense nearly doubled up Denver’s output and the Broncos didn’t get on the board until there was 6: 07 remaining. There have been modest signs of life from Sean Payton’s team, but wins over the two worst teams in the NFC North aren’t enough to convince me they’re able to do more than cover the spread here (a touchdown-plus at home).

Patrick Mahomes is steadily returning to world-eater form, relying on Travis Kelce and rookie Rashee Rice to guide a devastating offense. He’s got the league’s worst defense in his sights again, and unless Payton has some tricks up his sleeve, he knows what Denver will do to try and stop him. This one might be closer than expected, but it should still be a Chiefs win.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 6-1 (.857)

The Jaguars have one job: eliminate and/or weather the four to five good throws Kenny Pickett makes each week. This is, somehow, harder said than done.

Pickett has led fourth quarter comebacks in half the Steelers’ wins this season. With the game in the balance, he accesses some part of him that understands exactly where to put the football and uncorks game-changing throws, typically to George Pickens.

Fortunately, Jacksonville has a counter to that. Led by a rejuvenated Darious Williams, the Jags’ secondary is allowing just an 82.1 passer rating in coverage — 10th best in the NFL. Three of the team’s starting defensive backs allow a rating under 70.0 in coverage, and the fourth, Tyson Campbell, is a 23-year-old rising star with All-Pro upside. Finding space to throw in Week 8 will be difficult.

But that cuts both ways. Pittsburgh’s defense has been a cloud of CO2 to  fiery offenses. TJ Watt remains a monster and three of his last four opponents have scored 18 points or fewer. But there are gaps in his secondary and, if given time to throw, Trevor Lawrence has the receiving depth to exploit the Steelers’ weaknesses.

So, give me the Jags in a game where a loss would not surprise me. Pittsburgh keeps chugging along, winning games despite a dearth of playmaking talent. Jacksonville, however, is the better team.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 6-1 (.857)

This line keeps flipping back and forth between these heated NFC North rivals, and the Vikes very well may be the favorite when kickoff rolls around at Lambeau Field. But let’s work under the assumption a 3-4 Minnesota team would be a slight underdog on the road, even against a 2-4 Green Bay squad.

This matchup is unpleasant for the Packers. Jordan Love has struggled after a promising start. He fails to fit throws into tight windows downfield and processes his reads slowly enough to seize larger opportunities in big moments. Per ESPN, he’s completed just 31.6 percent of his passes while under pressure.

Now he faces Brian Flores’ defense — a team that’s blitzed on a league-high 56 percent of its snaps this season (no one else is above 42). Flores’ plan to conceal his weaknesses in the secondary by flooding pockets has worked, as Minnesota’s defensive DVOA has risen from 24th in 2022 under former coordinator Ed Donatell to 15th this season, all without major offseason acquisitions (indeed, starters like Za’Darius Smith and Patrick Peterson left).

I have no doubt Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur will have a gameplan to counteract this. I do doubt whether Love will be able to slide through his reads quickly enough to make it effective. Sunday’s game will likely be a mashup of bad throws under pressure and occasional strikes to open receivers and long runs after the catch. In this case, I’m better on the former to outweight the latter.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 5-2 (.714)