October 16, 2024 10: 07 am CT
The Oklahoma Sooners are halfway through the regular season at 4-2. They made it through nonconference play unscathed, but SEC play has been a different animal, as we all expected. What wasn’t expected was the difficulty the offense would have.
Though Oklahoma’s had injuries that has plagued the offense’s effectiveness and efficiency, the Sooners have been healthier along the offensive line the last two weeks and had a bye week to prepare for Texas. Unfortunately, Texas boasts the No. 1 defense in points per game this season. It was a bad time to be the Sooners offense that’s working to find its identity midseason after a quarterback change.
They have some really good pieces, but it’s an inexperienced group. True freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. and the offense have another tough test this week against a South Carolina team that has one of the best pass rushing defenses in the country.
But if the Sooners can get Deion Burks back this week, that gives them another weapon in the offense to work with that could potentially take some pressure off of Hawkins and the rest of the young guys. Oklahoma needs to find an answer and find one quick if they want to avoid another loss this week vs. South Carolina.
Each week, we take a look at how ESPN matchup predictor sees the rest of the schedule. Here’s an updated look at Oklahoma’s win probabilities after the loss to Texas.
Oct. 19: vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
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Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 65.7% (Down from 67.3%)
All-Time Series: No Previous Matchups
Projected running record: 5-2
Prior to the season, the game against South Carolina was being chalked up as one of Oklahoma’s for sure wins. At this point in the season, nothing is certain. The Sooners offense is struggling and the Gamecocks have a fast, physical, and athletic defensive front that is going to be a nightmare for Oklahoma’s offensive line and Michael Hawkins Jr.
Oct. 26: at Ole Miss Rebels
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Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
Sooners Win Probability: 17.1% (Up from 17.8%)
All-Time Series: Ole Miss leads 1-0
Projected running record: 5-3
The trip to Oxford looms large against one of the 10 best teams in the country. Ole Miss has a powerful offense and a defensive line that could create problems for the Sooners stagnant offense.
Nov. 2: vs. Maine Black Bears
NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 99% (Up from 98.9%)
All-Time Series: No Previous Matchups
Projected running record: 6-3
Maine provides a great opportunity to work out any challenges the Sooners have faced and get a lot of their young guys more experience.
Nov. 9: at Missouri Tigers
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Predicted Winner: Missouri
Sooners Win Probability: 38.3% (Up from 36.4%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 67-24-5
Projected running record: 6-4
Hopefully, by the time the Oklahoma Sooners go on the road to face Mizzou, they’ll have found a few more answers on the offensive side of the ball.
Nov. 16: Bye Week
NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
Hopefully, during Oklahoma’s second bye week, they can get Jalil Farooq back to finish the season. The Sooners will need all the firepower they can muster for their final two games against Alabama and LSU.
Nov. 23: vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
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Predicted Winner: Alabama
Sooners Win Probability: 28.4% (Up from 17.8%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 3-2-1
Projected running record: 6-5
Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and then were nearly upset by South Carolina at home. The Crimson Tide are still a good team, but seem to have lost the edge that came from playing under Nick Saban.
Get more Alabama Crimson Tide news, analysis and opinions on Roll Tide Wire.
Nov. 30: at LSU Tigers
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Predicted Winner: LSU
Sooners Win Probability: 36.4% (Down from 38.7%)
All-Time Series: LSU leads 2-1
Projected running record: 6-6
The LSU Tigers got a big win over the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday, putting on display a ferocious pass rush and an offense that can score quick. That trip to Baton Rouge will be a rough one no matter how well the Sooners are playing.
Get more LSU Tigers news, analysis and opinions on LSU Tigers Wire.
Postseason
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
A 6-6 season would not be acceptable in any world for the Oklahoma Sooners. Sure, we can talk about all the things OU dealt with this season, but at the end of the day, Oklahoma isn’t a 6-6 program and it would be the second time in Brent Venables’ tenure the Sooners fini