Somehow, it’s already Week 10 of the college football season, and conference standings, the College Football Playoff race and Heisman Trophy campaigns are heating up as we head toward the first football Saturday in November.
We here at For The Win had a solid stretch of picks for our Week 9 games, but Blake Schuster remains at the top of the leaderboard with a 53-41 record against the spread so far this season. But the rest of us are trying to catch up, and hopefully Week 10’s games will help.
This week among our 10 picks against the spread, we’ve got a couple ranked matchups with No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State and then No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU for an ACC showdown — plus some games that could be chaotic or just ugly.
So here are our 10 college football picks against the spread for Week 10. Tail responsibly, and best of luck out there.
| Name | Last Week | YTD |
| Blake Schuster | 5-5 | 53-41 |
| Michelle Martinelli | 7-3 | 51-43 |
| Christian D’Andrea | 6-4 | 49-45 |
| Mitchell Northam | 5-5 | 48-46 |
| Tyler Nettuno | 5-5 | 41-53 |
All odds via BetMGM
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State, Saturday, noon ET on Fox
Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch-USA TODAY NETWORK
Opening Line: Ohio State -3.5
Blake Schuster: Penn State +3.5
The Nittany Lions should not be a home dog based on how Ohio State looked last week. But they should be a home dog based on James Franklin’s ability to lose these big matchups in crushing fashion. It’s no stretch to say his job depends on a win here.
Mitchell Northam: Ohio State -3.5
Let’s see it, Penn State. Prove me wrong.
Christian D’Andrea: Penn State +3.5
Feels like the kind of game the Nittany Lions lose on a heartbreaking field goal as time expires.
Michelle Martinelli: Ohio State -3.5
Both teams didn’t look great last week, and they’re each a little banged up. But between Penn State’s penchant for slow offensive starts and quarterback Drew Allar being a game-time decision because of an injury, the Buckeyes probably cover here.
Tyler Nettuno: Ohio State -3.5
Look, I’m certainly re-evaluating my priors on Ohio State a bit after the way it played on Saturday. But I still question Penn State’s ability to win these big games, and Drew Allar’s status being in question doesn’t ease my concerns.
Duke at No. 5 Miami, Saturday, noon ET on ABC/ESPN+
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: Miami -20.5
Blake Schuster: Duke +20.5
I’m paying less attention to the fact Duke lost in overtime against SMU than am I to the fact Duke forced six turnovers in that game. Miami takes care of the ball well, but that’s a confident defense it has to face now. Not to mention the whole Manny Diaz of this all.
Mitchell Northam: Duke +20.5
The Blue Devils’ offense might be incompetent, but the defense is Capital-G Good. Plus, I have to believe Manny Diaz is at least a little motivated to stick to Miami.
Christian D’Andrea: Duke +20.5
Miami beat Florida State by 22, but as we all know Duke is at least two points better than FSU.
Michelle Martinelli: Duke +20.5
Miami will win (or definitely should win), but the Hurricanes are basically a handful of points away from having multiple losses this season. The Blue Devils’ offense is nothing special, but their defense could mess Cam Ward and Miami up a bit.
Tyler Nettuno: Duke +20.5
The Blue Devils simply won’t have the offensive firepower to win this game, but this may be the best defense Miami has faced yet. This is personal for Manny Diaz, and I expect Duke to throw some punches in the first half and keep it close enough to cover.
No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas, Saturday, noon ET on ESPN
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: Ole Miss -9.5
Blake Schuster: Arkansas +7
The Razorbacks are among the most two-faced teams in FBS right now. That said, they’ll cover against an Ole Miss team that looks directionless at the moment.
Mitchell Northam: Arkansas +7
This feels like too many points for a home dog, especially this Hogs team that has proven it can punch above its weight.
Christian D’Andrea: Arkansas +7
I have no idea what the Razorbacks actually are, but they’re good enough to keep this close.
Michelle Martinelli: Ole Miss -7
It’s a lot of points for sure, but I think Lane Kiffin and co. hit the gas here to just barely stay in the College Football Playoff conversation.
Tyler Nettuno: Ole Miss -7
Is Arkansas capable of winning this game? Absolutely. But I think Ole Miss has been written off a little too quickly after a pair of pretty flukey losses. I don’t see Lane Kiffin’s team dropping another game like this.
Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois, Saturday, noon ET on FS1
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: Illinois -2.5
Blake Schuster: Minnesota -3
It’s time for the Gophers to bury Illinois in the Big Ten race. Sorry, Bret, but you’re going to look great covered in Duke’s Mayo in a month or so.
Mitchell Northam: Illinois +3
I’m not really sure why Illinois is a home dog here, but I believe in the Fighting Berts.
Christian D’Andrea: Illinois +3
Minnesota is heating up, but I don’t think it’s “lay points on a road against a solid conference opponent” good this year.
Michelle Martinelli: Minnesota -3
The Golden Gophers looked better last week than previously, and Illinois is nursing its wounds from an ugly Oregon — though it should probably still be favored. Minnesota is looking better, and this is about the time of the year anyway when a ranked Illinois team gets fully exposed.
Tyler Nettuno: Illinois +3
I’m impressed with the progress Minnesota seems to be making on offense, but I have a hard time believing it will find the same success against Illinois that it did against Maryland. I’m frankly surprised to see the Gophers favored here, especially on the road.
No. 1 Oregon at Michigan, Saturday, 3: 30 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+
Justin Casterline/Getty Images
Opening Line: Oregon -3.5
Blake Schuster: Oregon -14.5
Michigan is feeling pretty good after beating Michigan State, but frankly, it shouldn’t. Reality is about to hit back when another real contender comes to the Big House. Oregon has passed every test this season, and it’ll continue to do so here against an offense that isn’t built to keep up.
Mitchell Northam: Oregon -14.5
Two-ish touchdowns feels like the right margin here, but it could also be a lot more. The Wolverines ain’t built to keep up with the Ducks this season.
Christian D’Andrea: Oregon -14.5
Finally, I can get back to having so, so little faith in the Wolverines. It had been a while.
Michelle Martinelli: Oregon -14.5
There is no way Michigan’s offense can match Oregon point for point, and the Wolverines’ defense gave up 17 points to a very mediocre Michigan State team last week. The Ducks are so clearly looking like the best team in the country, and Michigan is pretty much on another planet.
Tyler Nettuno: Oregon -14.5
This spread is a bit on the large side for my liking, but I just don’t have enough confidence in Michigan to score points in this game, despite some semblance of progress on offense in the win over Michigan State.
Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia in Jacksonville, Saturday, 3: 30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+
Bob Self/Florida Times-Union
Opening Line: Georgia -20.5
Blake Schuster: Florida +16.5
As someone with no rooting stake in either team, but who loves chaos, I cannot wait for this game to save Billy Napier’s job.
Mitchell Northam: Georgia -16.5
Is Florida better than we thought they’d be? Yes. Are the Gators good enough to beat the Dawgs? No.
Christian D’Andrea: Georgia -16.5
The Bulldogs have won each of their last three Cocktail Parties by at least 22 points. Don’t think *thisFlorida team is gonna be the one to break the streak.
Michelle Martinelli: Florida +16.5
The Gators probably aren’t winning — but wouldn’t that be some fun to inject into the SEC? — and even though Georgia has been looking notably stronger compared with the first half of the season, you can’t discount weirdness and high tensions of a rivalry game.
Tyler Nettuno: Georgia -16.5
The Gators seem to be making progress on both sides of the ball, but the defense has been feasting against struggling offenses while the offense has yet to turn in a strong showing against a good defensive front. I don’t like that recipe heading into this game, though I don’t expect Florida to get absolutely rolled.
Texas Tech at No. 11 Iowa State, Saturday, 3: 30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Reese Strickland-Imagn Images
Opening Line: Iowa State -11
Blake Schuster: Texas Tech +13.5
This matchup has a history of the final score staying within two possessions. I’ll ride with the trend and a sneaky good Tech team.
Mitchell Northam: Texas Tech +13.5
It feels like Iowa State is going to get got at some point. Texas Tech seems