Cowboys analytics roundup: Mike Zimmer’s defense rounding into form

The vibes are good in Dallas right now, whether you like it or not. Many fans had come around to the idea of this season being lost and getting rewarded with a premium draft pick – and a new head coach – as a result. Now, though, the Cowboys have won three games in four tries and all the momentum seems to be pointing to continuity with the staff.

Apologies to those who were hoping for a prized player in this year’s draft, but the Cowboys have found their winning ways lately with some plain ol’ good football. The defense has been especially good, and the recent surge offers legitimate promise in running things back with this coaching staff. Let’s dive into the analytics to get a better sense of it all.

First, a dose of reality: the Cowboys are still not a good team. They are technically still in the hunt – Dallas currently has a 0.6% chance of making the playoffs, but they can only do so as the seventh seed – but it’s highly probable they get eliminated this week or next week.

That said, the team is playing better lately. Both the offense and defense have better weighted DVOA grades than their season-long DVOA grades, a reflection of the improvements the Cowboys have made. It’s still not enough to make them a true dark horse contender, but it’s something to feel positive about.

The EPA-based team tiers paint a similar picture. Two weeks ago, they were in the bottom three in the league but have now climbed all the way up to 27th, and they’re likely to pull ahead of both the Patriots and Jaguars with the way those two teams are playing right now.

Furthermore, if we look just at the last four weeks – during which the Cowboys have started to find their footing – the Cowboys are actually dead even with the Bengals for 10th in total team EPA/play. Granted, all three of their remaining opponents are well ahead of them even in this last stretch, but that offers an idea of just how much better the Cowboys are right now.

Offense

The offense has been notably better in these last four weeks, especially. They still perform about as you’d expect for an offense that’s starting Cooper Rush, but things have gotten better. McCarthy has settled into a groove in his first time calling plays for Rush on a consistent basis.

Over the last four weeks, Dallas is 14th in both EPA/play and success rate. Even better: they’re fourth in rushing success rate. Rico Dowdle has emerged as a serious threat, with three straight 100+ yard rushing games. That’s a heck of a turnaround from where this run game was just a couple months ago.

Of course, the run game has been such an emphasis lately because Rush is, well, Rush. Without throwing any disrespect his way, Rush is still just a backup quarterback. He’s not someone you want to be starting, but Rush is now showing why the Cowboys trust him to play when he has to.

Outside of a very curious but consistent fumbling issue, Rush has been solid. His efficiency metrics all put him right where you want a backup to be: just on the fringe of the Top 32 in the league. He also seems to be getting more confident in his supporting cast, but Rush offers a sufficient starting level of talent to win with if other things can go right. And lately, they’ve been going very right.