Cocoa prices have fallen nearly 70% since last Valentine’s Day, but that won’t make heart-shaped boxes of chocolate or even chocolate Easter bunnies more affordable this year.
Chocolate prices at U.S. retail stores rose 14% between Jan. 1 and the first week of February compared to the same period last year, according to market research company Datasembly. That’s on top of a 7.8% increase for the same period in 2025.
Europe has seen even steeper price increases. In Germany, chocolate prices rose 18.9% in 2025, according to government figures.
Here’s what caused the price of cocoa futures to rise and then fall — and why that may not be reflected in the prices customers are paying.
Cocoa prices more than doubled in 2024 due to insufficient rainfall and crop diseases in West Africa, which supplies more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa, which is made from the dried beans of the cacao tree, is the main ingredient in both dark and white chocolate.
Weather conditions have improved since then in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and cocoa production is increasing in Ecuador and other countries, according to an analysis by J.P. Morgan. The resulting supply increase is one reason cocoa prices are coming down.
But they’re also dropping because of lower global demand. Chocolate getting more expensive has turned off consumers, so manufacturers have cut the amount of chocolate they use or shifted to other products like gummy candies to keep prices in check, said Chris Costagli, a food thought leader at the market research company NIQ.
In the U.S., annual retail sales of chocolate rose 6.7% in 2025 compared to the prior year, largely because of price increases, according to NIQ data. But the number of individual products sold was down 1.3%, as consumers bought less chocolate overall.
The Trump administration’s tariffs were another reason U.S. chocolate prices increased last year.
The administration put a tariff averaging 15% on cocoa-producing countries last February, which raised the price of U.S. cocoa imports, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve.
In November, the administration removed tariffs on cocoa and other commodities that can’t be grown in the U.S., including coffee, spices and tropical fruit.
But tariffs of 15% or more on products from the European Union, including chocolates, remain in place.
So far, declining cocoa prices haven’t necessarily let chocolate lovers pay less.
Costagli compares the situation to gas prices. Even when the cost of oil goes down, pr