Tom Edgington and Rob England
BBC Verify
BBC
Good weather and the willingness of people smugglers to cram more people onto small boats have been highlighted by the government as factors driving the level of migrant Channel crossings.
The Home Office has released figures showing that the number of “red days” – when conditions are considered favourable for small boat crossings – peaked in 2024-25.
The figures also show a rise in “severely overcrowded boats” in the same period.
The Conservatives and Reform have accused the government of “blaming the weather” for the record crossings so far this year. The government has said it is working to fix “a broken asylum system” left by the Tories.
Rising numbers
The Home Office figures reveal there were 190 red days in the 12 months to April 2025 – an 80% increase on the previous year and the highest number since records began.
Red days are defined as days which the Met Office has assessed as “likely” or “highly likely” to see small boat crossings, based on things like the height of waves, wind speed and rainfall.
By publishing the red day figures, the first official release of this kind, the government is suggesting a link between good weather conditions and the level of migrant crossings.
Read More