Russia has accused Moldova of plotting a military operation in Transnistria, a Russian-backed secessionist region, setting off concerns among some analysts that Moscow might be a “false flag” attack in Moldova.
Russian intelligence said earlier this week that Moldova’s President Maia Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria, which borders Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for her second term as president on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that NATO was turning Moldova into a weapons hub for Ukraine, an accusation that is only likely to further fuel fears that Moscow might be seeking a justification for potential action against its smaller neighbour.
Here is more about what is going on with Russia and Moldova — and what to expect.
What has Russia alleged?
On Monday, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said that Moldova’s Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria. Russian intelligence speculated that the military operation could escalate into war.
Sandu’s chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, refuted the claims, insisting that the country had no such plans to militarily enter Transnistria, even though it claims the territory as a part of Moldova.
Then, on Wednesday, Russia added a new allegation — that the US-led NATO had transferred a large number of weapons to Moldova in recent months. Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said that Moscow believed these weapons were ultimately intended for Ukraine. She cited Sandu’s pro-Western leanings to bolster her claims.
In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly suggested that not just Ukraine, but other countries that help it in its war against Moscow could potentially be treated by the Kremlin as enemies that it might attack.
What are the ‘false flag’ concerns?
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has raised the alarm that Moldova could be Moscow’s next target, urging Western leaders to address Moldova’s concerns.
When Sandu was sworn in for her second term this week in the capital Chisinau, she said, “We managed to open the door wide to the European Union.” Moldova has been a candidate country for the EU since June 2022, waiting for Brussels to formally accept its request to join the group.
The Kremlin’s latest accusations, say analysts from the Washington, DC, based Institute for the Study of War, could be part of a larger plan to disrupt Moldova’s accession into the European Union (EU), by destabilising it. The Kremlin, the ISW cautioned in a report, could also be setting conditions “for a false flag operation in Transnistria”.
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is a Russia-allied breakaway region of Moldova, sandwiched between part of the Dniester River in Moldova, and Ukraine. Romania lies to its West.
The region broke away from Moldova in 1990. In September 2