Dissolution of the House is a possibility amid ongoing spats between the two main coalition parties. (Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill)
Signs of conflict within the coalition government have been more frequent this year, with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on several occasions denying rumours of cabinet reshuffles or even parliamentary dissolutions.
Even though the leaders of the coalition parties, as well as influential figures behind the scenes such as Thaksin Shinawatra, have tried to quell any rifts by expressing unity, government instability and the dissolution of parliament is still a concern for the business sector.
COMPROMISE FOR NOW
Kiatanantha Lounkaew, a lecturer at Thammasat University’s Faculty of Economics, said the ongoing standoff between the Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party is not so severe that it will lead to a dissolution of the House of Representatives.
“The two parties are not strong enough to fight in a new election, so I think they will be patient now. But who knows what will happen next that could lead to a breakup between them?” he told the Bangkok Post.
Mr Kiatanantha said Bhumjaithai is unlikely to be dissolved as a result of the Election Commission’s investigation into alleged collusion among peer voting during the 2024 Senate election.
Ms Paetongtarn beckoned to Mr Anutin during a press conference after a cabinet meeting. (Photo: Chanat Katanyu)
“This might be kind of a political game that tries to eliminate the power of Bhumjaithai, but I think the party will manage to survive and not be dissolved,” he said.
Even if the ongoing tensions between the two main coalition parties eventually leads to a dissolution of the House, Mr Kiatanantha thinks the weak economy can cope with such an event. The greater impact would come from the composition of the next administration’s economic team.
“We are living on the edge of uncertainty and everyone is preparing for change. However, confidence and the economic situation will improve quickly if the new faces on the economic team are widely recognised as suitable for their roles,” he said.
The Thai unit of China Galaxy Securities International (CGSI) said uncertainty in Thailand’s political landscape has been mounting based on several factors, primarily the tension between the two coalition partners.
Each party is trying to promote its own policies while blocking the other’s. Pheu Thai wants to legalise casinos via an entertainment complex bill, but Bhumjaithai wants Pheu Thai to allow it, via the Interior Ministry, to issue online gambling licences.
However, Pheu Thai does not want to support online gambling, so Bhumjaithai has withheld support for the entertainment complex bill.
It is widely perceived that Bhumjaithai controls three-quarters of the Senate, said Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at CGSI.
“With the ongoing tit-for-tat between the leading coalition parties, we believe the government is unable to function properly, especially given these tough economic times,” said Mr Kasem.
“Even so, we believe an interim government will be unable to do its job as the conflict between the two parties is likely to continue.”
In this scenario, CGSI expects the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index to fall to about 1,100 points.
One level of improvement from that worst-case scenario would be Bhumjaithai’s expulsion from the coalition, resulting in a major cabinet reshuffle, as Bhumjaithai is widely believed to have influence over most of the senators, according to CGSI.
“This makes it difficult for any major governmen
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