For small businesses, the biggest change in the new year will be the arrival of a presumably more business-friendly administration in Washington. But there are other shifts owners should keep on their radar.
Among them: changes to state-level overtime and minimum wage rules, the delayed federal FinCEN registration, taxes on payments from third-party providers like Venmo and PayPal, and anything that might affect inflation, including tariffs.
The Small Business Administration is also ushering in a new leader, Trump loyalist Kelly Loeffler, assuming she’s confirmed by the Senate.
“I think there a general sense that there is going to be obviously a pro-business administration on the regulatory side,” said Karen Kerrigan, President and CEO of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council, an advocacy group. “But there could be some nuances specifically on, say, workplace or labor rules. But that’s still to be determined.”
Here’s what small business owners should keep in mind in 2025.
Inflation remains a wild card for 2025. Inflation has retreated from its peak of 7.2% in June 2022, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, standing at 2.3% in October. Moves by the Federal Reserve and the incoming Trump administration are likely to swing inflation one way or another.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its projection for the inflation rate for 2025 to 2.5% from a prior estimate of 2.1% issued in September. The Fed also forecast just two rate cuts for the year, down from four. Sticky inflation and high rates could mean higher costs for both consumers and businesses.
Meanwhile, Trump has proposed a range of tax cuts — on Social Security benefits, tipped income and overtime income — as well as a scaling-back of regulations. Collectively, these moves could stimulate growth. At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a variety of tariffs on imports and to seek mass deportations of migrants, which could accelerate inflation.
Either way, inflation is certain to remain top of mind for small business owners.
“What we’ve seen for the past two-and-a-half years is that inflation is the top concern for small business,” said Tom Sullivan, vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “When you’re thinking about 2025, there is a significant question on whether or not the incoming president’s policies are going to bring inflation down.”
Established in 1953, the SBA has been through many different administrations. The agency offers resources to small businesses and helps administer small business and disaster recovery loans. It played a crucial role during the pandemic, helping distribute small business aid.
Trump said he would nominate Kelly Loeffler, a former U.S. Senator from Georgia, as the head of the SBA, pending confirmation. She replaces Isabella Casillas Guzman, who has served as the administrator since 2021. A staunch Trump loyalist, Loeffler is also co-chair of his inaugural committee.
Loeffler hasn’t made any statement about plans for the SBA.
“I wouldn’t ex