Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised his probability of a stock market crash this year as oil tops $100, the dollar posts its best week in a year, and the Iran conflict expands to Saudi Arabia.
Updated Mar 9, 2026, 5: 13 a.m. Published Mar 9, 2026, 5: 04 a.m.
Bitcoin is holding up better than it probably should.
The largest cryptocurrency traded at $67,378 on Monday morning, up 1.1% over the past 24 hours and essentially flat on the week, while the world around it deteriorated sharply.
Among majors, ether rose 2.3% to $1,981, hovering just below $2,000. BNB gained 1.4% to $624. Dogecoin added 1.8% to $0.09. Solana climbed 1.8% to $83.69 but remains down 1.5% on the week, still the weakest major over a seven-day basis. XRP was flat at $1.35, down 1% on the week.
S&P 500 futures fell more than 2% in Asian trading. The VIX surged to its highest level since April’s tariff turmoil. Oil is above $100. The dollar just posted its steepest weekly gain in a year.
Meanwhile, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a U.S. market meltdown to 35%, up from 20%, while slashing the odds of a melt-up to just 5%.
“The US economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place,” Yardeni wrote. “If the oil shock persists, the Fed’s dual mandate would be stuck between the increasing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment.”
In meltdown conditions, risk assets across the board tend to suffer as investors pull capital from anything with volatility and move into cash, Treasuries, or the dollar. Bitcoin has historically not been immune to that dynamic, falling alongside equities during every major risk-off episode since 2020 despite its reputation as a hedge.
Elsewhere, NYDIG’s head of research Greg Cipolaro offered a framework for understan