Topline
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in nationwide surveys and the 7 swing states less than a week before Election Day—but there’s a slim possibility of it ending in an Electoral College tie inbetween the 2 prospects, and in the uncommon occasion there is one, it would mostlikely lead to Trump endingupbeing president.
Former President Donald Trump speaks throughout a project occasion at the Resch Center on October 30, 2024 … [+] in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Key Facts
If the election ends in a tie with Trump and Harris getting 269 electoral votes each, the House would vote to choose the next president and the Senate would choice the vice president, with the House assembling on Jan. 6, 2025.
Instead of the House holding a requirement vote, each state delegation would choice a single prospect inbetween the 3 who got the most electoral votes, per guidelines laid out in the 12th Amendment of the Constitution—meaning big states like California (52 House members) and Texas (38) have as much sway as states like Wyoming (just one member).
The 50 delegations would nearly definitely vote along celebration lines, which would mostlikely offer Republicans the edge as they’re preferred to control the bulk of state delegations after Election Day (even as the race for which celebration controls the bulk of seats in the House is carefully objectedto).
The Senate, which is anticipated to flip to Republican control, would then vote to choose the vice president, who would requirement 51 votes to win.
If a prospect for president is notable to safeandsecure votes from 26 delegations before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, and the Senate has currently chosen a vice president, that individual would endupbeing acting president till the House vote is settled.
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Is A Tied Race Likely?
A 269-269 Electoral College tie is thoughtabout extremely notlikely—Five Thirty Eight anticipates a 1-in-300 possibility. There are anumberof situations that might outcome in a tie, consistingof if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020 otherthan Michigan and Pennsylvania, or if Harris turns North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. There would likewise be a tie if Harris wins the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the other 4 swing states plus Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, which covers Omaha and normally votes Democratic, while the rest of the state is dependably red.
What To Watch For
The election might likewise endedupbeing “contingent” if a third-party prospect wins electoral votes and neither Trump nor Harris reach the 270-vote limit to win. Based on surveys, it’s near-impossible that citizens in any state award electors to a third-party prospect, however about half of states do not lawfully need their electors to vote for the prospect citizens chosen, significance if Trump and Harris each win 269 electors, some might go rogue and choose a third-party prospect, who would then be in the running for the House vote. “Faithless electors” are uncommon, however not unmatched—in the 2016 election, 5 promised to Hillary Clinton and 2 vowed to Trump voted for other prospects.
Big Number
94. That’s the number of electoral votes up for grabs in the 7 swing states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd District. If Harris wins all the non-swing states Biden won in 2020, as anticipated, she’d have 225 electoral votes, leaving Trump with 219.
Has An Electoral College Tie Ever Happened?
There hasn’t been an Electoral College tie giventhat 1800, in the race inbetween previous President Thomas Jefferson and incumbent President John Adams, when Congress took 36 tallies to choose Jefferson. In 1824, numerous prospects won electoral votes, with Andrew Jackson getting the alotof, however not the bulk. The House rather chosen John Qu