Joshua Lim: Bitcoin’s divergence from gold is causing market instability, retail interest will drive price movements, and quantum computing poses risks for institutional investors | Unchained

Key takeaways

• Current crypto price levels are significantly lower compared to previous highs.
• The resilience of risk assets will dictate future crypto market performance.
• Bitcoin’s divergence from gold is causing market instability.
• Bitcoin is experiencing downward trends while other risk assets rise.
• The market is currently driven by capital flows rather than fundamental catalysts.
• Quantum computing concerns are impacting Bitcoin’s appeal to institutional investors.
• The crypto market is expected to remain range-bound this year.
• Market structure is healthier now due to less leverage and unsecured credit.
• The market is consolidating due to over-leverage and speculative fervor.
• Capital is expected to return to crypto when other speculative assets lose appeal.
• Crypto is increasingly seen as one of many asset classes.
• Retail investors are significantly influencing asset prices across classes.
• Retail interest in Bitcoin is expected to return, driving price movements.
• The current market is characterized by recycled capital rather than new retail investment.
• Increased investor activism in crypto companies is likely as they explore real-world assets.

Guest intro

Joshua Lim serves as Global Co-Head of Markets at FalconX. He co-founded crypto derivatives trading firm Arbelos Markets, which was acquired by FalconX in 2025. Previously, he led derivatives trading at Genesis Trading and Galaxy Digital after starting in equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs.

Historical price movements and market dynamics

• “The current price levels in crypto markets reflect a significant regression compared to previous highs.” – Joshua Lim
• “These levels are obviously distressing for anyone who’s worked in the industry for quite some time.” – Joshua Lim
• The future performance of crypto markets will depend on the resilience of risk assets.
• “It’s entirely gonna be a function of how well risk assets can hold up.” – Joshua Lim
• The divergence between Bitcoin and gold is causing instability in the crypto market.
• “This very large divergence and in particular, the most stark divergence is between Bitcoin and gold.” – Joshua Lim
• Bitcoin is currently experiencing downward price movement while other risk assets are trending upwards.
• “Bitcoin is the only chart that’s pointing downwards while everything else is up into the right.” – Joshua Lim
• The current market for Bitcoin is driven by flows rather than fundamental catalysts.
• “It’s really very much a flows driven market and what we’re seeing is like the flows… flowing into more established asset classes in particular with gold.” – Joshua Lim

Institutional concerns and market forecasts

• The quantum question poses a significant concern for Bitcoin, affecting its attractiveness to institutional investors compared to gold.
• “It’s the quantum question and that narrative… is an overhang.” – Joshua Lim
• The crypto market is expected to remain in a prolonged range-bound state this year.
• “I do think that we’re gonna be on a prolonged range-bound market.” – Joshua Lim
• The current market structure is healthier due to the absence of gross overextensions of leverage or unsecured credit.
• “Market structure is a lot healthier this time around.” – Joshua Lim
• The current market is experiencing a consolidation phase due to over-leverage and speculative fervor.
• “The market got a little bit over-leveraged and there was a little bit too much speculative fervor.” – Joshua Lim
• Capital will eventually return to crypto as speculative assets like stocks and commodities lose their appeal.
• “I think at some point all of that money will come back to cry