As we near the midway point of the NBA season, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic remains the favorite to win league MVP.
Jokic’s odds improved to +170 from +250 over the last week, as the big man is averaging 25.5 points and 11.8 rebounds as of Tuesday.
The Joker is alone atop the oddsboard, but there’s a player closing in on him in the MVP race. That player is Oklahoma’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.3 points and 6.3 assists. His odds to win the award over the last week have shortened to +280 from +350, moving him from third on the board to second.
Let’s take a look at the odds.
ODDS TO WIN 2023-24 NBA MVP:*
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets: +170 (bet $10 to win $27 total)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder: +280 (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Luka Doncic, Mavericks: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Joel Embiid, 76ers: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Jayson Tatum, Celtics: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Kevin Durant, Suns: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
Devin Booker, Suns: +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total)
De’Aaron Fox, Kings: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
*odds as of 1/16/2024
While SGA is closing in on Jokic, big man Joel Embiid has seen his odds lengthen recently.
Last week, Embiid’s odds were second on the board at +300. And even though his 34.9 points per game are the best in the NBA, his odds to win the award are currently fifth at +800, possibly due to his on-court absences.
In order to win the award, the new collective bargaining agreement says that a player must play at least 65 out of 82 games. Embiid has already missed 10 out of 38 games, meaning he can only miss seven of the next 44 games in order to remain eligible for the award.
FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre weighed in on the MVP (Editor’s Note: Expert’s MVP pick made in July):
Only three players stand out to me early as possibly actionable MVP bets to make for the upcoming season.
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Having advanced to the conference finals in four of the last six years, the Celtics are one of my favorites to win the title, and Tatum is the primary reason. I’m buying the trade of Marcus Smart as a win for the Celtics and Tatum. It will enable the 25-year-old to be the true leader of this team, something Smart has been since entering the league.
Tatum’s points, rebounds and assists have all gone up each year he’s been in the league, and his 30-8-4 were all career highs last year. A first-team All-NBA player each of the last two seasons, I expect him to win the MVP — and an NBA title.
PICK: Jayson Tatum (+800 at time of pick) to win MVP
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
The two-time MVP is coming off an NBA title, Finals MVP, and the unofficial title of best player in the NBA. He’s the favorite for a third MVP, largely on the heels of an insane playoff run where he averaged 30-12-9 over 20 games and also hit a staggering 46% of 3-pointers. So why not bet on him?
You can’t quantify his desire now that he already has a title and his trophy case has everything. Knowing he’s done it all, will we see him pull back in the regular season to save himself for the postseason? We saw that late last season, and it worked. Either way, he’s the best player in the game, so worth a sprinkle.
PICK: Nikola Jokic (+430 at time of pick) to win MVP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
If I’m looking for a super sleeper to win the MVP next year, it has to be SGA. Having just turned 25, he is coming off an excellent season in which he averaged a career-high 31 points and was first-team All-NBA.
Before you scoff, remember the Sacramento Kings improved by 18 wins last year, and the Thunder might be a breakout candidate, as they look to build on the play-in appearance last year while adding Chet Holmgren to the starting lineup.
PICK: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1700 at time of pick) to win MVP