2023 MLB chances: How to bet Astros-Rangers Game 4; ALCS choice, forecast

By Will Hill

FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Houston, we have a series. 

The Astros won Game 3 of the ALCS in Texas 8-5 and now have a opportunity to even the series Thursday night in Game 4 at 8 p.m. ET live on FS1. 

Max Scherzer’s veryfirst getaway in a month was a rocky one. After a tidy veryfirst inning, he provided up 5 runs in 4 innings, as the Rangers lost for the veryfirst time this postseason. Considering how well the Rangers were playing without him on the mound, some may concern the choice to play Scherzer after such a long layoff.

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However, I comprehend the resistance to state “no” to a pitcher with Scherzer’s résumé when he guarantees everybody he’s completely healthy, specifically when the other choices are Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney — functional arms definitely, however they’re not future Hall of Famers. 

Regardless, it was a difficult call and the Rangers can still retake command of this series with a win in Game 4. 

Jose Urquidy will start on the mound for the Astros, while the Rangers counter with the abovementioned Heaney. The Rangers are a little -130 preferred (meaning a $13 bet wins back $10) and the Over/Under for runs scored is the greatest it’s been all series at 9.5. 

Let’s discover a bet for Game 4.

Runs, Runs, Runs

The veryfirst thing to anticipate are runs and lots of them. 

Houston and Texas satisfied 13 times this season and in 8 of those 13 videogames, double-digit runs were scored. In truth, the Astros scored double-digits by themselves in 5 of the 13 conferences. Needless to state, the videogames inbetween these 2 tend to be high-scoring, with the regular-season match yielding 167 overall runs, an average of almost 13 runs per videogame. 

We didn’t see that volatility in Game 1 — a 2-0 last — however that was after a relatively long layoff inbetween the ALDS and ALCS for both. A bit of rust was inescapable, in addition to the reality that each group was beginning its No. 1 pitcher. 

Now, it’s a various story. Since we are at the back of the rotations, both groups are sendingout their No. 4 starter to the bump. The offenses are in more of a rhythm, playing now for the 4th time in 5 days. 

Urquidy had a 5.29 ERA this season, while Heaney provided up 23 home runs on the year. These pitchers will have a difficult time keeping the base courses empty. 

We’ve seen the fireworks inbetween these 2 throughout the routine season. Look for another high-scoring affair in Game 4.

PICK: Over 9.5 runs scored by both groups integrated

Will Hill, a factor on the Bear’s Bets Podcast, hasactually been wagering on sports for over a years. He is a wagering expert who hasactually been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.