3 factors why the Astros’ sluggish start is worrying

The Houston Astros are just a winterseason eliminated from their seventh successive American League Championship Series look. But less than 2 weeks into the 2024 routine season, they currently appearance like a group that might battle to even make the playoffs.

While a sluggish start is absolutelynothing brand-new for their veteran core (see: 2017, 2019, 2020, 2023), the Astros’ 4-8 mark is their worst to open a season because 2016, which is likewise when the club last stoppedworking to reach the postseason. 

Still, face of the franchise José Altuve is revealing optimism about the state of the Astros, worrying that there is plenty of time for them to turn things around. While that’s normally real, a coupleof worrying patterns aren’t going to amazingly modification. 

Here’s a appearance at 3 secret factors for Houston’s underwhelming begin, and why they may mushroom into season-long concerns. 

1. The bullpen hasactually been bad

Houston’s bullpen was anticipated to be the finest in baseball after the club won the Josh Hader sweepstakes, finalizing the All-Star closer to a five-year, $95 million agreement this offseason. The mix of Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu was expected to be the most threatening back-end setofthree we’d see this year. Back in February, nevertheless, Pressly informed pressreporters he was amazed the Astros dropped him from closer to setup male after Hader signedupwith the club. Perhaps that was an early indicator of simply how south things would go.

Even after Tuesday’s 3.2 scoreless innings from the bullpen, Astros reducers sport a cumulative 4.95 ERA that ranks 22nd in MLB. The vaunted trio of Hader, Pressly and Abreu haveactually integrated to cough up 13 made runs, representing more than half of the bullpen’s overall (24). Hader is currently accountable for 2 losses while givingup 4 runs in 6 looks. Pressly appears totally unclear in the setup function and is permitting a lot of loud contact. With Framber Valdez landing on the hurt list Tuesday with elbow swelling, Justin Verlander not anticipated to launching till at least May and Luis García and Lance McCullers likewise opening the year on the IL, Houston’s relief corps will just be taxed additional — and its issues more glaring.

It was unexpected to see basic supervisor Dana Brown and the front workplace mainly neglect middle relief depth this winterseason provided how apparent a issue it was. The Astros lost reducers Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek to complimentary company before spendinglavishly on a closer when they currently had a excellent one (and an option alternative in Abreu). They plainly presumed that by including Hader, Pressly and Abreu might simply slide into alittle lower functions and the remaining innings might be gobbled up by the other reducers. It’s early, however that strategy has backfired hence far.

2. José Abreu is batting and punching .088.

The previous MVP is simply one piece of this magnificent offense, however with Martín Maldonado no longer in the nine-hole, Abreu sure looks like Houston’s finest prospect for an automated out. In the 2nd year of his three-year, $58.5 million pact with the Astros, the 37-year-old veryfirst baseman is when onceagain flailing at the plate. His sophisticated metrics are specifically disconcerting. Entering Tuesday, his anticipated punching portion (.158) and barrel rate (0.0) were in the veryfirst percentile, while he sported a -33 OPS+ and -0.5 fWAR. 

FanGraphs’ ZiPS figured Abreu would increase last year’s 86 wRC+ to 103, however he looks far from an average big-league player through his veryfirst 37 plate looks. He’s popping out in vital at-bats and hasactually been the Astros’ most regular lawbreaker of leaving males on base. Former supervisor Dusty Baker batted Abreu clean-up or 5th for most of 2023, regardlessof his hasahardtime. Amid this early ruthless stretch, brand-new skipper Joe Espada has dropped Abreu to the bottom of the lineup for the veryfirst time in his 11-year profession — he even pinch-hit for him in additional innings Tuesday night — while openly voicing his belief that the veteran slugger will bounce back. 

It’s endingupbeing harder to think that Abreu will, and there isn’t a appealing alternative in the company. It’s notlikely that backup veryfirst baseman Jon Singleton is the service. The Astros likewise puton’t have an apparent minor-league choice to promote. With Yordan Álvarez usually inhabiting the DH area and costs less time in left field, probably to minimize the threat of injury, there are less chances to even provide Abreu a break from the field. Simply put, the Astros are in a pickle with their decreasing veryfirst baseman. He has to carryout. They presently have no other alternatives. 

3. The American League hierarchy is in flux

For almost a years now, the Astros haveactually been accustomed to being the de facto finest group in the American League. For numerous years, there was barely any competitors, though the 2018 Red Sox were definitely an exception. Then last fall, an evenly-matched Rangers club emerged and rallied to getridof Houston on its home field in the ALCS en path to winning the World Series.

Thanks in big part to the Astros’ continual success and an offense that stays dominant, they’re still AL West favorites. Through Tuesday’s videogames, FanGraphs offers them a 51.8% opportunity of winning the department (the Rangers are at 21.4%). While a 4th straight AL West title is more than attainable for these Astros, the veryfirst 2 weeks of the season haveactually revealed that they’re moved down in the AL pecking order. The Yankees, Orioles and Rangers all came into the season with similar skill and are delightingin much muchbetter begins to the 2024 season. The Yankees, who currently took 4 videogames at Minute Maid Park to open the season, are an MLB-best 10-2 regardlessof Aaron Judge striking under .200 and Gerrit Cole on the IL. 

It’s still early April, and it’d be early to discountrate the Astros from turning it around quickly and looking more like the commanding club it’s been all these years. But it’d likewise be unreliable to call them the group to beat in the American League.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB author for FOX Sports. She formerly covered the Mets as a beat pressreporter for the New York Daily News. The child of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.