College Football National Championship odds: Michigan favorite to win it all

There’s a new betting favorite to win college football’s national championship, as the regular season came to an end Saturday.

Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines (12-0) ascended to the top of the oddsboard after beating Ohio State 30-24 in The Game on Saturday in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

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The Wolverines went to +185 (bet $10 to win $28.50 total) to win the College Football Playoff from +280.

This is the first time in school history that Michigan has started 12-0 in back-to-back seasons, according to FOX Sports Research.

Ohio State fell to 11-1 and the Buckeyes’ odds to capture the CFP tumbled to +6500 to win it all from +500.

The odds for 12-0 Georgia went from +230 to +200, but the two-time defending champion Bulldogs fell to the second betting favorite behind Michigan.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS *

Michigan Wolverines: +185 (bet $10 to win $28.50 total)

Georgia Bulldogs: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)

Oregon Ducks: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)

Alabama Crimson Tide: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)

Texas Longhorns: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)

Washington Huskies: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)

Florida State Seminoles: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total) 

Ohio State Buckeyes: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)

Iowa Hawkeyes: +100000 (bet $10 to win $10,010 total)

odds as of 11/26/2023

FOX Sports College Football Analyst RJ Young said Michigan posted a statement victory over Ohio State and justified its status to win the national title.

“This was the game for which we all wanted to see what Michigan was made of. And, frankly, so did the College Football Playoff selection committee, who started out their rankings with Ohio State at No. 1,” said Young, host of The Number One College Football Show. “Even going into this game, [the committee] had Ohio State at No. 2, Michigan at No. 3. Michigan shows up favored in this game, but the last time that Michigan showed up favored in this game, they got housed by Ohio State — that was some six years ago.”

FOX Sports College Football Analyst Joel Klatt broadcast the Buckeyes-Wolverines game with Gus Johnson and came away impressed, putting Michigan No. 1 in his rankings.

Klatt tweeted, “Incredible scene for The Game once again today …@UMichFootball is relentless, physical, and incredibly well coached.”

Young said the three-game win streak over the Buckeyes could be an omen for this season.

“This is the third consecutive win for Michigan over Ohio State … but importantly, the last time that Michigan won three consecutive against Ohio State, they won a national championship [1997].” 

Michigan will face 10-2 Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday (FOX and FOX Sports App).

There was also movement on the oddsboard that didn’t involve Big Ten squads.

The 12-0 Oregon Ducks moved from +650 to +500, landing them third on the odds list.

Another team that charged up the oddsboard is the 11-1 Texas Longhorns, who went from +1400 to +900.

The Alabama Crimson Tide’s odds lengthened to +900 from +750 after a thrilling 27-24 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and the Longhorns and Crimson Tide are now tied for the fourth-shortest odds to win the CFP.

The 12-0 Washington Huskies remain sixth on the odds list, but their odds tumbled from +1200 to +2000 after their last-second 24-21 win over Washington State.

Editor’s Note: Expert’s picks made prior to the start of the season

Insight via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

College football has over 130 teams, with 69 of those teams in the Power 5 conferences. With the wide array of options for winning a college football title, it should be difficult to pick winners each season. Quite the opposite is true.

Thanks to Bud Elliott of 247Sports, we know only 16 teams have a chance to win the title this season. Bud developed the Blue-Chip ratio, a formula that looks at the number of blue-chip prospects on each team. “Put simply, to win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA “Blue Chips”) than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.”  

Since 2011, every national champion has over 50% blue chips on the roster, with most exceeding 60%. 

With that in mind, I’ll give you two teams who can win the title. 

Georgia +215 (at time of pick)

There has not been a team that has won three straight college football championships since the players could fold their leather helmets into their back pockets after a game. 

After two championships, the only thing holding back Georgia from winning a third straight would be apathy, which I doubt happens with new players all over the field, and a slight talent drain. Georgia’s defense was historically good in 2021 and slightly worse in 2022, and now its lost most of those players to the NFL. 

Are the new crop of Georgia defenders as good? I’d guess they are, and we will see the same Georgia defense. 

On offense, UGA must replace Todd Monkin at offensive coordinator and Stetson Bennett at quarterback. On paper, new QB Carson Beck is more talented than Bennett, which could give it an upgrade at the position after two straight titles. Georgia’s schedule is a cakewalk, and its toughest game will likely be the SEC Championship Game. 

If the Bulldogs get there undefeated, they are in the playoff regardless of the result of that contest. As we saw in 2021, an SEC title game loss doesn’t mean much for the title run. 

Georgia is the best team in the country, so why not?

Michigan +800 (at time of pick)

I could easily pick Alabama here and would feel awesome with that selection. However, I will take the Wolverines and pray they figure out how to win a game once the new year begins. Michigan’s Blue-Chip ratio is well below that of Georgia, Clemson or even Alabama, but it has a formula that wins games. It beats people up at the line of scrimmage and mostly does not make mistakes.

J.J. McCarthy is talented at quarterback, Blake Corum returns at running back, and the offensive line is loaded with talent. 

While the veteran defense still needs to find that consistent pass rush it saw with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, the talent will be excellent again. I’m fine with sprinkling a few bucks on a team that made the playoff two years in a row.

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