The USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins face off in a Pac-12 college football battle between cross-town rivals.
The 9-1 Trojans come into the Week 12 matchup on a three-game winning streak that includes victories over Arizona, Cal and Colorado. The Utah Utes handed SC its only loss of the season.
The Bruins are 8-2 and are coming into this showdown after a shocking loss to unranked Arizona. The Wildcats defeated UCLA 34-28 in Week 11, handing the team its second loss of the year. Oregon was the first squad to beat UCLA this season in a game that ended 45-30 in favor of the Ducks.
Which of these rivals gets the big win in Week 12 — SC or UCLA?
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between USC and UCLA, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks (odds via FOX Bet).
No. 7 USC at No. 16 UCLA (8 p.m. ET Saturday)
Point spread: USC -1.5 (USC favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise UCLA covers)
Moneyline: USC -125 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $18 total); UCLA -105 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $19.52 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 75.5 points scored by both teams combined
Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
The Battle of Los Angeles.
This will be the biggest game in this rivalry since 2005 when both teams were ranked in the top 11 with a title game berth on the line for the Trojans. Similar to 2005, the Trojans could potentially be playing for a national championship; USC is ranked in the top six and needs to win out for a chance at a CFP berth. After an embarrassing loss to Arizona on Saturday, UCLA still has plenty to play for in this Victory Bell game. A win by the Bruins knocks their rival out of the playoff discussion while propelling the Bruins one game closer to a Pac-12 Championship Game appearance. The Bruins have not played in a Rose Bowl since 1998.
You need to excuse the Bruins’ performance on Saturday against Arizona when I discuss this game. It was an embarrassing loss and reeked of a team looking ahead to USC. Yes, it was disappointing, but it doesn’t have much weight on this weekend. UCLA will play to its full potential, and a Bruin team that does that is a Bruin team that will cover against ‘SC.
These teams are remarkably similar. USC’s offense ranks second in points per drive, while UCLA’s offense is sixth. USC’s defense ranks 88th in points per drive, and UCLA’s defense is 91st. The big difference in this game will be UCLA’s defense.
The Bruins do not allow big plays, but USC allows very quick scores. UCLA’s defense ranks second at limited offensive plays over 20 yards, and its general explosive play rate on defense ranks 42nd. Meanwhile, USC is 112th in explosive play rate and 101st in plays allowed over 20 yards. Because of this difference, I see UCLA winning this game.
If the Bruins can force a few field goals or turnovers on downs, their rushing attack will control this matchup. USC has seven conference wins against teams with a combined 14 wins in conference play. UCLA has beaten Utah and Washington in the Rose Bowl.
Blue and gold is ready for this cross-town battle.
PICK: UCLA (-105 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright
Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:
The eye-popping total has gone from 73.5 to 75.5 in a game between two teams that don’t play any defense.
USC gave up 43 to Utah, 37 to Arizona and 35 to Cal. Before you think that defenses will show up in this rivalry game, just know that UCLA scored 62 last year. The Bruins also posted 35 and 38 points the two years prior in losses.
USC could be the Pac-12’s last hope of having a College Football Playoff team. However, the Trojans’ best win was against unranked Oregon State; their one loss was by a point at Utah in a game they led for 59 minutes.
The last team with the ball probably wins this weekend in the Battle of LA. So the safe bet is the Over.
The Trojans win a very, very close one. The final score will be 39-38 or something wacky.
PICK: Over 75.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
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