The Cleveland Browns (2-4) play at the Baltimore Ravens (3-3) in a key NFL AFC North Division matchup Sunday. Two North teams are 3-3, the other two are 2-4.
The Ravens have dominated the Browns since the former Cleveland franchise moved southeast to Maryland for the 1996 season. The Ravens lead the all-time series 34-12, but the Browns won the most recent matchup in December 24-22.
Here’s everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Browns and Ravens — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert (with all NFL odds via FOX Bet).
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Browns at Ravens (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Point spread: Ravens -6.5 (Ravens favored to win by more than 6.5 points, otherwise Browns cover)
Moneyline: Ravens -303 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.30 total); Browns +220 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $32 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined
Pick via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
In Weeks 1-5, there was no offense more balanced and efficient on early downs than the Browns.
Their EPA/dropback was +0.14. That ranked No. 3.
Their EPA/rush was +0.10. That ranked No. 2.
They were the only team in the top 5 in both metrics.
And then, they met their old nemesis – Bill Belichick.
Belichick’s Patriots knew Jacoby Brissett well.
Belichick’s Patriots also knew this Browns offense quite well.
Last year, the Patriots held the Browns to seven points, winning in a landslide 45-7.
Should we have been surprised the game was a little closer, but still a dominant Patriots win, 38-15?
Perhaps not.
Against the Patriots last week, the Browns gained just -0.65 EPA/att on early down passes. That ranked dead last in the NFL. Their rushing was better, but not by much, recording only -0.10 EPA/att.
It was, by far, their worst performance of the season.
Does this mean the Browns offense is completely broken?
No, it does not. And the Ravens defense still needs to be on its toes because their last two opponents, the Giants and the Bengals, still don’t come close to this offense.
But Baltimore’s offense had yet another game they should have won but couldn’t seal the deal.
No team had more EPA/rush on early downs last week than the Ravens, at +0.32/att. And Baltimore was top-7 in EPA/pass on early downs as well.
But the Ravens missed the FG, settled for two FGs inside the Giants’ 16-yard-line, threw an interception that led to a touchdown and fumbled late to prevent a game-winning drive.
This should be an eruption spot for the Baltimore Ravens offense.
The Ravens just finished playing three top-10 defenses in the Bills, Patriots and Bengals.
Then they got the No. 30 defense in the Giants.
And despite playing their former DC, who knew everything there is to know about Lamar Jackson, the Ravens still converted 40% of their early downs into first downs, the highest rate in the NFL last week.
They just fell short in the red zone.
But now?
Now they go up against an even worse defense than the Giants.
Now they go up against the No. 31 Browns, who have not played anyone. Literally.
The Browns have played the NFL’s third-easiest schedule of offenses and still rank as the second-worst defense.
The Ravens offense is the best offense the Browns will have faced this year.
And they also have a terrible run defense (30th) which should help a Ravens offense that is finally getting support on the ground from its running backs.
Look at these splits from the Ravens RBs:
Week 1-4 yards before contact/rush: 1.2 (No. 17)
Week 5+ yards before contact/rush: 3.5 (No. 2)
Week 1-4 EPA/rush: -0.14 (No. 25)
Week 5+ EPA/rush: +0.16 (No. 2)
Whether it’s Kenyan Drake (119 rushing yards last week), J.K. Dobbins or both, the Ravens RBs should have a ton of success against this terrible run defense.
The Browns allow the most EPA/rush to opposing RBs of any team on the season and allow the second-most yards before contact per rush (2.2 yards).
Last week, the Browns simply tried to force the fourth-string rookie QB to beat them by loading the box with seven-plus defenders on 91% of the Patriots early downs.
It still didn’t work, and their pass defense was lit up for 309 yards while still giving up three rushing touchdowns.
It’s been that kind of year for this Browns defense – zero answers.
Despite playing terrible QBs.
Baker Mayfield
Mitchell Trubisky
Joe Flacco
Marcus Mariota
Bailey Zappe
And an injured Justin Herbert playing despite rib injections
Now? They have to try to stop Lamar Jackson. Finally, a top-flight QB who is fully healthy. Finally, a top-10 passing attack the Browns will have to deal with.
I don’t anticipate it going well for them.
PICK: Ravens -3.5 in the first half
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