There are countless ways to bet on Super Bowl odds, from the typical game wagers on the point spread, moneyline and total to the hundreds of prop bets on the board. Of all those options, which one stands alone in taking the most money?
At BetMGM, it’s the wager of an outright win by the short underdog Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night against the San Francisco 49ers.
“The Chiefs moneyline pick has been the most popular bet for the Super Bowl,” BetMGM trader Tristan Davis said Thursday, while noting he expects that to remain the case right through kickoff. “For sure, we may see some sharp stuff come through on the 49ers late. But Chiefs moneyline being the No. 1 bet won’t be changing.”
Here’s a look at BetMGM’s five most popular Super Bowl bets in terms of money wagered, along with what the book is rooting for Sunday.
The Short List
On Jan. 28, Kansas City opened +115 on BetMGM’s moneyline. Chiefs at +115 means a bet of $100 would profit $115 — for a total payout of $215 — if the Chiefs simply beat the 49ers. Within just a few minutes, the moneyline shorted to Kansas City even money.
The Chiefs have been stable at +110 on the moneyline since Jan. 30. Likewise, on the point spread, Kansas City has been a stable 2-point underdog since Jan. 30. But bettors are eschewing the point spread and taking the better price — and better payout — on the Chiefs to win.
Which is no surprise at all to Davis.
“It’s the price. You’re getting +110 for Patrick Mahomes, who has been there, done that, and is the better QB for the game itself. Bettors won’t be letting that opportunity go,” he said.
When combining both digital betting (online/mobile) and retail action, Kansas City is taking 70% of moneyline dollars at BetMGM.
That said, here are the top five Super Bowl bets:
- Chiefs moneyline, detailed above
- Travis Kelce MVP: The Chiefs tight end is always heavily bet in the player props market. Add in that this is the Super Bowl and that Kelce is dating insanely popular international pop star Taylor Swift, and it’s like adding rocket fuel to the gas tank. “He alone has 20% of the [money] for the market. He will be our worst outcome by far,” Davis said. Kelce is currently +1300 to win the MVP, meaning a $100 bet would profit $1,300.
- Travis Kelce To Score First Touchdown: Just rinse and repeat from the previous paragraph. Kelce is landing 23% of all money bet in the Player to Score the First TD market. He’s +600 to score the first TD on Sunday. “It’s fair to say that the Chiefs winning, with Kelce scoring first and winning MVP, it won’t be looking good for us,” Davis said.
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown: As you can see, it’s hard to overstate just how much money hinges on Kelce’s success against the 49ers. He’s a modest -115 in the Anytime TD market.
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown: The 49ers running back checks in as the fifth-most popular bet by money wagered at BetMGM. Davis noted that the Anytime TD market is actually running pretty close between McCaffrey, the -225 favorite and Kelce, the -115 third choice. “Together, they take up 40% of the [money] for us, with big and small bets. No surprise that these two are the most popular. They have dominated all season,” Davis said.
As you can see, a lot of Kelce.
Caesars Sports Vice President of Trading Craig Mucklow summed it up perfectly.
“The one player we are not a fan of is Travis Kelce. We’ll be sweating every time the ball goes near him,” Mucklow said.
Super Bowl MVP odds: Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce lead
Changing Needs
When the 49ers-Chiefs matchup was first set, BetMGM was rooting for Kansas City. That’s because the book had substantial Super Bowl futures liability to San Francisco.
However, with Kansas City continuing to take the lion’s share of tickets and money on both the spread and the moneyline, the tide has turned.
“It’s a slight cheer for the 49ers now,” Davis said, before outlining the most ideal scenario heading into Super Bowl weekend. “The Niners to win in a low-scoring game, with McCaffrey and Kelce not scoring, would be good.”
Obviously, the public betting masses aren’t in favor of that. They’re all in on big games from McCaffrey and Kelce, capped by a Chiefs victory.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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