Way-too-early 2024 NFL playoff predictions: Why Colts, Commanders will rise

The 2023 NFL season is officially over, which means it’s time to look ahead to next season. 

We don’t have a clear picture of what each team’s roster will look like when the 2024-25 season kicks off in September, with April’s upcoming draft and free agency still to come before then, but Colin Cowherd already has an inkling of which teams are poised to break out in 2024 like the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions did this past season.

He made some bold predictions for next season’s playoff picture on Friday’s edition of “The Herd.” Cowherd has six teams making the playoffs in 2024 that missed out in 2023, including a shocking NFC East winner and a just-as-surprising would-be contender in the AFC missing the playoffs entirely.

Check out his full way-too-early predictions below:

AFC

Division winners: Buffalo Bills (East), Cincinnati Bengals (North), Indianapolis Colts (South), Kansas City Chiefs (West)

Wild-card teams: Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers

Cowherd’s thoughts: “Houston doesn’t make it — [you’re saying], ‘What?’ Now they have to play with expectations. Their schedule is significantly harder. And oh, by the way, Anthony Richardson and Trevor Lawrence are both healthy again. I don’t think Houston bottoms out but [instead] has a sophomore slump. Remember, per season over the last decade, six new teams make the playoffs, so I went through it and ended up with six. Look at the Texans’ opponents, there [are] some tough ones. Cowboys on the road, Chiefs on the road, Packers — who I think are excellent — on the road. Home games, well, good luck. The Lions are really good, Ravens are really good, Bills and Dolphins score a lot of points. That’s a tough schedule for the Texans and they are still in a rebuild. I like Houston, I just think they pull back by a game or two.”

“Shocker, I’m taking the best quarterbacks overwhelmingly. The Bills have won their division for four straight years. The Bengals have had double-digit wins each year [when] Joe Burrow was healthy and led their division before he got hurt last year. I think they’ll rebound. I think [Colts coach] Shane Steichen is as good a young offensive coach as the league has had in years. They’ve got $60 million in cap space, and I like a lot of their young players. They almost got to the playoffs with Gardner Minshew. Richardson getting hurt was, in a weird way, a break because now he could learn from the sidelines. I have talked to [Colts general manager] Chris Ballard — they love that kid. And then I’ll take Patrick Mahomes.

“My wild-card teams are, by quarterback, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. The Jaguars started 8-3 before Lawrence got hurt. They also hired a defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, from Atlanta, who did the best job running Atlanta’s defense in a long time. The Chargers, by the way, lost seven games by three points or fewer, even with [former head coach] Brandon Staley. Now [new coach Jim] Harbaugh gets his star quarterback. Nothing against Miami, but Tua Tagovailoa was completely healthy this year. I don’t think that’s going to happen again next year. I also still don’t love their offensive line.”

NFC

Division winners: Washington Commanders (East), Green Bay Packers (North), Atlanta Falcons (South), Los Angeles Rams (West)

Wild-card teams: Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers

Cowherd’s thoughts: “Why the Commanders? They have $75 million in cap space, and I love new coach Dan Quinn and [offensive coordinator] Kliff Kingsbury. I think the Eagles and Cowboys, because of age and drama, are vulnerable. We have a surprise team every year in the league. I think the Commanders get North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, and I think Drake Maye is like Justin Herbert. He played in a simple college offense and will be better than people think immediately. The guy that Herbert was [in 2020], that C.J. Stroud was [in 2023], I think Maye is that guy this year.”

“I love the Packers’ young offensive personnel. They’re kids, and they went into Dallas and hammered the Cowboys [in the playoffs]. I thought Matt LaFleur did his best job as a head coach. I think the Falcons land Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins. They have a top-five offensive line and nice skill-position pieces. I think they get a veteran quarterback in there for a couple of years and Atlanta wins kind of a weak division. 

“The Rams are the second-youngest team that made the playoffs last year besides the Packers. They have, I think, one of the great coaches in football in Sean McVay, and they’ve got 11 draft picks and about $30 million in cap space. I think the Rams are on the Super Bowl bubble potentially. Then I have the Cowboys, Lions and 49ers — all with great offensive head coaches — getting into the playoffs again.”

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