World Cup 2022 odds: How to bet United States vs. Netherlands

The United States Men’s national team (USMNT) advanced to the knockout round of the 2022 World Cup with a thrilling 1-0 win over Iran on Tuesday, setting up a date with Group A winner Netherlands at 9 a.m. ET Saturday on FOX. 

This marks the third straight World Cup in which the USMNT has participated where it has advanced out of the group stage. However, the Stars and Stripes lost their previous two matches in the Round of 16. The United States fell 2-1 to Ghana after extra time in 2010 and 2-1 to Belgium after extra time in 2014 in the game that immortalized Tim Howard in U.S. soccer lore as the goalkeeper notched a World Cup record 16 saves against Belgium’s relentless attack.

Related: USMNT finding identity as contender at just the right time

The United States has not won a knockout stage match in the men’s World Cup since 2002 when Landon Donovan helped lead the USMNT to a 2-0 (or, as famously nicknamed, “Dos A Cero”) win over archrival Mexico.

Like the USMNT, the Netherlands did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup. However, the Dutch have had a much greater history of success in the knockout stage, reaching the final in 2010 and the semifinal in 2014. 

The United States is also dealing with injuries to key forwards Christian Pulisic and Josh Sargent. Pulisic, who suffered a pelvic contusion when scoring the winning goal vs. Iran, has insisted both publicly and to his teammates that he will be available Saturday.

Related: U.S. hero Christian Pulisic vows ‘I’ll be ready on Saturday’

Here is how to bet the USA-Netherlands match, from the moneyline, draw odds, Over/Under total odds and expert pick (with odds via FOX Bet).

USA vs. Netherlands (10 a.m. ET Saturday, December 3, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

The United States was as high as +400 when this line came out, but early money came in on the Americans. This isn’t the same caliber Netherlands team that finished in third place at the 2014 World Cup. Oranje failed to qualify in 2018, and then at Euro 2020 (which was played in 2021 due to Covid), the Dutch were knocked out in the Round of 16 by the Czech Republic. 

But what the Netherlands possesses — that the USMNT does not — are attackers that can find the back of the net. 23-year-old budding star Cody Gakpo, who is 6-foot-4, scored in all three group stage games. It will be interesting to see if Gregg Berhalter sticks with Cameron Carter-Vickers as the starter at center back or shifts back to Walker Zimmerman, who struggled at times in the first two games but was a valuable late sub against Iran.

Netherlands striker Memphis Depay has not been fully healthy due to a hamstring injury but did start in game three against Qatar. He will obviously be needed against a U.S. defense that has not given up a goal in the run of play and only one goal in total (Gareth Bale’s penalty kick for Wales in the group stage opener). Depay has 42 goals for the Netherlands national team. The combination of Depay and Gakpo will be a handful for the US.

As much of a sweat as the final 20 minutes against Iran were for U.S. soccer fans, the game was total domination. Expected goal (xG) stats evaluate scoring chances, and the United States registered a 1.42 in that match to a woeful .62 for Iran. By comparison, the USMNT played mighty England to a draw on the scoreboard and nearly a draw in xG — .89 to .87.

The health of Christian Pulisic is obviously paramount. USA should have some attacking opportunities against the Netherlands, which plays just three defenders. Of course, the defenders play at Manchester City (Nathan Ake), Liverpool (Virgil Van Dijk) and Ajax (Jurrien Timber), the highest level of soccer in Europe. No USMNT player is on any of those rosters.

The biggest edge for the USMNT is in the midfield, and two players to watch are Weston McKennie and Yunus Musah, trailing on the attack. Netherlands has looked lethargic at times creating against Senegal, with no goals in the first 80 minutes of that match, and Ecuador, where the Dutch were outshot 15-2 but tied 1-1.

The last time the USMNT made the knockout round, in 2014, they were underdogs against Belgium. It was 0-0 after 90 minutes — and go look up the miss by Chris Wondoloski late in the game if you want to cry. USA lost 2-1 in extra time, but this USMNT is vastly superior to that one. Given the form of both teams through three games, a United States upset win would not shock me. 

I do anticipate both teams scoring, and if you want to take a flyer, a United States win in overtime is worth a sprinkle.

PICK: Both teams to score (+105 at FOX Bet)

PICK: USMNT to win in overtime (+1800 at FOX Bet)

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