March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) on Monday closed up +147 (+3.50%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed up +73 (+2.43%).
Cocoa prices have higher on Monday, after the recent 2-week plunge pushed NY cocoa last Friday down to a 2-year nearest-futures low and London cocoa down to a 2.25-year nearest-futures low.
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Cocoa prices on Monday moved higher on dollar weakness. Also, West African producers are holding back supplies due to low prices. Monday’s cumulative data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.20 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through January 25, 2026), down -3.2% from 1.24 MMT in the same period a year ago. The Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer.
Also, ample supplies are weighing on cocoa prices after the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported last Friday that 2024/25 global cocoa stocks rose +4.2% y/y to 1.1 MMT.
Demand concerns have recently hammered cocoa prices as consumers continue to balk at the high price of chocolate. On Wednesday, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a -22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30, citing “negative market demand and a prioritization of volume toward higher-return segments within cocoa.”
Grinding reports also showed weak demand. On December 15, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings fell -8.3% y/y to 304,470 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -2.9% y/y and the lowest for a Q4 in 12 years. On December 16, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q4 Asian cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y/y to 197,022 MT. Also, the Nation