ANALYSIS — Halfway through the 2026 midterm cycle, the fight for the House is remarkably stable, and that’s good news for Democrats’ chances of winning the majority.
Republican efforts to pad their majority through mid-decade redistricting haven’t been as successful as projected thus far, and President Donald Trump’s first year of his second term hasn’t been as popular as Republicans had expected.
Nearly 90 years of history is on Democrats’ side. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, and the fewest number of seats lost in those cycles was four (1962) and five (1986).
This cycle, Democrats, on paper, need to flip three seats for the majority, but redistricting could push that number higher. Sweeping victories around the country last week have emboldened Democrats and showed that the party could be on the march in House districts beyond the Toss-up races.
Same size battlefield
Over the past year, neither the size nor the shape of the House battlefield has fundamentally changed. That’s sobering news for Republicans, who had hoped to reshape the midterm terrain this year to prepare for a potential storm next year.
Back in early March, when Inside Elections released its first set of race ratings, the races rated Solid for either party were nearly even (180 for Republicans and 179 for Democrats). Sixty-four races were seen as competitive (Likely/Lean/Tilt/Toss-up), with Ohio’s 15 seats unrated as we awaited a new map.
When the Likely/Lean/Tilt races were allotted to each party, Democrats were favored in 207 seats compared with 203 for Republicans. It was a remarkably symmetric battlefield, with both parties short of, but within reach of, the 218 seats necessary for a majority.
The current House battlefield isn’t dramatically different. There are more seats rated as Solid for Republicans than Democrats (192 to 180), but the seat count is more even when accounting for the 63 competitive races. Republicans have just a 213-210 advantage when allotting the Likely/Lean/Tilt races, with a dozen Toss-ups left over.
Republicans had hoped to reconfigure the battlefield through an onslaught of mid-decade redistricting, but Democrats have held their own thus far.
A changed environment
One thing that has changed is the national political environment. Back in early March, Trump’s job rating was even (48 percent approve vs. 47 percent disapprove), according to Nate Silver’s national average. Eight months later, that has slipped considerably to 54 percent disapproval compared with just 42 percent approval.
A deeper dive into the president’s numbers doesn’t get any better for Republicans. Trump’s job rating is trending the way it was at this point during his first term, which eventually led to a Democratic net gain of 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms.
Trump also has a negative job rating on every major issue, including immigration (-3 points), jobs and the economy (-15 points), health care (-14 points), trade (-16 points) and inflation/cost of living (-24 points), according to G. Elliott Morris, formerly of FiveThirtyEight.
Despite the dramatic confidence exuded by Trump and congressional Republicans in the aftermath of the 2024 elections, the ingredients for a brutal set of midterms for the GOP can already be found. We may have even gotten a glimpse of that last week.
While not a direct referendum, Trump’s poor standing contributed to big Democratic victories across the country. Yes, Democratic candidates won in Democra