Earlier this week, Brent crude slipped below $60 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate dipped to $55, under the combined weight of a projected supply overhang and media reports claiming the United States and Russia were close to a peace deal for Ukraine. Even a blockade on sanctioned tankers carrying Venezuelan crude ordered by President Trump did not do much for prices. The question now is just how low Brent and WTI could sink from here.

President Trump said this week that a peace deal for Ukraine is closer than ever. However, this may be just an expression of optimism because recent developments in the negotiations process suggest Russia is rather unwilling to make any concessions, especially territorial ones while the European backers of the current Ukrainian government have their own plan that, observers note, crosses all of Russia’s red lines, including territorial concessions, the size of the Ukrainian army and, not least, the presence of European troops in the Ukraine as a peacekeeping force, which from Russia’s perspective is similar to the Ukraine joining NATO.

In other words, a peace deal is far from certain, but this has not prevented the latest media updates on the issue from prompting traders to sell oil, bringing benchmark prices to the lowest in months. Interestingly, this is happening despite the fact that Russian oil exports have remained relatively stable, even after the latest U.S. sanctions. As ING analysts noted in a recent update, “Russian seaborne oil exports have held up well since the imposition of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil,” yet “this oil is still struggling to find buyers. The result is a growing volume of Russian oil at sea.”

Related: Christmas Day Gasoline Prices Set To Fall To Covid-Era Levels

Meanwhile, JP Morgan has reiterated its expectation of an oversupplied market, saying in a recent note that “At the risk of flogging a very dead horse, our message to the market has remained consistent since June 2023. While demand is robust, supply is simply too abundant.” The Wall Street major is not alone in this perception. Most analysts expect lower prices in 2026.

Last month, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said they expected Brent crude to average $56 per barrel in 2026, with West Texas Intermediate at $52, citing, once again, an oversupplied market. Yet it was Goldman again that quickly adjusted its oil demand growth outlook following the International Energy Agency’s revision of peak oil demand projections. In the update, made i

Earlier this week, Brent crude slipped below $60 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate dipped to $55, under the combined weight of a projected supply overhang and media reports claiming the United States and Russia were close to a peace deal for Ukraine. Even a blockade on sanctioned tankers carrying Venezuelan crude ordered by President Trump did not do much for prices. The question now is just how low Brent and WTI could sink from here.

President Trump said this week that a peace deal for Ukraine is closer than ever. However, this may be just an expression of optimism because recent developments in the negotiations process suggest Russia is rather unwilling to make any concessions, especially territorial ones while the European backers of the current Ukrainian government have their own plan that, observers note, crosses all of Russia’s red lines, including territorial concessions, the size of the Ukrainian army and, not least, the presence of European troops in the Ukraine as a peacekeeping force, which from Russia’s perspective is similar to the Ukraine joining NATO.

In other words, a peace deal is far from certain, but this has not prevented the latest media updates on the issue from prompting traders to sell oil, bringing benchmark prices to the lowest in months. Interestingly, this is happening despite the fact that Russian oil exports have remained relatively stable, even after the latest U.S. sanctions. As ING analysts noted in a recent update, “Russian seaborne oil exports have held up well since the imposition of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil,” yet “this oil is still struggling to find buyers. The result is a growing volume of Russian oil at sea.”

Related: Christmas Day Gasoline Prices Set To Fall To Covid-Era Levels

Meanwhile, JP Morgan has reiterated its expectation of an oversupplied market, saying in a recent note that “At the risk of flogging a very dead horse, our message to the market has remained consistent since June 2023. While demand is robust, supply is simply too abundant.” The Wall Street major is not alone in this perception. Most analysts expect lower prices in 2026.

Last month, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said they expected Brent crude to average $56 per barrel in 2026, with West Texas Intermediate at $52, citing, once again, an oversupplied market. Yet it was Goldman again that quickly adjusted its oil demand growth outlook following the International Energy Agency’s revision of peak oil demand projections. In the update, made i