Topline
Democratic New York State assemblymember Zohran Mamdani’s odds of winning the New York City mayoral race reached nearly 95% in multiple betting markets Tuesday, hours before polls close on the race between him, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curits Sliwa.
Betting odds favored Mamdani by a large margin hours before polls closed. (Photo by LEONARDO MUNOZ/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Timeline
5: 30 p.m. ESTMamdani’s odds of victory reached 93% on prediction market Kalshi and as high as 94.6% on Polymarket on Tuesday afternoon.
3 p.m. ESTCuomo’s odds were at 7% on Kalshi and 5.5% on Polymarket around the same time, while Sliwa’s odds of winning were around 1% on both betting sites.
3 p.m. ESTVoter turnout in New York City reached over 1.4 million, the city’s highest mayoral election turnout since 2001, when Republican Michael Bloomberg defeated Democrat Mark Green in a race that garnered 1.5 million votes.
6 a.m. ESTVoter turnout in New York City reached over 1.4 million, the city’s highest mayoral election turnout since 2001, when Republican Michael Bloomberg defeated Democrat Mark Green in a race that garnered 1.5 million votes.
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What Billionaires Have Gotten Involved In New York City’s Election?
At least 26 billionaires have sunk donations into the mayoral election, with $22 million worth of funds going to groups opposing Mamdani. Bloomberg donated $8.3 million to the Fix the City super PAC, which backs Cuomo and also received a donation from Airbnb cofounder Joseph Gebbia. The Lauder family also donated to Fix the City, dishing out $2.6 million to the super PAC and anti-Mamdani group Sensible City. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman put up $1.75 million to Fix the City and Defend NYC.
What Has Trump Vowed To Do If Mamdani Wins?
Trump urged voters to back Cuomo, a former Democratic candidate running as an independent, a day before polls closed, saying he would rather see a Democrat win the election than a “communist with no experience,” referring to Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Trump, who was born and raised in New York City, told “60 Minutes” days prior to the election it would be “hard” to provide federal money for the city because “if you have a communist running New York, all you’re doing is wasting the money you’re sending there.” The president reiterated the idea Monday, saying in a Truth Social post “it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required” to New York City if Mamdani wins.
What Has Wall Street Said?
Wall Street has expressed concern about a Mamdani victory, with Dean Lyulkin, CEO of private investment firm Cardiff, telling Reuters he was viewing it as a risk in 2026. He added, “Actual policy often turns out much more benign than campaign rhetoric, but if other major cities follow this pattern, markets may start pricing in more tax and regulatory risks.” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, also