Liquefied natural gas (LNG) immediately became the world’s key emergency energy supply when Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Unlike oil or gas transported through pipelines, LNG does not require vast expense and years of building a complex infrastructure before it is ready to transport. On the contrary, it can be bought quickly and reliably either through short- or long-term contracts or in the spot market and then shipped anywhere within a matter of days. In the event of further major conflicts breaking out in the coming years as many expect, LNG’s importance will only increase further, as existing oil and gas land transportation routes involving Russia and China are unlikely to remain functional for long. Even without such a conflict, global demand for LNG is projected to increase by more than 50% by 2040, according to Shell. Before the U.S. became the world’s biggest exporter of LNG at the end of last year, Qatar had long held that position, only occasionally relinquishing the top spot to Australia. As it stands now, Qatar forecasts that it will more than double its current 77 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) production to 160 mtpa by 2030. By that time, the Emirate will account for at least 40% of all new LNG supplies across the globe. This makes it even more crucial to the U.S. and its allies and to China and its alliance.
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Prior to 2022’s invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the pendulum of superpower influence in Qatar had swung in China’s favour. Information received around the time by OilPrice.com from impeccable security sources indicated that China had been broadly told by Russia of its plans for a ‘large-scale special operation’ in Ukraine months before it happened, not just prior to the 4 February 2022 start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, as many reports have it. This tallies with the commencement of multiple long-term deals for huge LNG supplies by China in March 2021, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The first was the signing of a 10-year purchase and sales agreement by the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and Qatar Petroleum (QP) for 2 million mtpa of LNG. December 2021 saw another major long-term contract for Qatar to supply China with LNG, on that occasion a deal between QatarEnergy and Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co for 1 million mtpa of LNG, starting in 2024 and ending in 2034, although it could be extended. And further deals followed aimed not only at safeguarding China from any immediate energy supply shocks in the event that Russian gas supplies were sanctioned after it invaded Ukraine but also at depriving the West of access to these Qatari LNG supplies into the bargain. It was little wonder, then, that both China and Russia were bullish enough about Moscow’s prospects before it launched its ‘special operation’ against Ukraine – and Beijing’s ability to benefit from it – that they issued a very carefully worded and equally carefully timed joint statement that their partnership had “no limits”. In retrospect, many commentators highlight this as the green light for Putin to go ahead with his plans for invading Ukraine. In fact, Beijing had signalled to Putin around a year before that it had no object