We annoyingly had to wait an extra day to get here this season but it’s finally March!
The turn of the calendar signals the beginning of the best month in basketball. And if you’re a bettor, it’s one of the best months of the year period.
But how do you know which teams to bet on if you haven’t been paying attention to college hoops all year? Fortunately for you, we’ve made it as easy as possible.
It turns out there are only three key things you need to know to make the most informed wagers. Does this make them guaranteed to cash? Of course not, but the law of averages favors the teams who fit these categories.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The transfer portal has changed college basketball, but when it comes to March Madness, familiarity still wins out.
For The Win’s Bryan Kalbrosky dug into this last March and found the stats are pretty clear:
“Since KenPom began tracking the data in 2007, all but one of the teams that have won the men’s tournament have had a continuity rating of at least 40.0 percent. The average continuity rating of a winner in the men’s tournament is 59.9 percent.”
| Year | School | Continuity % |
| 2023 | UConn | 32.8 |
| 2022 | Kansas | 70.4 |
| 2021 | Baylor | 66.9 |
| 2019 | Virginia | 60.2 |
| 2018 | Villanova | 55.9 |
| 2017 | North Carolina | 64.4 |
| 2016 | Villanova | 58.0 |
| 2015 | Duke | 38.1 |
| 2014 | UConn | 69.6 |
| 2013 | Louisville | 55.3 |
So which top teams stand out in this category this year?
Purdue (70.9%), Florida Atlantic (82.6%), Wisconsin (72.3%), Marquette (80.8%), Michigan State (68.2%), Duke (65.1%), BYU (64.4%) and Creighton (61.7%).
Each of those teams also rank inside
the Top 40 on KenPom.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
You may be familiar with the concept of a dagger shot in basketball games. Let’s instead focus on Kill Shots. This stat comes from EvanMiya and it’s actually not all that complicated.
A Kill Shot is defined as an uninterrupted scoring run of 10 points or more. In March, when big scoring runs are quite literally the difference between advancing and sudden death, knowing which teams are the best at tallying Kill Shots — and which are the best at avoiding them — can make all the difference.
These teams have the best Kill Shot average per game as of March 1:
- Houston (1.07)
- Gonzaga (1.04)
- James Madison (1.00)
- UConn (1.00)
- Youngstown State (0.96)
- Arizona (0.96)
- UC San Diego (0.96)
- Saint Mary’s (0.93)
- Marquette (0.93)
- Auburn (0.93)
- Iowa State (0.93)
And these teams are the best at avoiding Kill Shots per game:
- Utah State (0.08)
- Michigan State (0.11)
- SMU (0.11)
- Pitt (0.14)
- San Francisco (0.14)
- Gonzaga (0.15)
- San Diego State (0.15)
- Boise State (0.15)
- Tennessee (0.18)
- Duke (0.18)
- Wisconsin (0.18)
- Washington State (0.18)
- Oklahoma (0.18)
- Memphis (0.18)
(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
It sounds silly b