The 2023 NFL regular season is over. For 18 teams, that means the 2024 offseason has begun — and for a handful of them, so has the search for a new head coach.
This fall was a brutal one for struggling coaches. Three were set off on an ice floe in the midst of the season, relieved of their duties while games were still going on in an effort to stop their flaws from infecting their teams. They ranged from the revered (Frank Reich) to the reviled (Josh McDaniels) to the impossible to read (Brandon Staley).
That led us to January 8; the day after Week 18 informally known as Black Monday. More coaching shakeups are on the way. Here’s everyone that’s been fired, going from most recent (Ron Rivera and then Arthur Smith, who was relieved of his duties at 12: 01 to kick off the day) to the first man out (Reich).
The Tennesseean
Seasons with the team: Six
Record: 54-45
Playoff wins: Two
The Titans were untenable. A new era waited on the horizon. It will not include Vrabel.
Tennessee surged beyond expectations thanks to the bruising runs of Derrick Henry, unexpectedly consistent and efficient play of Ryan Tannehill and a defense that was occasionally competent. But Henry slogged through the worst season of his career and is a free agent. Tannehill’s play fell off a cliff before being replaced by Will Levis. He’s also a free agent. That defense ranked fifth-worst when it came to expected points added (EPA) allowed per play.
via rbsdm.com and the author
These forces combined to make Vrabel 6-18 in his final 24 games, including a collapse from 7-3 to 7-10 to wrap up 2022. With the personnel behind his surprising rise on the way out, ownership decided it was time for a fresh start.
What the new coach will inherit: A rebuild whose timing will ideally coincide with the Titans’ new, mixed-use residential-looking stadium. Levis has potential and will win fans over behind his philosophy of running face first into every tackle, but he faced predictable struggles as a rookie passer and is far from a sure thing. The offense around him has one reliable contributor in the passing game and it’s a 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins.
The defense is similarly barren. Roger McCreary took steps toward being a reliable cornerback, but concerns linger throughout the rest of the secondary (Eric Garror might be a useful slot corner, but his sample size is small). Harold Landry returned from injury for a 10.5-sack season and Jeffrey Simmons continues to be a wrecking ball. Other than that there are few bright spots on which a new coach can rely.
But hey, Tennessee’s estimated $64 million in effective salary cap space in 2024 is tops in the NFL, per Over the Cap. That’s something!
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Seasons with the team: Four
Record: 26-40-1
Playoff wins: 0
This was inevitable. Rivera was a sigil of professionalism in Washington, the man dressed in a suit amidst a front office operated by clowns in the Dan Snyder era. But Josh Harris assumed ownership of the team last summer, putting pressure on the well-regarded head coach to win with a depleted roster in order to keep his job.
That didn’t happen. The Commanders finished the season with eight straight losses, sealing Rivera’s fate but offering an appealing silver lining for whomever takes over. Trade deadline deals that shipped out Montez Sweat and Chase Young have left Washington flush with draft capital for 2024. Thanks in no small part to Rivera’s dedication to quarterbacking disaster Sam Howell (-62 expected points added in that eight game losing streak), that includes the No. 2 overall pick in a draft that features two blue chip passers.
Rivera is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year. He won’t be judged harshly for taking up the challenge of corraling the Commanders and failing. His best quarterback in those four losing seasons was, arguably, Jacoby Brissett. Another job will be waiting on the horizon if he wants it, though maybe not in 2024. Or he can head to a pregame show somewhere and lend expert analysis. Either way, Riverboat Ron will be fine.
What the new coach will inherit: Potential and hope. We don’t know if Harris is a good owner or not, but we know he’ll be better than Dan Snyder simply because he is not Dan Snyder. Rivera’s successor gets a clean slate and the opportunity to build a roster in his image. The Commanders have the second overall pick and four selections in rounds two and three. They also have an estimated $78.8 million in salary cap space, per Over the Cap — most in the NFL so far.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Seasons with the team: Three
Record: 21-30
Playoff wins: 0
The Falcons wasted no time offloading Smith, no doubt infuriating any bettors that had Ron Rivera as a heavy favorite in the “next coach fired” sweepstakes. It was barely Black Monday in the Eastern time zone when news broke that Smith wouldn’t get a fourth year to try and turn Atlanta’s fortunes around.
The #Falcons fired coach Arthur Smith, per sources. pic.twitter.com/6HYKkuXIPF
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 8, 2024
Smith was supposed to bring a creative counter-culture mindset to the Falcons’ offense after helping revive Ryan Tannehill’s career and building a run-heavy attack in a pass-first NFL as offensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans. Instead, his units remained stuck in neutral despite a growing cache of skill players who were selected with top 10 draft picks. This 2023 team had Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson in the lineup, but since their quarterbacks were either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke, Atlanta only ranked 26th in points scored coming into Week 18.
Smith spent his final week as the team’s head coach getting whooped by the rival New Orleans Saints, then getting red-faced when Jameis Winston overrode his coach’s decision to kneel-out a win and handed the ball off for a touchdown out of the victory formation late in a 48-17 defeat.
Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen have a postgame chat 😳 pic.twitter.com/s469d2OcWq
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 7, 2024
This is, ultimately, Smith’s legacy. A bunch of bluster and expectations without follow through. He went 21-30 in three seasons with the Falcons, failing to a tidy 7-10 record each season despite a soft schedule and an entirely winnable NFC South the last two years. Whatever magic he’d conjured in Nashville failed him in Atlanta; now he’s the first victim of Black Friday 2024
What the new coach will inherit: Lots of good players! The veteran defense may lose steam, but was the best in the NFL against the run this season. Pitts, Robinson and London remain on rookie contracts. There’s a decent array of veteran quarterbacks who could step into a starting role and yet another top 10 draft pick could land a passer like Jayden Daniels or Michael