With a week until the College Football Playoff championship game is played between Notre Dame and Ohio State, it’s interesting to see how experts see the game playing out.
Instead of an expert, ESPN released a data-driven handicapping of the 2025 title game. The SP+ projection compiled by Bill Connelly (subscription required) is not favorable for the Irish. It has them losing to the Buckeyes, 27.6-21.7.
It seems like it will be a tight game. Both teams have a top-seven defense: Notre Dame is seventh and Ohio State is first. Offensively, the Buckeyes are the metric’s third best, while the Irish are sixth.
By all accounts, it an elite matchup between the two Midwest schools, but you can question some of the data. Ole Miss and Alabama were the second- and third-ranked teams, but neither made the playoffs.
This is a great reason the game isn’t played on paper.
Notre Dame football coach Marcus Freeman celebrates at the 90th annual Sun Bow