Week 16 presented some must-win games for teams across the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals saw their playoff hopes evaporate against Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers, marking their fourth loss in the last five weeks. The Los Angeles Rams firmed up their spot atop the NFC West with a comeback win over the increasingly hopeless New York Jets. The Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals all got victories that kept their slim playoff hopes alive.
So what can we glean from Week 16 as the postseason picture begins to come into focus? Well, Joe Burrow is having the best MVP season from a player with almost no chance to be MVP, the Detroit Lions are baffling in the best possible way and New York’s quarterback curse is taking root in other NFL franchises in unexpected ways.
What does that all mean? Let’s talk about Sunday’s action.
[Please bear with me for any Twitter embed issues. Our editing software has become a whole problem on that front the past couple weeks. Rest assured, if there’s a play alluded to in the text it’s worth clicking through to see if it didn’t make it into the article itself.]
1. The post Kirk Cousins Atlanta Falcons couldn’t have been clearer about their intentions
Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Michael Penix emerged from his first NFL start with a win. Granted, it was over the New York Giants so it barely counts. Still, his arm strength and mobility from the pocket are a boon for a Falcons offense that had been severely limited by Cousins’s fading athleticism.
From Michael Penix Jr. did everything the Falcons couldn’t get from Kirk Cousins:
Penix wasn’t perfect, but he soared over a nearly subterranean bar against an overmatched opponent.
Play-action, layered throws from Michael Penix Jr. are what the #Falcons fell in love with throughout the predraft process… https://t.co/GplisvODXe pic.twitter.com/e45KQvNxJJ
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) December 22, 2024
The Falcons didn’t reinvent their playbook around Penix. The shotgun snaps remained. He wasn’t given a directive to cut and run when pressured like fellow rookie Caleb Williams was given after Thomas Brown took over as the Chicago Bears’ interim offensive coordinator. He stood in the pocket and delivered clean passes through static, zipping the ball downfield on his best reads.
Michael Penix is ripping the ball.
Slow start but he had settled in and his connecting with Darnell Mooney. #Falcons pic.twitter.com/shMHdmX3SI
— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) December 22, 2024
Cousins’s lack of mobility led to less time in the pocket, even against defenses that blitzed him less than ever (because they knew they just needed one guy to breach the pocket to create a problem). But when third-and-long situations made it easy and obvious to bring an extra pass rusher or two, things fell apart.
Cousins’s expected points added (EPA) per dropback dropped from neutral to negative when blitzed. In the five-game stretch that effectively closed the books on his Atlanta tenure, the Falcons converted 23 of 67 third downs — a 34.3 percent conversion rate roughly on par with the New England Patriots’ woeful offense this fall (fourth-worst in the NFL).
Penix, on the other hand, showed more comfort in the face of pressure.
3rd downs aren’t scary anymore pic.twitter.com/7FrxcT9G0A
— Tre’Shon (@tre3shon) December 22, 2024
Granted, the lift was light. The opponent was Drew Lock and the New York Giants. Their 0.161 EPA/play allowed on dropbacks is fourth worst in the NFL. Ultimately, the box score will suggest Penix wasn’t much of an upgrade over the veteran he’s chasing out of Georgia. He finished with 18 completions on 27 attempts for 202 yards. He didn’t throw a single touchdown.
This fails to reflect his impact. Penix was stung by drops and pressure early — the kind of influence that could have derailed his debut. He didn’t panic. He ran when asked. He hung in the pocket when the play called for it. He threw an interception that aggressively was not his fault.
Juggled and picked off by the Giants at the goal line!
📺: #NYGvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/PdRfXIGHCa— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Penix made play action dropbacks look effortless instead of painful. He brought designed rollouts back to the playbook. He gave Atlanta an emotion other than anxiety on out-breaking routes to the sideline. He helped convert eight of 14 third down opportunities (57 percent).
He completed five of eight throws that traveled at least 10 yards downfield. Cousins, comparatively, had completed only 52 percent of such throws this season.
Read the full breakdown here.
2. Jalen Hurts proved his value to the Philadelphia Eagles (by getting hurt)
Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Jalen Hurts left Sunday’s showdown with the Washington Commanders in the first quarter with a head injury. At the time, it didn’t seem like it would have too dramatic an impact on the rest of the game.
Kenny Pickett slung a quick-slate touchdown pass to A.J. Brown soon after. After 10 minutes of game time, Philadelphia led 14-0 and outgained its division rival 106 yards to eight.
Then, the world got to see why the Pittsburgh Steelers were eager to get off Kenny Pickett’s dilapidated roller coaster after just two seasons in order to roll the dice on a faded Russell Wilson this offseason.
Needed that 😤
📺 #PHIvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/zhj6VKfCld
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2024
Pickett’s interception was an inflection point. The former first round pick hadn’t been magically fixed by backing up Hurts or playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. He remained a quarterback who struggles with reads and pressure. Behold as the third-year passer stares down his intended target on the left side of the field with such dedication that he completely blanks red death crashing down upon him to the right.
YEAH TAE @dantefowler
📺 FOX | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/6DtsYF8EzZ
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2024
Indeed, Pickett’s best plays came when he targeted A.J. Brown and hoped for the best. The veteran wideout was shadowed by former All-Pro Marshon Lattimore all afternoon. He went deep into his bag of tricks to ensure big gains on balls that vacillated between under- and over-thrown all afternoon.
AJ Brown has drawn THREE PASS INTERFERENCE penalties on Marshon Lattimore in ONE QUARTER
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— Christian D’Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) December 22, 2024 at 2: 15 PM
A 68-yard Saquon Barkley run made the score 21-7 with three minutes to play in the first quarter. That was the last time the Eagles saw the end zone in Landover.
Philly’s lack of confidence in its new quarterback wasn’t limited to the passing game. Twice the Eagles punted the ball on fourth-and-short where a Hurts Tush Push would have likely been the call. When they faked like they might go for it, it wasn’t a classic Nick Sirianni “try and stop us” call. It was this shotgun nonsense Sirianni of which eventually thought better.
via Fox
Hurts’ two drives lasted an average of eight plays each. Pickett’s 11 drives after lasted an average of 5.4, even with 14- and 12-play field goal treks in the second half. His inability to maintain possession put the onus on a defense that started hot and faded late. Early in the game, Jalen Carter was busy doing stuff like this:
Jalen Carter knew exactly what was coming on this run play, beat Tyler Biadasz with ease and forced the fumble. terrifying stuff for the rest of the NFC pic.twitter.com/bG6zNWMxSV
— Christian D’Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 22, 2024
Later on, however, this unit had no recourse for Jayden Daniels. This manifested in a few different ways. There were multiple touchdown passes to Olamide Zaccheaus, certainly. There were also fourth-and-long pickups that made the rookie look like prime Barry Sanders by virtue of, uh, a slight change in direction.
Jayden Daniels, this is witchcraft
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— Christian D’Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) December 22, 2024 at 2: 30 PM
This created the leverage needed to turn a 13-point fourth quarter deficit into a three-point win. While Washington still needed a bit of luck to keep its comeback alive (via a DeVonta Smith third down drop), this was a comeback made possible through a fading defense and, more importantly, a suddenly impotent offense.
In a season where Hurts had been outshined by his running game and a rising defense, Week 16 served as a reminder of the gravity he brings to the offense. Pickett only functioned in clean pockets with his first read open. His scrambles dissolved into the ether. His downfield strikes were poorly thrown pleas for pass interference penalties.
Hurts is several standard deviations better in every phase of the game. He serves as the blockade before the pit of each Eagles fan’s stomach, a reason to believe a comeback can be made rather than resignation to oblivion.
On Sunday, that value was on full display over the final 54 minutes of a 36-33 loss. Philadelphia cannot thrive without a fast processing, drive-extending quarterback no matter how good its skill players or blocking may be. Losing Hurts for an extended period of time could be the difference between a Super Bowl 59 run and another season spiraling out of control.
3. The Cincinnati Bengals probably won’t make the playoffs, but that isn’t Joe Burrow’s fault
USA Today Sports
Week 16 was the tune up the Bengals needed before a brutal stretch to end 2024. Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s Cleveland Browns played roughly as well as expected, finding the end zone only once in a 24-6 Cincinnati win. With games against the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers looming, this was badly needed proof the Bengals’ defense can devastate a shaky quarterback.
Joe Burrow needed no such reassurance. An MVP-caliber 2024 has only furthered his legend. He leads the league in passing yards and ranks in the top three when it comes to passing touchdowns and passer rating and top five in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.
Some of this is because he has Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on which to lean. Some of this is because Joe Burrow can occasionally bend the laws of physical nature to his will.
Joe Mahomes
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— Sam Monson (@sammonson.com) December 22, 2024 at 12: 19 PM
Burrow connected on 23 of 30 passes, bolstering his career 68.1 percent completion rate — best in NFL history. He threw three touchdown passes without a turnover, getting one each to Higgins and Chase and saving one for young wideout Andrei Iosivas, who could be primed for a bigger role in 2025 if Higgins leaves in free agency. He generated magic from his place in the backfield:
.@joeyb to @Real10jayy__#ProBowlVote + Joe Burrow#ProBowlVote + Ja’Marr Chase#CLEvsCIN on CBS pic.twitter.com/vmCKymoBSF
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 22, 2024
He spun big plays from the dying embers of a broken pocket.
*too stunned to speak*#ProBowlVote + @joeyb#CLEvsCIN on CBS pic.twitter.com/zkcqcBdTy6
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 22, 2024
The greatest trick he could deliver is getting Cincinnati back over .500. The playoffs are almost certainly out of the question. The Athletic pegs the Bengals’ postseason odds at six percent even with Sunday’s win. They’ve been the anti-Chiefs thanks to a 2-7 record in one-score games. The culprit is a suddenly glitchy defense with no real pass rushing threat behind Trey Hendrickson and a leaky secondary that’s been a bottom-eight unit when it comes to EPA allowed. Only one team in the league has given up more points than Cincinnati.
As a result, Burrow can’t gain meaningful ground on Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the MVP race. He can extend the Bengals’ string of winning seasons to four, which would be the franchise’s longest since the Marvin Lewis era. Doing that would at least keep a twinkle of hope alive for Cincin