The Baltimore Ravens will deny the Pittsburgh Steelers bid to clinch the AFC North in Week 16. At least that’s what our six-person panel believes will go down Saturday afternoon in Maryland.
The NFL’s annual creep into Saturdays begins this weekend with a pair of vital AFC matchups. The Houston Texans will try to prove they can hang with the big boys despite a disappointing 2024 when they face a hobbled Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s just an appetizer before a hard-hitting feast of AFC North hatred between two teams that have taken the division crown six of the last eight years.
That’s not the only game this week that will have major playoff implications. Let’s look at the schedule and try to pick some winners.
I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.
Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, who on a 41-4 heater, and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 15 picks:
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Browns at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Texans at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Steelers at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Cardinals at Panthers | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Lions at Bears | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Rams at Jets | Rams? | Rams | Rams |
| Giants at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons |
| Titans at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Eagles at Commanders | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Broncos at Chargers | Broncos? | Broncos | Broncos |
| Vikings at Seahawks | Vikings? | Seahawks | Vikings |
| 49ers at Dolphins | Dolphins? | 49ers | Dolphins |
| Patriots at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Jaguars at Raiders | Jaguars? | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | Bucs | Buccaneers | Buccaneers |
| Saints at Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Last week: | 13-3 | 11-5 | 14-2 |
| Year to date: | 157-67 (.701) | 146-78 (.652) | 155-69 (.692) |
and:
| Game | Mary | Prince | Meg | Andrew |
| Browns at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Texans at Chiefs | Chiefs | Texans | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Steelers at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens | Ravens |
| Cardinals at Panthers | Cardinals | Cardinals | Panthers | Cardinals |
| Lions at Bears | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Rams at Jets | Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams |
| Giants at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons | Falcons |
| Titans at Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Eagles at Commanders | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Commanders |
| Broncos at Chargers | Chargers | Broncos | Chargers | Chargers |
| Vikings at Seahawks | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| 49ers at Dolphins | Dolphins | 49ers | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Patriots at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Jaguars at Raiders | Jaguars | Raiders | Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | Buccaneers | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Saints at Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers | Packers |
| Last week: | 13-3 | 12-4 | 10-6 | 15-1 |
| Year to date: | 143-66 (.684) | 150-74 (.670) | 124-57 (.685) | 149-62 (.706) |
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:
Let’s break out three games to talk about.
Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
Nick Chubb is injured and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the Browns’ quarterback. Joe Burrow continues to play at an MVP level, even if there’s no chance he’ll win the award. Cincinnati has scored at least 27 points in each of its last six games (34 points per game in that stretch).
Why I don’t like this pick:
The Bengals have made it a point not to make anything easy in 2024. Their soft passing defense is the perfect padded spot for a flawed young quarterback to make a crash landing. Cincinnati’s offensive line is allowing pressure at a rate 33 percent higher than it gets blitzed, which means Myles Garrett might feast. Cleveland has generally shown up for AFC North games this season
Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 12-3 (.800)
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
The Dolphins have an eight percent chance to make the playoffs compared to the 49ers <1 percent (they’re a Rams win — any Rams win — away from elimination). That makes this a more vital game for Tua Tagovailoa than Brock Purdy, Purdy’s looming contract extension aside. Tagovailoa is 4-0 against teams with losing records this season and has generally taken care of business at home, where he’s got a 104.3 passer rating.
Why I don’t like this pick:
The Niners aren’t built like the other losing teams Tagovailoa has beaten in 2024. Purdy won’t deal with the same weather related issues that limited him in Week 15. T