With Steelers’ season on the line, rookie QB Kenny Pickett made several big throws. Commanders coach Ron Rivera displayed a stunning lack of awareness.
Week 17 in the NFL clarified much of the playoff picture, though not all loose ends have been resolved.
One thread that was came in the NFC South, where the improbable run of the Carolina Panthers came to an end, in large part because of the way they defended Tom Brady’s favorite target, Mike Evans. Now, Tampa Bay has won the NFC South.
Elsewhere in the conference, the Green Bay Packers (via a Washington Commanders loss) now control their destiny for the last remaining playoff spot in the NFC. But this team is much more than just quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
In the AFC, the Miami Dolphins continued their freefall and the New England Patriots climbed into the last open wild card spot … for now.
Here are the winners and losers from the penultimate week of the 2022 NFL season.
WINNERS
Kenny Pickett grows up
Facing a defense that hadn’t allowed a touchdown at home over the previous 15 quarters, Steelers (8-8) rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett made several massive throws with their season on the line, down four points and needing a touchdown to go ahead.
Pickett (15-of-27 passing for 168 yards with one touchdown) didn’t post huge numbers, but he played reasonably well. It was the game-winning series, however, when he shined. In the series, Pickett completed five of his six throws for 62 yards, including a 10-yard touchdown to running back Najee Harris in which Pickett escaped pressure and delivered an accurate pass on the move. He also converted two rushing first-down conversions on third downs via quarterback sneaks. Now, more importantly for the Steelers, their slim playoff hopes stayed alive with the victory. Pittsburgh needs to beat the Browns next week and have both the Patriots and the Dolphins drop their games.
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Even if they miss playoffs, Lions rising
Winners of seven of their last nine, the Lions have an outside shot to make the postseason. Detroit (8-8) will need to beat the Packers (8-8) in Week 18 but will also need the Seahawks (8-8) to lose against the Rams (5-11). Frankly, all of that happening is unlikely, but — either way — this season has been a resounding success for Dan Campbell and the Lions.
The Lions leaned on their rushing attack in their 41-10 victory over the Bears, setting season-highs in carries (39), yards (265) & RYOE (+98).
Jamaal Williams led the backfield with a career-high 144 rushing yards (+65 over expected).#CHIvsDET | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/Ft1ICEhUEK
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 1, 2023
Though there are still some issues to solve on defense, Detroit has injected speed onto its roster, and that’s with star rookie Jameson Williams still being worked back from his torn anterior cruciate ligament suffered in the national championship game. Jared Goff is working Detroit’s play-action passing game with absolute precision. The offensive line has been steady. And Detroit is the best team in the NFL at protecting the ball, having committed just 15 turnovers. These are all things this young team can take into next season and beyond.
Packers dangerous for many reasons
While the Vikings have had an unsustainable amount of luck, and Green Bay got a massive break with the Browns toppling the Commanders, the Packers (8-8) will be in a win-and-in scenario in next week’s finale against the Lions (8-8). Yet it’s not only Aaron Rodgers who makes Green Bay a suddenly difficult out.
Rodgers, to be clear, was efficient, completing 15-of-24 passes for 159 yards with two total touchdowns. But Green Bay’s defense and special teams set the tone with the game’s first two touchdowns: a 105-yard kickoff return by Keisean Nixon and a 75-yard pick-six by safety Darnell Savage. During Green Bay’s four-game winning streak, it is allowing just 17 points per game. Granted, they haven’t played the toughest opponents and have faced some teams struggling through injuries, but the Packers have limited opponents to 41.5% conversions on third downs and 44.4% conversions in the red zone. They’ve also forced 12 turnovers in that span.
The case for Jarrett Stidham
Let’s get the atrocious overtime interception out of the way: Stidham shouldn’t have lofted it in the face of pressure, and it’s the type of play he will need to learn from if he’s to become a viable NFL quarterback.
#Raiders TE Darren Waller reiterated QB Jarrett Stidham was teaching guys the offense when he first arrived, in April. “Jarrett had already spent time in the system, so he was pointing guys in different directions and was operating with confidence back then…(more)
— Paul Gutierrez (@PGutierrezESPN) January 2, 2023
Still, making his first career start for the Raiders (6-10), Stidham showed that — depending on the price — he may be worth a flier next season as Las Vegas determines what to do at quarterback. Stidham (23-of-34 for 365 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions) is 26 and carved up the NFL’s best defense. When the Patriots drafted Stidham in 2019, Josh McDaniels was New England’s offensive coordinator. Given his familiarity with Stidham, McDaniels makes sense as the coach who can extract the most of out him, and Stidham makes sense as a bridge player for a team that will almost certainly be looking for a new starting quarterback for the first time since the 2014 offseason.
LOSERS
Ron Rivera’s stunning lack of awareness
The Commanders coach otherwise had a solid season managing a deficient roster into playoff contention. Week 17, however, was