Ranking 7 games with the biggest playoff implications in Week 18

Some teams have nothing but pride to play for in Week 18.

The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, for example, have already locked down the top speeds and first round byes in their respective conferences. On the other side of the spectrum, 10 other teams have zero playoff aspirations. The only thing left to be decided in the final week of their seasons is where they’ll wind up picking in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Somewhere in the middle lie the games that matter. Some count only for seeding and the right to host a postseason game or two. Others are a de facto playoff game against a division rival for one or both teams involved.

Which games deserve the most attention? Let’s break down the seven most important games for the 2024 NFL Playoff field, starting with the teams that need the most help and finishing with an AFC South showdown that unofficially kicks off the “win or go home” season in Week 18.

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Saints playoff implications: Win and the NFC South title can be theirs if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers. New Orleans can also earn a Wild Card bid if the Packers and Seahawks both lose in Week 18.

Falcons playoff implications: Win and the NFC South title can be theirs if the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers.

Saints playoff odds: 29 percent

Falcons playoff odds: 13 percent

This NFC South rivalry game features two teams in the playoff hunt, but falls last on this list because neither controls its own destiny. The Saints and Falcons each have their sights set on a division title, but they’d need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose to the 2-14 Carolina Panthers to make it a possibility.

Only New Orleans keeps a glimmer of hope alive should Tampa handle its business. The Saints would still need the Green Bay Packers to lose to the surging Chicago Bears AND the Seattle Seahawks to slump their way to a road loss against the 4-12 Arizona Cardinals. That would clear the path for a Wild Card spot and likely first round matchup with the Dallas Cowboys.

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Steelers playoff implications: In with a win over the Ravens AND help. And maybe without a win, but that’s gonna require a lot to break right.

Ravens playoff implications: None; they’re already locked into the AFC’s top seed.

Steelers playoff odds: 44 percent

Ravens playoff odds: 100 percent

Pittsburgh is, for the 17th straight season, guaranteed a non-losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. The question now is whether he can ride former third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph to the promised land, then snap a seven year drought when it comes to playoff wins.

Fortunately for the Steelers, they won’t be facing the Ravens’ top guys. Baltimore has nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding.

Unfortunately for the Steelers, the Ravens have the depth of the NFL’s best team and won’t lack motivation with the opportunity to keep a hated division rival out of the postseason. In case of a loss, Pittsburgh would need the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose to the Tennessee Titans, the Denver Broncos to beat the Las Vegas Raiders AND the Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts game to not end in a tie.

That’s a lot on which to rely, so let’s simplify things. If the Steelers win in Week 18, they’d just need one of these three things to happen to make the playoffs:

the Buffalo Bills lose to the Miami Dolphins OR
the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans OR
the Texans-Colts game ends in a tie.

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Packers playoff implications: Win and earn a Wild Card spot. Lose and things get very complicated.

Bears playoff implications: None.

Packers playoff odds: 64 percent

Bears playoff odds: 0 percent

In 2022, the Packers needed a Week 18 home win over an ascending NFC North rival to make the postseason. That culminated in a 20-16 loss to the Detroit Lions in Aaron Rodgers’ last game with the team.

In 2023, Jordan Love will try to push the Packers to the playoffs in his first season as a starter. He needs… a Week 18 home win over an ascending NFC North rival to make the postseason. This time it’s the Bears, who are 5-2 in their last seven games and have fielded the NFL’s most efficient defense since their Week 10 bye.

If Green Bay loses to Chicago, here’s everying Love would need in order to make his postseason debut:

the Minnesota Vikings lose to the Detroit Lions (who’ve already clinched their playoff spot), and
the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals, and
either the Saints or Buccaneers lose.

Phew. Probably easier just to take care of things at Lambeau Field.

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Jaguars playoff implications: A win clinches the division. A loss is a real problem, but wouldn’t eliminate Jacksonville.

Titans playoff implications: None.

Jaguars playoff odds: 70 percent

Titans playoff odds: n/a

The Titans have the chance to do what the Jags did two years ago to the poor Indianapolis Colts; ruin their playoff hopes to cap a lost season. Jacksonville knocked off the Colts in Week 18 that year despite a 2-14 record (at the time) to make sure Jonathan Taylor couldn’t add to his 1,800-plus rushing yard total in the postseason.

Tennessee has nothing but pride to play for against the team that kept it out of the playoffs last season. A Jaguars loss wouldn’t eliminate them from the postseason entirely, but a Wild Card bid would only be possible if: