Rome wasn’t built in an offseason, or whatever the saying is. Unless you’re the Cincinnati Bengals, it takes time to build a winner. And the best way to track actual progress towards that goal is through, well, wins.
So, as we draw closer to the training camp portion of an offseason full of drama, it’s time to go to the bank with predictions on just how close teams are (or aren’t) to meeting sportsbook win total expectations.
Our NFL crew already hinted at how they expect next season to go with playoff predictions. These win totals shed a little more light on where we think each team is potentially headed.
AP Photo/John Locher
Robert Zeglinski: Over
Sans Tampa Bay, the NFC South is a living, breathing trash heap. Some combo of Mariota-Pitts-London and general luck means this team overshoots any low expectations easily.
Christian D’Andrea: Over
The Panthers are a mess and non-division games against the Seahawks, Browns (likely with Jacoby Brissett behind center), Bears and Commanders are all winnable. The quarterback rotation is an issue, but the combined catch radius of Kyle Pitts and Drake London is roughly 50 yards, which helps.
Prince Grimes: Under
The same teams Atlanta is looking at as possible wins are looking at them the same way.
Cole Huff: Under
Are Kyle Pitts, Cordarelle Patterson and Drake London enough? Probably not.
Zeglinski: Under
Arizona’s in way too tough of a division with the Rams and 49ers — the NFC’s two arguable best teams. Kyler Murray deserves so much better than another year wasted with Kliff “I Draw My Playbook On Truck Stop Napkins” Kingbury. This squad deserves no respect until Kliff hits the road.
D’Andrea: Under
The Cardinals collapse around Thanksgiving every season under Kliff Kingsbury. This year they’ll spend their first six games without DeAndre Hopkins, whose absence predicated last year’s winter dropoff. Double-digits losses are a possibility against a tough schedule.
Grimes: Under
I think this is a good line for the Cardinals, and I like them to fall just under 8.5. They have a rough schedule to start the season, and with no Hopkins the first six games, it’ll be harder to stack early wins the way they have in the past.
Huff: Under
I like Hollywood Brown and Kyler Murray reuniting, but ultimately no Hopkins for a while will get Arizona off to a bad start. And I won’t believe the Cards can be a good second-half-of-the-season team until I see it.
Zeglinski: Over
Lamar Jackson and Co. missed the playoffs for the first time with him as the starter last season. That’s … not going to happen this year. Don’t be surprised if No. 8 in royal purple even takes Baltimore to the AFC title game.
D’Andrea: Over
It’s not just a healthy Lamar back in the lineup — it’s getting JK Dobbins and all the running backs who got hurt early in the season as well. The WR depth is a problem, but I’m here for a Devin Duvernay explosion.
Grimes: Over
I really like this Ravens team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. And with Lamar Jackson healthy again, I think they’ll have a good chance to dethrone Cincinnati for the AFC North title.
Huff: Over
The Ravens will be back in the thick of things in the AFC assuming they have healthy bodies for the 2022-23 season.
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Zeglinski: Over
Every time I think about where the Bills could fall short, I’m stumped. I’m sure some problems will arise between now and February 2023 (the offensive line?), but Buffalo’s the best team in the sport. Anything less than 13 wins would be a disappointment.
D’Andrea: Over
The Bills had few holes to fill, then plugged them admirably this offseason and added to Josh Allen’s arsenal. It’s time to believe the hype in New York.
Grimes: Over
Last year was Buffalo’s official coming out party. This year, they prove it wasn’t a fluke. The Bills have a chance to finish the season with the league’s best record.
Huff: Over
Twelve wins aren’t too much to ask when you factor in what this Bills team did a season ago. Having a new offensive coordinator will be something to take into consideration. Still, it’s hard not to imagine this core, led by Josh Allen, taking another step forward.
Zeglinski: Under
Who’s the quarterback? Sam Darnold? Matt Corral? Oof.
Carolina has an interesting core on both sides of the ball (Jaycee Horn, Brian Burns, D.J. Moore, Christian McCaffrey) but they’re not there yet. It’ll be at least another season before this team plays any meaningful games.
D’Andrea: Under
This team has won five games in each of the last three seasons. What has significantly changed this offseason that makes anyone believe 2022 will be different?
Grimes: Under
This was truly one of the toughest teams to watch last season, and I’m not sure what exactly they did to improve.
Huff: Under
Pretty much everything the guys above me said. Who is the quarterback? What did the Panthers do to get better? Can Christian McCaffrey stay healthy? I’m out on Carolina.
Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Zeglinski: Over
By no means do I think the Bears will be in contention for a playoff spot. But this roster — with one of the arguably worst coaching staffs in the league — finished with six wins last year. Now that that staff is gone and the NFC is, on the whole, weaker: I think Justin Fields and Co. are in for another middling if surprising .500ish campaign.
D’Andrea: Under
This team’s gonna be baaaaaad. Fortunately, there’s a boatload of cap space waiting in 2023, assuming Justin Fields isn’t irreparably broken before then.
Grimes: Under
I don’t feel like Chicago did enough this offseason to give Justin Fields even a mild chance at success. There should be a little optimism due to a new coaching staff, but growing pains are still expected.
Huff: Under
Fields will be much improved in Year 2 but not enough to carry an average roster to seven wins. Their time will come, but this isn’t the year.
Zeglinski: Over
The Bengals fixed the offensive line that cost them the Super Bowl, and Joe Burrow will have an entire healthy off-season this time. Lock them in as an AFC heavyweight and don’t look back.
D’Andrea: Over
Yes, the Bengals’ horrible ownership is capable of ruining just about anything. But another 10-win season for a team that came together in the postseason and fixed its biggest weaknesses this offseason feels destined to be.
Huff: Over
The Jessie Bates contract stuff is a little worrisome, but as long as the offensive line is no longer a make-shift group of fringe NFL players, I expect this team to be even better than last year’s.
Grimes: Over
Joe Burrow is the real deal. If he isn’t already considered one of the game’s elite signal-callers, he will be by the end of another double-digit wins season.
Line currently unavailable due to uncertainty at quarterback.
Zeglinski: Under
Cleveland sold its soul for a certain person and will now pay the price on the field — as they should.
D’Andrea: Over
Jacoby Brissett can take a team with a good offensive line and talented young defense to eight wins. That’s what he did after Andrew Luck’s surprising retirement in 2019.
Grimes: Under
I mostly like Cleveland’s roster, but four combined games against the Ravens and Bengals is tough. And non-division games include the Chargers and Patriots early in the year, and the Bills and Bucs later.
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Zeglinski: Under
On paper, I think the Cowboys have one of the NFL’s better rosters. But I also think the great off-seasons from the Eagles and Giants will chip away at Dallas’s NFC East mystique. We might be in for Mike McCarthy Hot Seat Watch by Halloween.
D’Andrea: Over
The Cowboys have an extremely easy schedule for a reigning division champion — games against the Bears, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans loom. This will be the perfect schedule to pump up a Mike McCarthy team so you can bet against him in his inevitable playoff collapse.
Grimes: Under
Teams don’t win the NFC East in consecutive years. Those are just the rules. But also, I just think Dallas is due for some regression after some record-breaking offensive performances last season, and defensively forcing turnovers at an unsustainable rate.
Huff: Over
The issue isn’t what the Cowboys do in the regular season, it’s what they do after that. They’ll pile up wins and take home the NFC East, but I’m not sure what to expect after that.
Zeglinski: Under
I still think Russ can indeed cook, but I might be alone in asserting that he’s lost some heat off his fastball. Throw in the hellscape that is the AFC West, and I have a hard time rolling with a 33-year-old quarterback on a new team in a new scheme.
D’Andrea: Under
The Broncos have to handle the AFC West AND the NFC West. Brutal luck. 10 wins sounds about right for year one in Russ’s new kitchen.
Grimes: Over
Denver won seven games last season behind Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock — even while dealing with a few injuries to key players like Jerry Jeudy. Russell Wilson should be enough of an upgrade to swing some of the closer losses and compete for the division.
Huff: Under
Denver’s defense should be really good, once again. I think Russell Wilson is great but I’m not sure if he can get this offense to be good enough to make the team four wins better.
Zeglinski: Under
Why? Between Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams, among others, they actually have some game-breaking talent now. What a novel concept! Detroit will be fun, but they need time before I consider them anything more than upstart/spoiler.
D’Andrea: Over
Hell yeah, let’s get weird.
Grimes: Over
OK, so maybe I went a little too far in our playoff predictions with the Lions. But I really like the improvements this team made and feel a lot better about this bet.
Huff: Over
The Lions should be far better than a season ago. The roster is better and Dan Campbell should be better in his second year. And the NFC North probably won’t be great. There’s a chance Detroit gets to seven wins.
Zeglinski: Over
The Packers are more a lock for 12 wins given the state of the sorry NFC. I think Green Bay feels the effect of Allen Lazard WR1 and rookie Christian Watson WR2 (WR3? W4?) more than they believe. That defense might be top-five in the sport, but some of their rivals are more balanced.
D’Andrea: Under
Call me crazy, but I think this line will come down to a Week 18 game against the Detroit Lions in a situation where the Packers’ playoff spot is sealed. I trust Dan Campell playing for pride more than Jordan Love in mop-up duty in January.
Grimes: Under
This isn’t a slight. The Packers will win 11 games. I just don’t think it’ll be any more than 11.
Huff: Under
Whether at the beginning or end of the season, the Packers’ offense will have some struggle games without Davante Adams around. It will probably cost them a game or two, which keeps them under 12 wins.
Zeglinski: Over
Never count out a Lovie Smith team squeezing out every last drop of their ability on the field. The Texans are bad — maybe even very bad — but they’ll be respectable thanks in large part to Smith and his glorious beard.
D’Andrea: Under
Butt team.
Grimes: Under
They would need a few more games against Jacksonville for me to consider the over.
Huff: Over
Are we in on Davis Mills? The Texans were a 4-win team a season ago, so it’s not unrealistic to think they sneak in one more.
Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Zeglinski: Under
Look, someone’s gotta start feeling the brunt of the oversaturated AFC. A 37-year-old quarterback in new digs — who is way past his best days — is a natural choice. I like the Colts’ work in the trenches but not every team can be amazing in a jam-packed conference.
D’Andrea: Over
It’ll be close, but the Colts have a talented young roster and a quarterback who probably won’t lose to the Jaguars with the season on the line. Matt Ryan, even in his late 30s, can make the throws to push Indianapolis over the threshold.
Grimes: Over
I agree it’ll be close, and I think they eclipse this number in the final weeks of the season with games against the Giants and Texans likely being the difference between a playoff berth.
Huff: Over
Improvement at quarterback. They should be in a good spot position to make the playoffs, which means 10 wins are likely.
Zeglinski: Over
Obviously, I’m not convinced the Jaguars are ready to contend. But between the hiring of Doug Pederson and more, you know, organizational stability after last year’s debacle: I’d feel silly if I missed out on Trevor Lawrence 2.0.
D’Andrea: Under
Two games against the Texans are nice, but Jacksonville has won more than seven games exactly once in the past 11 seasons.
Grimes: Under
They would need a few more games against Houston for me to consider the over.
Huff: Under
It was ugly for Jacksonville in 2021 and I can’t imagine it being any worse. But for the Jags to reach seven wins, they’d have to more than double their wins. I don’t see it.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Zeglinski: Over
Is Andy Reid still the head coach? Is Pat Mahomes still the quarterback? They’re not going anywhere.
D’Andrea: Over
Yeah I’m not betting against the Chiefs, who looked lost at sea in a 3-4 start and still managed to hit 12 wins last season.
Grimes: Over
The rest of the div