MEXICO CITY — Mexico is dealingwith a 2nd Donald Trump presidency, and coupleof nations can match its experience as a target of Trump’s rhetoric: There haveactually been risks to close the border, enforce tariffs and even sendout U.S. forces to battle Mexican drug cartels if the nation doesn’t do more to stem the circulation of migrants and drugs.
That’s not to reference what mass deportations of migrants who are in the U.S. unlawfully might do to remittances — the cash sentout home by migrants — that have endupbeing one of Mexico’s primary sources of earnings.
But as much as this 2nd round looks like the veryfirst round — when Mexico calmed Trump by silently delivering to his migration needs — scenarios have altered, and not always for the muchbetter. Today, Mexico has in Claudia Sheinbaum a rather stern leftist ideologue as president, and Trump is not understood for handling such relations well.
Back in 2019, Mexico’s then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was a charming, plain-spoken, down-to-earth leader who appeared to comprehend Trump, duetothefactthat both had a transactional view of politics: You provide me what I desire, I’ll offer you what you desire. The 2 went on to kind a cozy relationship.
But while López Obrador was created in the give-and-take politics of the often-corrupt previous judgment celebration, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, Sheinbaum grew up in a household of leftist activists and got her political experience in radical university trainee motions.
“Claudia is more ideological than López Obrador, and so the issue is that I see her possibly reacting to Trumpian policies, whether it’s, you understand, arranged criminalactivity or migration or tariffs with a much more nationalistic, jingoistic view of the relationship,” stated Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico’s previous ambassador to the U.S. from 2007 to 2013.
Sheinbaum made a point of being one of the veryfirst world leaders to call Trump on Thursday to praise him after the election, however throughout the call Trump did 2 things that might state a lot about how things will go.
First, Sheinbaum stated, Trump rapidly brought up the border to remind her there were concerns there. Then he asked Sheinbaum to sendout his greetings to López Obrador, with whom Trump stated he had “a really excellent relationship.” That may recommend that Trump thinks that López Obrador — the brand-new president’s political coach — is still in charge, a view shared by some experts.
Sarukhan stated he thinks the reality that Sheinbaum is a lady and is from Mexico will be “a extremely essential difficulty, an problem out there as both of them get going in their relationship.”
There’s little possibility that Trump will get captured up in other problems and simply forget about Mexico. Karoline Leavitt, the Trump-Vance shift spokesperson, stated Trump hadactually been provided “a required to carryout the guarantees he made on the project path. He will provide.”
Not whatever has altered for the evenworse: Cross-border trade has topped $800 billion per year and U.S. business are more reliant than ever on Mexican plants.
But the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade contract, or USMCA, is coming up for evaluation, and Mexico hasactually made legal modifications that Trump might take on to need a re-negotiation of parts of the offer.
Sheinbaum has recommended Mexico won’t provide in even if back