TLDR:
- The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, putting $150B+ in potential refunds on the table for U.S. firms.
- Refunds won’t be automatic; companies must file claims or lawsuits to recover payments made under the tariffs.
- If tariffs ease, import costs may fall, inflation could cool, and the Fed may have room to cut rates sooner.
- Trump retains tariff authority under Sections 232, 301, and 122, though broader tariffs now require stronger legal grounds.
The Supreme Court has ruled Trump’s sweeping tariffs unconstitutional, upending a cornerstone of his trade policy.
Importers across the U.S. paid over $150 billion under these tariffs. The government now faces pressure to return that money. The ruling reshapes the trade landscape and carries wide economic consequences.
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Opens Door to $150 Billion in Refunds
The tariffs in question relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA. The court’s decision strips that tool from the administration’s trade arsenal. It does not, however, eliminate the president’s authority to levy tariffs altogether.
Refunds will not flow automatically to affected companies. According to Bull Theory, businesses will likely need to file formal claims or pursue litigation. That process could take months or years to resolve.
The Supreme Court has ruled Trump’s tariffs ILLEGAL and the goverment may have to refund $150 Billion+ to the U.S. companies.
Let us explain
How this refund will work,
The impact on US economy,
and Trump’s Backup plan.Importers have already paid roughly $150 billion under… pic.twitter.com/G92DSXNZ4t
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 20, 2026
If the government approves large-scale refunds, federal revenue takes a serious hit. The fiscal gap could force higher borrowing, which tends to push Treasury yields upward. That creates a new pressure point for bond markets.
At the same time, removing these tariffs could ease cost burdens on importers. Lower import costs typically reduce what businesses charge consumers. That could translate into softer inflation readings over time.
Crypto and Financial Markets Watch Fed’s Next Move Amid Tariff Fallout
The Federal Reserve currently faces a difficult position. Growth signals are soft. Inflation remains sticky. The tariff ruling adds a new variable to that calculation.
If import costs fall and inflation cools, the Fed gains mor