College Football Playoff Rankings: Forecasting the top 8 contenders

With the last weekend of football before the College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its first set of rankings on Tuesday, let’s take stock of just who has the best chance to get into those coveted four playoff spots, and which team looks like it has — wink, wink, eye test! — the best chance to stay there.

1. Ohio State

The Buckeyes have looked and acted like the best team in America. The Buckeyes have combined a devastating offensive attack led by a Heisman-caliber quarterback in C.J. Stroud with a defense that looks capable of slaying dragons named Michigan, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee.

Even more impressive, the Buckeyes are beginning to look a lot like 2018 Clemson.

As I wrote in our Week 9 roundtable, peep game:

2018 Clemson: 

• Scored 44.3 points per game
• Allowed 13.1 points per game
• 15-0, national champs

2022 Ohio State: 

• Scores 49.6 points per game
• Allows 14.9 points per game
• 7-0

Clemson played two ranked opponents in the regular season en route to the 2018 national title: NC State and Boston College.  

If the rankings hold, Ohio State will play two ranked opponents in the regular season: No. 13 Penn State and No. 4 Michigan.  

Clemson has shown all OSU has to do is win. I think Ohio State enters the CFP rankings no lower than No. 2 with a great argument for being ranked No. 1 on Nov. 1 if the Buckeyes beat Penn State, a program that has managed just one win against OSU since 2012.

For the first time since 2020, the Buckeyes look capable of winning the national title. 

2. Georgia

After a remarkable performance against a rather good Oregon program to open the season, the Bulldogs have looked vulnerable against teams with the kind of personnel that OSU, Alabama, Michigan and perhaps Tennessee possess. 

Last season, only one team scored 21 or more against UGA en route to its first national title in 40 years, and that was national title runner-up Alabama. 

This season, the Dawgs have allowed 21 or more versus foundering Missouri and Kent State. That’s hardly the look of a dominating defending national champ.

But the schedule UGA plays is still tough, with a potential top-five matchup against Tennessee in just over a week. The Dawgs will have a chance to once again cruise comfortably into the CFP if they walk into the SEC title game undefeated.

3. Michigan

It’s a new day in Ann Arbor, and it’s the same as the old day — if the old day is simply 2021. The Wolverines have passed the eye test, even with a poor nonconference schedule, because the Big Ten — let alone the Big Ten East — is just that tough in 2022. 

However, the Wolverines face a foe in Michigan State that has beaten them two years in a row to take home the state championship. But the Spartans have taken a step back since their 11-win 2021 season and are seeking to get back to .500 with a win against one of the four best teams in the country. 

This is an opportunity for the Wolverines to throw down another marker — a mental one at that — for the selection committee ahead of its rankings.

Putting away a team that is 10-4 against you since 2008 will go a long way toward ensuring a second-straight appearance in the CFP with “The Game” against Ohio State still ahead on Nov. 26.

4. Clemson

The team that has made the most noise since the inception of the CFP has a chance to slide into it again, although the Tigers can’t afford a loss.

Close calls against Syracuse, Wake Forest and a fully-stocked NC State — all ranked at the time of their matchups — have called into question just how competitive the Tigers might be in the CFP.

But no team has done more to earn the benefit of the doubt than the Tigers, even against an ACC schedule that doesn’t answer many burning questions about Clemson’s readiness.

With a bye week and a bona fide quarterback controversy to sort through, where the selection committee ranks Clemson will set the table for what’s possible for the Pac-12 champion, Big 12 champion and third-best team in the SEC.

5. Tennessee

As it stands, the two best teams in the SEC are both in the SEC East — a phrase that hasn’t been true since 2008. But that’s the nature of not just the SEC but the schedule UT is forced to play. 

The Vols will likely play seven ranked opponents this season. If they win them all — they’re already 4-0 against ranked teams — they’ll be tied for the most ranked wins in the sport. 

With quarterback Hendon Hooker receiving Heisman Trophy attention, the Vols will play their fifth-ranked opponent Saturday when No. 19 Kentucky visits Neyland Stadium.

While the Vols are all but assured a spot among the top-five teams in the selection committee’s initial rankings based on their résumé — which includes a 7-0 start and the best win of the season against then-No. 3 Alabama — the Vols still must face their toughest test of the season when they play UGA on Nov. 5.

6. TCU

TCU knows better than any team in the running for one of these four coveted CFP spots that it can’t afford a single blemish. 

It’s an undefeated season or bust for the Horned Frogs in a year in which neither Oklahoma nor Texas look like New Year’s Six bowl teams, let alone CFP contenders. 

Though the Horned Frogs have beaten as many ranked opponents as Tennessee, the CFP selection committee has been burned by including the Big 12 champion in years past — Oklahoma — and might not be inclined to do so again without that team being undefeated.

TCU would do well to pour it on against West Virginia just to keep the naysayers quiet on Tuesday night after the rankings are revealed.

7. Alabama

For Alabama to make the CFP, the Tide needs to roll through what remains of its schedule and punch its ticket to the SEC title game for the third year in a row. Then they need to beat the SEC East winner — presumably a rematch against Tennessee or a showdown against UGA — for the SEC crown. 

However, an undefeated Clemson or TCU might make securing the fourth spot in the CFP tough.

The Tide is on a bye this week as they wait to find out just how steep the climb to a seventh appearance in the CFP is, and they prepare for a Nov. 5 SEC showdown against LSU.

8. Oregon

For Oregon to make the CFP, the Ducks not only need to decisively run the table against their remaining Pac-12 competition and wish the selection committee forgets they lost by 46 to UGA, but hope that one of the undefeated teams ahead of them in the rankings catches a loss. 

They need to make light work of Cal this weekend. Even a close win against a bad Golden Bears team can hurt the Ducks’ chances of reaching the CFP.

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RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube.