NFL Week 16 betting preview: ‘More tickets and money on the Ravens right now’

When the same comment could have come from either a bookmaker or a bettor, then you know something interesting just happened.

“Somehow, the Eagles let Drew Lock go 92 yards.”

Trust me, plenty of people on both sides of Monday Night Football wagering were saying that same thing. In this instance, it was BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini marveling at how fortuitous it was for Seattle to upset Philadelphia. Consider it an early Christmas gift for the sportsbooks.

“It was a huge swing. It was the difference between a losing and winning weekend,” Cipollini said.

Obviously, the books hope for more of the same in the NFL Week 16 odds market, while bettors look to stuff their stockings. And once again, a winning or losing week could come down to the last game: Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers on Christmas night.

So, let’s dive into this week’s NFL and college football betting nuggets.

Super Bowl Preview?

The Niners and Ravens are the consensus top two teams in the Super Bowl odds market. San Fran is starting to put some distance between itself and the field, though. At The SuperBook, the 49ers are +150 favorites to win it all, followed by the Ravens at +500, then the Kansas City Chiefs at +700. No other team is shorter than +1200.

San Francisco opened as a 5-point home favorite against Baltimore and is up to -5.5 at The SuperBook. But the early point-spread action might surprise you.

“We’ve got more tickets and money on the Ravens right now,” SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said Wednesday night. “I think we’ll see some Niners love, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more spread tickets on the Ravens at kickoff.

“That said, I can see the Niners being in teasers and moneyline parlays. If a lot of favorites win this week, then we’ll need the Ravens to knock out those moneyline parlays.”

Just like they needed Seattle last Monday night vs. Philly. Which brings up something very much worth noting: Underdogs are on a 7-0 outright upset run on Monday Night Football. The trend snuck up on Degnon, and bettors aren’t on it either.

“Wow. I didn’t even realize that. But I don’t think that’s swayed any of the action to this point,” he said, while noting the book certainly doesn’t mind those outcomes. “When the football weekend ends with an underdog victory, that is usually good for the book.”

Kickoff for this massive game is at 8: 15 p.m. ET, capping the Christmas Day triple-header that opens with Raiders-Chiefs at 1 p.m. ET. That’s followed by Giants-Eagles at 4: 30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

NFL Rocks on FOX

Along with that Giants-Eagles game — which, granted, has lost some luster during New York’s disappointing season — FOX has its own showdown of potential Super Bowl contenders on Sunday. The Dallas Cowboys travel to face the Miami Dolphins at 4: 25 p.m. ET.

Dallas is coming off a stinging 31-10 loss at Buffalo, in which the Cowboys didn’t get a touchdown until just 2: 48 remained in the game. On the flip side, Miami is coming off a 30-0 home shutout of the Jets.

Both the Dolphins and Cowboys are +1200 on The SuperBook’s Super Bowl oddsboard. So are the Eagles and Buffalo Bills, for that matter. Degnon said betting on the Cowboys-Dolphins showdown demonstrates more equality.

“Ticket count is about even, and there’s a little more money on the Cowboys,” he said. “I think that’s a game that’s gonna write good two-way action throughout the week.”

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay is intrigued by another key matchup on FOX and the FOX Sports app: Sunday’s Detroit Lions-Minnesota Vikings tilt. McKay is on Vikings +3.5 and +3. He’s not on Minnesota moneyline, but might just talk himself into it.

“I believe this will be a home-and-home series split with these two teams in the next three weeks,” McKay said.

Minnesota hosts this week, at 1 p.m. ET Sunday, and Detroit is at home against the Vikings in Week 18.

Another wager already in motion for McKay is Under 46 in the New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams Thursday night game.

“I’m going to stick with Under on Thursday night,” McKay said. “These two teams and offensive lines like to run the ball more than pass. I believe there will be some ball control by both offenses, leading to an Under.”

And in a battle of playoff-contending Florida teams, McKay is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags opened as 2.5-point favorites at multiple sportsbooks. But on Monday, QB Trevor Lawrence entered concussion protocol in the wake of Sunday’s 23-7 home loss to the Ravens.

That led to the number ultimately jumping the fence, with the Bucs now short road favorites.

“I like the number now, even if Lawrence plays. If he doesn’t play, I like it even better,” McKay said.

On Campus Sharp Side

There are several bowl games over the next few days, including seven on Saturday. College football betting expert Paul Stone only likes one at this point: James Madison vs. Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas, at TCU’s stadium. 

After getting out to an 8-0 start, Air Force lost its final four games of the regular season. The Falcons (8-4) are 1-point underdogs against the Dukes (11-1). Despite Air Force’s late-season collapse, Stone is backing the Falcons this weekend.

That’s largely due to the expected return of speedy senior quarterback Zac Larrier. The 6-0, 195-pounder missed Air Force’s final three games due to a knee injury but has practiced leading up to the bowl and is expected to play.

“Air Force is a different team with a healthy Zac Larrier,” Stone said. “Plus, the Falcons are tough in bowl games (four straight wins), thrive as a road underdog (12-5-1 ATS since 2015) and love playing in the state of Texas.

“I think they’ll beat James Madison outright. So I’d recommend taking Air Force at +105 or thereabouts on the moneyline.”

More NFL Numbers

Degnon chimed in on a couple more key games in the NFL Week 16 odds market: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday and Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans on Sunday.

The Bengals, minus Joe Burrow since his Week 11 wrist injury, are trying to ride backup Jake Browning to the playoffs. Cincy is on a three-game win streak to stand 8-6 and would be in if the playoffs began today.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are 7-7 after losing three in a row and four of their last five. Cincy opened as a 1.5-point road favorite, got to -2.5 in a hurry Sunday and settled at -2 Tuesday.

“There are more tickets on the Bengals, but money is about even. There’s not a ton of interest in the game yet,” Degnon said. “I think the public will be more on the Bengals. The Steelers have looked lost the last couple of weeks.”

Joe Flacco, who signed just a month ago, has jumped in late to save Cleveland’s season. This is slightly off-topic, but how many teams must be kicking themselves for passing on an opportunity to sign Flacco before the Browns did? The Jets, Giants and Steelers jump firmly to mind, and surely others’ fortunes could’ve improved by signing the veteran.

But I digress. The Browns are 9-5 and sit at No. 5 in the AFC, which makes them the top Wild Card team. Houston is 8-6 and would currently lose tiebreakers to Cincy and Indianapolis for the seventh and final AFC slot. So Browns-Texans is a pretty big game for both teams.

Oh, and standout rookie QB C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol. So a game that opened Texans -2.5 has now flipped to Browns -2.5 (-120) at The SuperBook.

“It looks like Stroud is gonna be out,” Degnon said. “We took sharp money on Cleveland +2.5 and +1.5 early in the week. It’s almost 2/1 tickets in favor of the Browns, and there’s a lot more money on the Browns right now.”

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There must be something about the holidays that slows the high rollers’ roll. No major wagers have been reported yet for this week’s NFL or college football matchups. Hopefully, those big players are spending a few dollars on their family and friends and donating to worthy causes to get into the holiday spirit.

But there are some seriously high stakes on the line in the Circa Survivor pool, easily the largest legal, regulated payout of such a pool in U.S. history. With 9,267 entries at $1,000 a pop, the pot is a massive $9.267 million

The field of thousands is now down to the final 10 entering Week 16. That gives each entry an implied value of $926,700. And as if this contest isn’t challenging enough by this point, there’s an added hurdle in Week 16: The Thursday, Saturday, Sunday games count as one week — ostensibly Week 16A; the Christmas Day triple-header counts as Week 16B.

So the 10 entrants have to make two selections this week.

Here’s a perhaps stunning fact regarding Week 16B, in the event all 10 survive Week 16A: Nine of the 10 remaining entrants still have the Eagles available. How fortunate is that, with Philly surely itching to snap its three-game slide and sitting as a 12-point home favorite vs. the Giants on Christmas Day?

Furthermore, two entrants still have the Chiefs at their disposal. In fact, one those two entrants – named Rod Beck Apples-2 in the contest – still hasn’t used Kansas City or Philadelphia this season. The Chiefs are 10-point home favorites against the Raiders.

Having two double-digit favorites – and the two teams that met in last year’s Super Bowl – still up your sleeve is a pretty good spot to be in, with four picks remaining and nine million bucks on the line.

“As we have four weeks left of the contest, life-changing money is up for grabs,” Circa Sports director of operations Jeff Benson said. “Christmas Day becomes extremely interesting, particularly if you have one Chiefs and nine Eagles backers.”

Which could be the case if all 10 entrants survive Week 16A. That’s because everyone has already used the Ravens and 49ers, and the second entrant who still has K.C. available doesn’t have Philly available. So that contestant has no choice but to play the Chiefs on Christmas Day, while eight of the other nine must select the Eagles, and the ninth could select the Eagles, too.

“We could see a solo Circa Survivor winner with a payout rivaling the World Series of Poker. Exciting stuff,” Benson said.

Exciting stuff, indeed. With a timely huge upset, someone could be in line for the ultimate stocking stuffer. Enjoy the games, and Merry Christmas!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.