What’s next for Bills after another crushing playoff loss to Chiefs?

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The Buffalo Bills can’t beat Patrick Mahomes. Not in the postseason.

Hear me out: That really ain’t so bad. 

Yes, yes, it’s brutal that Buffalo is living the Groundhog Day existence, with perennial divisional-round exits in the postseason. I walked through the hoards of Bills fans at Highmark Stadium after the game Sunday night and heard their frustrations as they headed for the exits following a 27-23 loss. It was bleak.

But there are only two quarterbacks who have ever beaten Mahomes in the postseason: Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. 

That’s it — the whole list.

This isn’t to say the Bills can or should give up on beating Mahomes. But they also need to keep perspective. 

It’s not time to tear down Buffalo’s roster as we know it. It’s not time to trade receiver Stefon Diggs or even part ways with coach Sean McDermott. Certainly, quarterback Josh Allen isn’t the problem. Though he’s 0-3 against Mahomes in the postseason, Allen might be the biggest solution in overcoming this drought against Mahomes. It’s just a matter of the Bills spending another offseason tinkering around their all-world quarterback. Trying something similar — but different.

The high-level question is: How do the Bills beat the Chiefs in the postseason?

That question then trickles into every one of the team’s smaller decisions. Because you can bet that’s the prism through which GM Brandon Beane is continuing his team-building process: How does this decision help us beat Mahomes? It’s the same question that teams were asking themselves about Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots earlier this century. It’s what teams will ask about this Chiefs team for the rest of the 2020s.

That overarching question of beating Mahomes leads to some smaller ones.

How can the Bills fix their salary cap situation, with the team at $43 million over the cap? Given those cap issues, how can the Bills retain their pending free agents? And if they can’t retain all the departing talent (spoiler: they can’t), where do they find the depth they needed this year after injuries? How can the Bills rethink their training regimen to help prevent injuries? How can the Bills get Diggs more involved on offense while keeping from getting predictable? Can the Bills rely upon Khalil Shakir to be WR2 next year or should they bring in another high-level complement to Diggs? Who will be the offensive coordinator in 2024? How much running is healthy for Allen? How much can they rely upon Von Miller and Tre’Davious White to contribute next year?

That’s a lot of questions, but I’m just getting started. But let’s not get too into the weeds. That’s for when the weather is warm and we’re picking apart OTAs and minicamp in June. Let’s keep an eye on the bigger picture.

The Bills’ biggest issues start and end with their salary cap space. 

If they restructure contracts for Allen, Diggs and left tackle Dion Dawkins, they might get below the cap. But even then, it depends upon how they change those three contracts. They might have to keep going. That will mean shedding additional talented players, though there aren’t any obvious candidates. They could decide to trade or cut veterans Miller and/or White. (The Bills could also trade Diggs, but I don’t think that helps them win whatsoever.) 

Some rosters have obvious salary cap casualty candidates. The Bills do not. Every cap decision is going to be a difficult one this year.

When you look at the work they’ll have to do just to get to a place where they can finally spend some money, you’ll see just how daunting their pending free-agent list looks. Because maybe the injuries limited their talent in 2023. But it might feel similarly decimated this offseason after the potential departure of some of the following players: S Micah Hyde, DE Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, CB Dane Jackson, DE A.J. Epenesa, S Taylor Rapp, DTs DaQuan Jones, Jordan Phillips, Tim Settle, Poona Ford and Linval Joseph, DE Shaq Lawson,  CB Cameron Lewis, WRs Gabriel Davis and Trent Sherfield, RBs Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray and Damien Harris and backup QB Kyle Allen.

So this is where Allen and McDermott come into play. They both got better at their jobs this year. But there’s still a lot of room for improvement. 

Allen had his issues as a passer and as a reader of defenses — that’s where he can improve. Just look at Sunday’s game. Kansas City was throwing defensive disguises at Allen because the Chiefs felt that was the key to keeping him contained. Of course, the Bills drops on downfield throws didn’t help. (Diggs had one and Trent Sherfield had two.) But 32 of Allen’s 39 passes traveled eight yards or fewer. He completed just two of his seven passes beyond eight yards. He wasn’t throwing downfield, which made those drops seem all the more frustrating.

“We did a lot of things where we were showing him one thing on defense pre-snap and then post-snap, we were running into a whole different coverage,” Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie said postgame in the locker room. “For a quarterback, that can be hard to throw deep.”

He added: “Not giving these great quarterbacks easy reads.”

The good news was that Allen didn’t turn over the ball in any of his postseason games. And earlier this year, when Allen had an interception in 12 of the final 13 regular-season games, it felt like the coaching staff would never figure out how to make those stop. His decision-making got better as he got more comfortable using his legs. His aptitude for the game and risk-taking are two parts that are still improving.

The bad news is that Allen probably still needs help at receiver to go with Diggs and Shakir in 2024. Tight end Dalton Kincaid will help. But it’s hard to trust him to make the impact Buffalo really needs. The Bills may have to trust Kincaid and Shakir’s evolution, however, because of the cap space issues.

Allen’s evolution will need to continue. The same is true of McDermott’s.

The coach’s in-game decision-making looked less conservative this year — and for the better. His defense had a rough game against a so-so Chiefs offense, and that might have left a poor taste in fans’ mouths. But he held this defense together and improved in fourth-quarter management in 2023. His fourth–down decisions seemed the proper proportion of aggressive for most of the second half of the season and the postseason. 

Against the Chiefs, the glaring mistake was the fake punt when McDermott seemed to get wrapped up in a feel-good story. The Bills direct snapped to safety Damar Hamlin, the man who almost died on the field in 2022 only to return to the football field this season. This isn’t to take away from Hamlin. His story is incredible. He is incredible. Period. It just wasn’t smart to give him the ball in such an uncreative way (a direct snap run up the middle) at such a crucial moment when Allen — you know, the all-world quarterback who is a threat to run and throw — could have attempted the fourth down. 

“He’s grown so much as a head coach, just like me as a quarterback,” Allen said Monday of McDermott in an end-of-season press conference. 

Allen is obviously trailing Mahomes in terms of greatness. And not just in terms of trophies and rings but in what you can see it on the field. Mahomes’ control of games is better than Allen’s — and 99% of quarterbacks to ever play the game. And while this was Allen’s best shot to beat Mahomes to date (with a home-field advantage and a K.C. roster devoid of established receiving talent), it doesn’t mean the next shot won’t be the one where the Bills get over the edge. Even if the odds are stacked against Buffalo more than they were this time.

And it will likely be harder. The Bills’ money crunch is worse than ever. That’s because Allen’s salary is bigger than ever.

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So … what’s next for the Bills?

Well, that’s for Allen to decide. He is their past, present and future. If he can’t keep growing, then the Bills might never beat Mahomes. But from what we saw this year, there are signs Allen isn’t done developing. And he has a young core in James Cook, Shakir and Kincaid to develop around him.

“Future’s bright for those young guys — and for myself included,” Allen said.

Allen isn’t done getting better. He can’t be.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.