I’ve written more than once that I’d be willing to draft any of the top three starting pitchers with a late first-round pick, a departure from my usual approach of ignoring whatever pitcher happens to go that early.
Some years, the top pitcher is the top pitcher just because somebody has to be, and it’s not obvious that he represents an enormous advantage over the pitchers that follow. But this year, I’d say that Tark Skubal, Garrett Crochet and Paul Skenes are an order of magnitude better than anyone else at the position — about three rounds’ worth of value, if you forced me to put a number on it.
What I haven’t addressed yet is the possibility of grabbing two of them.
There are reasons for this, not the least of which is that ADP shows it to be unlikely. But the opportunity presented itself to me with the 12th pick in our latest Head-to-Head categories mock, and I saw fit to take it, grabbing both Crochet and Skenes.
I may not have done it in a pure Rotisserie league, where every team has four additional hitter spots to fill, taking us that much deeper into that side of the player pool. I’d be putting myself at an enormous disadvantage in the hitter categories, after all, and wanted to feel like enough quality hitter options would be available deep enough into the draft for me to make up that ground. I also wouldn’t have done it in a Head-to-Head points league, where the gap between the top three starting pitchers and everyone else isn’t as big. Skubal, Crochet and Skenes mostly stand out for their ratios, and those aren’t scored directly in points leagues.
So this particular mock presented me with a unique opportunity to try it out. And you know what? I think I liked it.
I wasn’t so sure at first because, by my own rankings, the best hitters available to me at the Round 3-4 turn were Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. If that seems underwhelming to you given what you know about this year’s draft pool, yeah, I felt the same. It turns out nobody touched starting pitcher for the entirety of Round 3, which depleted the hitter ranks faster than usual. I could have taken Yoshinobu Yamamoto there, for goodness’ sake, but after already using my first two picks on starting pitcher, it would have been self-defeating to do so.
But I didn’t panic. I accepted the combined 50 home runs, 180 RBI and 180 runs that Freeman and Betts are likely to provide, even at their age, and trusted that better hitter values would be available to me in subsequent rounds, after the rest of the league inevitably turned its attention to pitching. And I’m pleased to report that Rounds 5-6 presented me with Josh Naylor and Cody Bellinger.
Pairing Naylor with Freeman, you say? I felt like my need to make up ground in the hitting categories was so great at that point that I couldn’t afford to be so picky about the position. My goal was to take the best hitter available, seizing upon whomever happened to slip through the cracks, and I felt like I had the leeway to do so because of the second utility spot offered by these Yahoo-style lineups.
It continued from there with Bo Bichette in Round 7, even though I already had a shortstop in Mookie Betts. But hey, I’m better served shifting Bichette to third base anyway once he gains eligibility there. As thin as third base is, that has to factor into the calculus with him. Randy Arozarena presented me with an opportunity for a big base-stealer in Round 8 and pairs nicely with Bichette given their disparity in batting average.
The biggest benefit to taking Crochet and Skenes right away is that I didn’t have to worry — not consider, but worry — about pitching for the rest of the draft. Yeah, I still took some when it made sense to, but I could really focus in on hitters without giving in to the creeping doubt that no amount of pitching is ever enough. By biding my time at the deepest positions (namely catcher and outfield) and leaning on the versatility offered by a second utility spot, I managed to cobble together a lineup with only one actual hole: second base, where Matt McLain at least gives me some hope for upside.
The clincher was the Round 15-16 turn. At that point, I still felt like I didn’t have enough power, with none of my hitters projecting for 30 home runs, and the draft room was quickly running out of it. But there, about 50 spots below ADP, sat Teoscar Hernandez, Taylor Ward, and what should be a combined 60-70 home runs. I just so happened to have a spot in my lineup for both of them (or I will once Bichette is third base-eligible).
That won’t always happen, of course, but if not Hernandez and Ward, it would have been someone. Again, the lineups here aren’t the Rotisserie ones that ADP is built on. The hitter spots fill up quicker, and most drafters will want to turn to pitching earlier as a result, overcompensating because of the inherent risks. Taking two of the top guys at that ever-volatile position freed me from that anxiety and allowed me to capitalize on the resulting hitter values. I’m a little short on steals still, I would say, but I think the approach can work.
Enough about me, though. Here’s who else took part in this draft, along with the complete results:
1) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
2)??Nick Fox, NBC Sports (@CT_FOX)
3)??Mike Nelson, Fantasy Baseball Now
4)??B_Don, Razzball (@RazzBDon)
5) Sean Millerick, Marlin Maniac (@miasportsminute)
6) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
7) Raymond Atherton, Fantasy Aceball (@RaymondAtherton)
8) George Kurtz, Sportsgrid (@GeorgeKurtz)
9)??Peter Clement, avid listener and smart guy
10)??Jeremy Heist, Fantistics Fantasy (@heistjm)
11) Doc Eisenhauer, Prospects Live (@DocEisenhauer)
12)??Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
Round By Round
| Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 1 | Frank Stampfl | A. Judge RF NYY |
| 2 | Nick Fox | S. Ohtani DH LAD |
| 3 | Mike Nelson | B. Witt SS KC |
| 4 | B_Don | J. Ramirez 3B CLE |
| 5 | Sean Millerick | J. Soto RF NYM |
| 6 | Chris Towers | R. Acuna Jr. RF ATL |
| 7 | Raymond Atherton | K. Tucker RF LAD |
| 8 | George Kurtz | T. Skubal SP DET |
| 9 | Peter Clement | J. Rodriguez CF SEA |
| 10 | Jeremy Heist | E. De La Cruz SS CIN |
| 11 | Doc Eisenhauer | F. Tatis Jr. RF SD |
| 12 | Scott White | G. Crochet SP BOS |
| Round 2 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 13 | Scott White | P. Skenes SP PIT |
| 14 | Doc Eisenhauer | J. Caminero 3B TB |
| 15 | Jeremy Heist | K. Schwarber DH PHI |
| 16 | Peter Clement | V. Guerrero Jr. 1B TOR |
| 17 | George Kurtz | C. Carroll RF ARI |
| 18 | Raymond Atherton | G. Henderson SS BAL |
| 19 | Chris Towers | J. Chisholm 2B NYY |
| 20 | Sean Millerick | N. Kurtz 1B ATH |
| 21 | B_Don | Z. Neto SS LAA |
| 22 | Mike Nelson | P. Alonso 1B BAL |
| 23 | Nick Fox | T. Turner SS PHI |
| 24 | Frank Stampfl | J. Chourio CF MIL |
| Round 3 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 25 | Frank Stampfl | C. Raleigh C SEA |
| 26 | Nick Fox | P. Crow-Armstrong CF CHC |
| 27 | Mike Nelson | B. Turang 2B MIL |
| 28 | B_Don | Y. Alvarez DH HOU |
| 29 | Sean Millerick | F. Lindor SS NYM |
| 30 | Chris Towers | K. Marte 2B ARI |
| 31 | Raymond Atherton | R. Devers DH SF |
| 32 | George Kurtz | M. Olson 1B ATL |
| 33 | Peter Clement | M. Machado 3B SD |
| 34 | Jeremy Heist | J. Wood LF WAS |
| 35 | Doc Eisenhauer | B. Harper 1B PHI |
| 36 | Scott White | F. Freeman 1B LAD |
| Round 4 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 37 | Scott White | M. Betts SS LAD |
| 38 | Doc Eisenhauer | W. Langford LF TEX |
| 39 | Jeremy Heist | Y. Yamamoto SP LAD |
| 40 | Peter Clement | B. Rooker DH ATH |
| 41 | George Kurtz | R. Anthony RF BOS |
| 42 | Raymond Atherton | G. Perdomo SS ARI |
| 43 | Chris Towers | L. Gilbert SP SEA |
| 44 | Sean Millerick | J. Merrill CF SD |
| 45 | B_Don | B. Woo SP SEA |
| 46 | Mike Nelson | H. Greene SP CIN |
| 47 | Nick Fox | C. Sale SP ATL |
| 48 | Frank Stampfl | C. Sanchez SP PHI |
| Round 5 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 49 | Frank Stampfl | M. Miller RP SD |
| 50 | Nick Fox | M. Fried SP NYY |
| 51 | Mike Nelson | H. Brown SP HOU |
| 52 | B_Don | E. Diaz RP LAD |
| 53 | Sean Millerick | W. Contreras C MIL |
| 54 | Chris Towers | J. deGrom SP TEX |
| 55 | Raymond Atherton | A. Riley 3B ATL |
| 56 | George Kurtz | A. Munoz RP SEA |
| 57 | Peter Clement | C. Seager SS TEX |
| 58 | Jeremy Heist | C. Ragans SP KC |
| 59 | Doc Eisenhauer | C. Abrams SS WAS |
| 60 | Scott White | J. Naylor 1B SEA |
| Round 6 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 61 | Scott White | C. Bellinger LF NYY |
| 62 | Doc Eisenhauer | M. Garcia 3B KC |
| 63 | Jeremy Heist | S. Langeliers C ATH |
| 64 | Peter Clement | S. Suzuki DH CHC |
| 65 | George Kurtz | L. Webb SP SF |
| 66 | Raymond Atherton | B. Rice 1B NYY |
| 67 | Chris Towers | G. Springer DH TOR |
| 68 | Sean Millerick | G. Kirby SP SEA |
| 69 | B_Don | J. Duran LF BOS |
| 70 | Mike Nelson | R. Greene LF DET |
| 71 | Nick Fox | E. Suarez 3B CIN |
| 72 | Frank Stampfl | V. Pasquantino 1B KC |
| Round 7 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 73 | Frank Stampfl | J. Ryan SP MIN |
| 74 | Nick Fox | F. Valdez SP DET |
| 75 | Mike Nelson | J. Duran RP PHI |
| 76 | B_Don | C. Smith RP CLE |
| 77 | Sean Millerick | K. Bradish SP BAL |
| 78 | Chris Towers | C. Yelich DH MIL |
| 79 | Raymond Atherton | J. Luzardo SP PHI |
| 80 | George Kurtz | A. Bregman 3B CHC |
| 81 | Peter Clement | A. Chapman RP BOS |
| 82 | Jeremy Heist | B. Buxton CF MIN |
| 83 | Doc Eisenhauer | E. Perez SP MIA |
| 84 | Scott White | B. Bichette SS NYM |
| Round 8 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 85 | Scott White | R. Arozarena LF SEA |
| 86 | Doc Eisenhauer | L. Keaschall 2B MIN |
| 87 | Jeremy Heist | D. Bednar RP NYY |
| 88 | Peter Clement | J. Hader RP HOU |
| 89 | George Kurtz | F. Peralta SP NYM |
| 90 | Raymond Atherton | T. Rogers SP BAL |
| 91 | Chris Towers | J. Pena SS HOU |
| 92 | Sean Millerick | N. Hoerner 2B CHC |
| 93 | B_Don | H. Goodman C COL |
| 94 | Mike Nelson | O. Cruz CF PIT |
| 95 | Nick Fox | T. Soderstrom LF ATH |
| 96 | Frank Stampfl | D. Cease SP TOR |
| Round 9 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 97 | Frank Stampfl | T. Story SS BOS |
| 98 | Nick Fox | B. Nimmo LF TEX |
| 99 | Mike Nelson | M. Harris CF ATL |
| 100 | B_Don | M. Busch 1B CHC |
| 101 | Sean Millerick | D. Williams RP NYM |
| 102 | Chris Towers | C. Burns SP CIN |
| 103 | Raymond Atherton | J. Altuve 2B HOU |
| 104 | George Kurtz | J. Caglianone RF KC |
| 105 | Peter Clement | S. Perez C KC |
| 106 | Jeremy Heist | T. Glasnow SP LAD |
| 107 | Doc Eisenhauer | A. Ramirez C MIA |
| 108 | Scott White | R. Iglesias RP ATL |
| Round 10 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 109 | Scott White | N. Pivetta SP SD |
| 110 | Doc Eisenhauer | N. McLean SP NYM |
| 111 | Jeremy Heist | R. Helsley RP BAL |
| 112 | Peter Clement | B. Woodruff SP MIL |
| 113 | George Kurtz | O. Albies 2B ATL |
| 114 | Raymond Atherton | K. Stowers LF MIA |
| 115 | Chris Towers | K. Gausman SP TOR |
| 116 | Sean Millerick | S. Alcantara SP MIA |
| 117 | B_Don | J. Adell CF LAA |
| 118 | Mike Nelson | D. Baldwin C ATL |
| 119 | Nick Fox | J. Hoffman RP TOR |
| 120 | Frank Stampfl | N. Lodolo SP CIN |
| Round 11 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 121 | Frank Stampfl | Y. Diaz DH TB |
| 122 | Nick Fox | B. Lowe 2B PIT |
| 123 | Mike Nelson | C. Schlittler SP NYY |
| 124 | B_Don | X. Edwards 2B MIA |
| 125 | Sean Millerick | J. Marsee CF MIA |
| 126 | Chris Towers | Y. Diaz C HOU |
| 127 | Raymond Atherton | Z. Wheeler SP PHI |
| 128 | George Kurtz | S. Strider SP ATL |
| 129 | Peter Clement | J. Misiorowski SP MIL |
| 130 | Jeremy Heist | L. Robert CF NYM |
| 131 | Doc Eisenhauer | J. Holliday 2B BAL |
| 132 | Scott White | T. Yesavage SP TOR |
| Round 12 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 133 | Scott White | G. Williams SP CLE |
| 134 | Doc Eisenhauer | A. Burleson LF STL |
| 135 | Jeremy Heist | S. Torkelson 1B DET |
| 136 | Peter Clement | N. Eovaldi SP TEX |
| 137 | George Kurtz | M. Trout DH LAA |
| 138 | Raymond Atherton | B. Chandler SP PIT |
| 139 | Chris Towers | E. Sheehan SP LAD |
| 140 | Sean Millerick | B. Snell SP LAD |
| 141 | B_Don | C. Simpson CF TB |
| 142 | Mike Nelson | K. Bubic SP KC |
| 143 | Nick Fox | K. Okamoto 3B TOR |
| 144 | Frank Stampfl | B. Stott 2B PHI |
| Round 13 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 145 | Frank Stampfl | M. Chapman 3B SF |
| 146 | Nick Fox | W. Smith C LAD |
| 147 | Mike Nelson | I. Paredes 3B HOU |
| 148 | B_Don | K. Jansen RP DET |
| 149 | Sean Millerick | T. Megill RP MIL |
| 150 | Chris Towers | S. Stewart 1B CIN |
| 151 | Raymond Atherton | M. Gore SP TEX |
| 152 | George Kurtz | W. Adames SS SF |
| 153 | Peter Clement | M. King SP SD |
| 154 | Jeremy Heist | N. Marte RF CIN |
| 155 | Doc Eisenhauer | I. Herrera DH STL |
| 156 | Scott White | E. Pagan RP CIN |
| Round 14 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 157 | Scott White | D. Palencia RP CHC |
| 158 | Doc Eisenhauer | D. Santana RP PIT |
| 159 | Jeremy Heist | T. Imai SP HOU |
| 160 | Peter Clement | R. Pepiot SP TB |
| 161 | George Kurtz | C. Estevez RP KC |
| 162 | Raymond Atherton | P. Fairbanks RP MIA |
| 163 | Chris Towers | G. Jax RP TB |
| 164 | Sean Millerick | D. Varsho CF TOR |
| 165 | B_Don | L. Castillo SP SEA |
| 166 | Mike Nelson | C. Horton SP CHC |
| 167 | Nick Fox | R. Laureano LF SD |
| 168 | Frank Stampfl | S. Dominguez RP CHW |
| Round 15 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 169 | Frank Stampfl | L. Butler RF ATH |
| 170 | Nick Fox | R. Walker RP SF |
| 171 | Mike Nelson | C. Rafaela CF BOS |
| 172 | B_Don | R. Ray SP SF |
| 173 | Sean Millerick | M. Muncy 3B LAD |
| 174 | Chris Towers | A. Uribe RP MIL |
| 175 | Raymond Atherton | R. Suarez RP ATL |
| 176 | George Kurtz | W. Contreras 1B BOS |
| 177 | Peter Clement | D. Swanson SS CHC |
| 178 | Jeremy Heist | J. Polanco DH NYM |
| 179 | Doc Eisenhauer | R. Weathers SP NYY |
| 180 | Scott White | T. Hernandez RF LAD |
| Round 16 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 181 | Scott White | T. Ward LF BAL |
| 182 | Doc Eisenhauer | R. O’Brien RP STL |
| 183 | Jeremy Heist | B. Abreu RP HOU |
| 184 | Peter Clement | S. Gray SP BOS |
| 185 | George Kurtz | A. Barger 3B TOR |
| 186 | Raymond Atherton | R. Suarez SP BOS |
| 187 | Chris Towers | A. Pages CF LAD |
| 188 | Sean Millerick | K. Griffin SS PIT |
| 189 | B_Don | D. Rasmussen SP TB |
| 190 | Mike Nelson | B. Reynolds RF PIT |
| 191 | Nick Fox | S. Imanaga SP CHC |
| 192 | Frank Stampfl | R. Lewis 3B MIN |
| Round 17 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 193 | Frank Stampfl | B. Doyle CF COL |
| 194 | Nick Fox | S. Kwan LF CLE |
| 195 | Mike Nelson | J. Musgrove SP SD |
| 196 | B_Don | J. Cantillo RP CLE |
| 197 | Sean Millerick | J. Profar LF ATL |
| 198 | Chris Towers | J. Wetherholt SS STL |
| 199 | Raymond Atherton | K. Manzardo DH CLE |
| 200 | George Kurtz | S. Baz SP BAL |
| 201 | Peter Clement | M. Boyd SP CHC |
| 202 | Jeremy Heist | J. Aranda 1B TB |
| 203 | Doc Eisenhauer | G. Cole SP NYY |
| 204 | Scott White | C. Rodon SP NYY |
| Round 18 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 205 | Scott White | C. Montgomery SS CHW |
| 206 | Doc Eisenhauer | A. Painter SP PHI |
| 207 | Jeremy Heist | T. Bibee SP CLE |
| 208 | Peter Clement | S. McClanahan SP TB |
| 209 | George Kurtz | M. Semien 2B NYM |
| 210 | Raymond Atherton | I. Happ LF CHC |
| 211 | Chris Towers | D. Lile RF WAS |
| 212 | Sean Millerick | M. Murakami 1B CHW |
| 213 | B_Don | G. Stanton DH NYY |
| 214 | Mike Nelson | D. Crews RF WAS |
| 215 | Nick Fox | J. Wilson SS ATH |
| 216 | Frank Stampfl | E. Cabrera SP CHC |
| Round 19 | ||
| Pos | ||
