The latest GDPNow USA GPD estimate is 5.3 percent — January 14, 2026. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday he expected first quarter GDP growth in the United States would exceed 5% in the first quarter of 2026, adding that its interest rates were too high and were holding back stronger growth. The U.S. economy saw strong growth in Q3 2025, with real GDP increasing by an annualized 4.3%, building on Q2’s 3.8% rise.
China 2025 GDP was 5.0%, meeting government’s target. Q4 GDP growth slows to 4.5% y/y, just above market forecast. For Q1 2026, analysts like ANZ predict China to have weak GDP growth, potentially in the low-to-mid 4% range (year-on-year), with limited stimulus impact and a focus on services rebound. Overall 2026 GDP is projected around 4.5% for China.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.3 percent on January 14, up from 5.1 percent on January 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 3.0 per